This article examines the relationship between pact-making and
democratic transitions in Nicaragua (1988–1997) and El Salvador (1990–1997).
We argue that the process of elite bargaining about regime change affects
the
prospects for the consolidation of democracy. We emphasise three factors:
(1) the
choices key actors make as they bargain about bargaining, (2) their willingness
to
‘under-utilise’ their power and (3) the influence of historical
and structural
contingencies upon the key choices made. Essential to our discussion of
historical
and structural contingencies is the interrelation of domestic and international
actors and the importance of demilitarisation and institutional reform.
We argue
that these three factors favoured El Salvador more than Nicaragua, although
neither nation has overcome the political polarisation characteristic of
transitional
regimes.
