Coup Agency and Prospects for Democracy

This research note introduces new global data on military coups. Conventional aggregate data so far have conflated two distinct types of coups. Military interventions by leading officers are coups “from above,” characterized by political power struggles within authoritarian elite coalitions where officers move against civilian elites, executive incumbents, and their loyal security personnel. By contrast, power grabs by officers from the lower and middle ranks are coups “from below,” where military personnel outside of the political elite challenge sitting incumbents, their loyalists, and the regime itself. Disaggregating coup types offers leverage to revise important questions about the causes and consequences of military intervention in politics. This research note illustrates that coup attempts from the top of the military hierarchy are much more likely to be successful than coups from the lower and middle ranks of the military hierarchy. Moreover, coups from the top recalibrate authoritarian elite coalitions and serve to sustain autocratic rule; they rarely produce an opening for a democratic transition. Successful coups from below, by contrast, can result in the breakdown of authoritarian regimes and generate an opening for democratic transitions.

Requiem for the Unipolar Moment in Nagorny Karabakh

The Minsk Group, led by the United States, France, and Russia, brokered an end to the first Karabakh war of 1992-94, won by Armenia-backed secessionists in the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. That mediation embodied the ideals of the mid-1990s unipolar moment, which assumed that liberalized markets and democratic transitions would converge internally to resolve legacy conflicts in postsocialist states while bringing them into convergence externally with Euro-Atlantic nations. Those assumptions withered away over the next quarter-century. Neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia transitioned to liberal democracy. Backed by an increasingly assertive Turkey, Azerbaijan prevailed in a bloody war in 2020. This time, the regional authoritarian powers, Russia and Turkey, are overseeing what could be a test case for a new form of “illiberal peace.”

Growing up in the Third Wave: democratic transitions and support for redistribution

Variation in experiences of democratic transition have durable effects on political attitudes. I find exposure to distributive narratives of democracy during democratic transitions between the ages of 18 and 25 has a durable positive effect on support for redistribution by tying economic redistribution to the idea of democracy. Using survey data from 28 countries that transitioned during the Third Wave (1980-2000), I show that these effects cannot be caused by any global period effect, survey period effect, birth cohort effect, or country-specific time-invariant characteristics. They are also robust to the inclusion of past experiences of the economy and welfare state, individual controls, and a range of modeling strategies. Using a different source of variation in democratic transitions from 2001-2020, I show that transitions cause attitudes and not the other way around. I argue that many failures of democracy in Third Wave countries are caused by the nature of the transitions from which they originated: distributive transitions produced democratic collective imaginaries irreconcilable with the amount of democratic redistribution that was forthcoming.

The Temporal Constitution of Democracies

The specific institutionalization of time is a major defining element of democracies and a vulnerable condition of their stability and legitimacy. The first part of the chapter covers the regular temporal routines of democratic systems. In the synchronic dimension, it considers the time requirements of democratic practices and examines the timed relationship between different levels and actors of the democratic system. In the diachronic dimension, the chapter asks for the time horizons that temporal constitutions of democracies create for political actors—related to future expectations and to past experiences. The second part of the chapter turns to time challenges democracies face today. First, it addresses the issue of social acceleration that goes along with potential vulnerabilities and adaptabilities of democratic systems. Second, the chapter discusses problems created by situations of crisis in states of emergency and in democratic transitions. Based on that, the chapter draws some conclusions for future research.

A time to throw stones, a time to reap: how long does it take for democratic transitions to improve institutional outcomes?

We study the impact of democratic transitions on institutional outcomes. Using an event study method and a sample of 135 countries over the period 1984–2016, we observe that democratic transitions improve institutional outcomes. The effect appears within 3 years after the transition year. The results are robust to alternative definitions of transitions, alternative codings of pre- and post-transition years, and changing the set of control variables. We also find that both full and partial democratizations improve institutional outcomes. Transitions out of military regimes or communist autocracies do not. The effect of democratization depends on GDP per capita, education, and the regularity of the transition. Finally, the evidence suggests that the effect is particularly clear on the corruption, law and order, and military in politics dimensions of the index.

The Constitution of the Philippines and transformative constitutionalism

This article examines the 1987 Constitution of the Philippines’ provisions on social and economic rights and welfare. It considers how the 1987 Constitution fits within the post-liberal paradigm of ‘transformative’ constitutional texts that emerged during democratic transitions in the 1980s and 1990s. It then analyses how the Supreme Court of the Philippines responded to the constitutional call for egalitarian socio-economic reform in the first fifteen years after the People Power revolution. The article highlights how the 1987 Constitution envisions far-reaching, progressive socio-economic change, and incorporates both social and economic rights as well as open-ended policy goals in this regard. The article argues that this hybrid approach to distributive justice creates a distinctive set of interpretive challenges for the judiciary. It then argues that the Philippine Supreme Court’s approach to these provisions in the years following the transition to democracy was perfunctory and somewhat inchoate. The court affirmed its jurisdiction over these provisions, but did not develop meaningful standards or principles in relation to them. The article points out that transformative constitutional texts place difficult demands on the judiciary in relation to social and economic rights. They prompt the judiciary into unfamiliar domains. At the same time, institutional legitimacy – including legitimacy on questions of distributive justice – requires judges to sustain the sense of a cogent boundary between constitutional law and politics. The article argues that these challenges were heightened in the Philippines by the textual ambiguity of the 1987 Constitution as well as the relative dearth of jurisprudential resources at the time. It concludes by considering the implications of the Philippines experience for the design of transformative constitutions.

Women's Rights and Democratic Transitions

Democratization provides women an opportunity to represent their interests/issues effectively. Institutional change of democratic transition proves women's movement's best chance to push for gender-sensitive policy outcomes. This case study critically examines three selected democratic transitions' workings and assesses the cross-cases variation in women's gendered outcomes (South Africa, Chile, and Pakistan). The research questions state as "how and why did women's movements perform differently in achieving gendered policy outcomes in the democratic transitions?” Engaging comparative framework and the qualitative approach, the study shows that the socio-political context, historical legacies, and party alliances have played vital role in varying gendered outcomes.