Exoplanets with ELT-METIS I: Estimating the Direct Imaging Exoplanet Yield Around Nearby Stars

<p>Direct imaging is a powerful exoplanet discovery technique that is complimentary to other techniques with great promise in the era of 30-meter class telescopes. Space-based transit surveys have revolutionized our understanding of the frequency of planets at small orbital radii around sun-like stars. The next generation of extremely large ground-based telescopes will have the angular resolution and sensitivity to directly image planets with R < 4 Earth radii around the very nearest stars. Here we predict yields from a direct imaging survey of a volume-limited sample of sun-like stars with the Mid-Infrared ELT Imager and Spectrograph (METIS) instrument, planned for the 39-m European Southern Observatory (ESO) Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) that is expected to be operational towards the end of the decade. Using Kepler occurrence rates, a sample of stars with spectral types A-K within 6.5 pc, and simulated contrast curves based on an advanced model of what is achievable from coronagraphic imaging with adaptive optics, we estimate the expected yield from METIS using Monte Carlo simulations. We find the METIS expected yield of small planets in the N2 band (10.10 - 12.40 μm) is 1.15 planets which is greater than similar observations in the L (3.70 - 3.95 μm) and M (4.70 - 4.90 μm) bands. We also determine a 42% chance of detecting at least one Jovian planet in the background limited regime assuming a 1-hour integration. We calculate the yield per star and estimate optimal observing revisit times to increase the yield. We also analyze this survey if performed in the northern hemisphere and find there are additional targets worth considering. Finally, we present an observing strategy in order to maximize the possible yield for limited telescope time, resulting in 1.52 expected planets in the N2 band.</p>

The paradox of youth for ALMA planet candidates

ABSTRACT Recent ALMA observations indicate that the majority of bright protoplanetary discs show signatures of young moderately massive planets. I show that this result is paradoxical. The planets should evolve away from their observed states by radial migration and gas accretion in about 1 per cent of the system age. These systems should then hatch tens of giant planets in their lifetime, and there should exist a very large population of bright planet-less discs; none of this is observationally supported. An alternative scenario, in which the population of bright ALMA discs is dominated by secondary discs recently rejuvenated by deposition of new gas, is proposed. The data are well explained if the gaseous mass of the discs is comparable to a Jovian planet mass, and they last a small fraction of a Million years. Self-disruptions of dusty gas giant protoplanets, previously predicted in the context of the Tidal Downsizing theory of planet formation, provide a suitable mechanism for such injections of new fuel, and yield disc and planet properties commensurate with ALMA observations. If this scenario is correct, then the secondary discs have gas-to-dust ratios considerably smaller than 100, and long look ALMA and NIR/optical observations of dimmer targets should uncover dusty, not yet disrupted, gas clumps with sizes of order an au. Alternatively, secondary discs could originate from late external deposition of gas into the system, in which case we expect widespread signatures of warped outer discs that have not yet come into alignment with the planets.

A Jovian planet in an eccentric 11.5 day orbit around HD 1397 discovered by TESS

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite TESS has begun a new age of exoplanet discoveries around bright host stars. We present the discovery of HD 1397b (TOI-120.01), a giant planet in an 11.54-day eccentric orbit around a bright (V= 7.9) G-type subgiant. We estimate both host star and planetary parameters consistently usingEXOFASTv2based on TESS time-series photometry of transits and radial velocity measurements with CORALIE and MINERVA-Australis. We also present high angular resolution imaging with NaCo to rule out any nearby eclipsing binaries. We find that HD 1397b is a Jovian planet, with a mass of 0.415 ± 0.020MJand a radius of 1.026 ± 0.026RJ. Characterising giant planets in short-period eccentric orbits, such as HD 1397b, is important for understanding and testing theories for the formation and migration of giant planets as well as planet-star interactions.