Flood Risk Management with Transboundary Conflict and Cooperation Dynamics in the Kabul River Basin

The Kabul River, while having its origin in Afghanistan, has a primary tributary, the Konar River, which originates in Pakistan and enters Afghanistan near Barikot-Arandu. The Kabul River then re-enters Pakistan near Laalpur, Afghanistan making it a true transboundary river. The catastrophic flood events due to major snowmelt events in the Hindu Kush mountains occur every other year, inundating many major urban centers. This study investigates the flood risk under 30 climate and dam management scenarios to assess opportunities for transboundary water management strategy in the Kabul River Basin (KRB). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a watershed-scale hydraulic modeling tool that was employed to forecast peak flows to characterize flood inundation areas using the river flood routing modelling tool Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System -HEC-RAS for the Nowshera region. This study shows how integrated transboundary water management in the KRB can play a vital catalyst role with significant socio-economic benefits for both nations. The study proposes a KRB-specific agreement, where flood risk management is a significant driver that can bring both countries to work together under the Equitable Water Resource Utilization Doctrine to save lives in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The findings show that flood mitigation relying on collaborative efforts for both upstream and downstream riparian states is highly desirable.

The science-policy interface in transboundary water management regimes: the case of Lake Victoria

The degree that science is integrated into environmental policy processes is dependent on the policymakers' perception of the role and utilization of science in policy development. Using existing literature and interviews with key individuals in North America and Uganda engaged in environmental policy development, this thesis argues that adopting a positivist approach to policy development strengthens the science-policy interface and can result in more effective policies. This interface is examined in the context of transboundary water management, and specifically in East Africa's Lake Victoria management regime. This paper illustrates how the relationship between science and policy is evolving in a difficult ecological, socio-economic and political setting, and how the tensions that exist are attempting to be resolved. It is observed that the science-policy divergence can be exacerbated in transboundary areas. This requires scientists and policymakers to be cognizant of these challenges, and to adopt tools to strengthen the interface for the development of effective transboundary water management regimes.

The science-policy interface in transboundary water management regimes: the case of Lake Victoria

The degree that science is integrated into environmental policy processes is dependent on the policymakers' perception of the role and utilization of science in policy development. Using existing literature and interviews with key individuals in North America and Uganda engaged in environmental policy development, this thesis argues that adopting a positivist approach to policy development strengthens the science-policy interface and can result in more effective policies. This interface is examined in the context of transboundary water management, and specifically in East Africa's Lake Victoria management regime. This paper illustrates how the relationship between science and policy is evolving in a difficult ecological, socio-economic and political setting, and how the tensions that exist are attempting to be resolved. It is observed that the science-policy divergence can be exacerbated in transboundary areas. This requires scientists and policymakers to be cognizant of these challenges, and to adopt tools to strengthen the interface for the development of effective transboundary water management regimes.

An Analysis of Conflict and Cooperation Dynamics over Water Events in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin

Riparian countries have their respective values and priorities for water management, and their values of shared water often has possible impacts for their propensity to involve in cooperative management and adhere to treaties/agreements. Improving transboundary water management therefore firstly requires nuance understanding of the changing values and interests of each riparian country to better understand factors that encourage and discourage changes toward cooperation or conflict. This paper provides understanding of the evolution of conflict and cooperation dynamics in Lancang-Mekong River Basin with in-depth analysis of the perspectives of multiple countries. Newspaper articles were used as a key data source as it provides insights into events reported on by the media that are representative of each country/sector they are published within. The results depict a continual trend of cooperative sentiments towards water events occurring within the region. The six riparian states have had a greater average sentiment score for cooperation than international countries for the majority of the study period showing that the region perceived transboundary water management more positively than global audiences. Except for few outliers, the trend also shows that countries further downstream showed lower cooperative sentiments. Dam infrastructure was often negatively reported, thus, it is likely a major contributor to conflict for the Lancang-Mekong River Basin, while events that are positively reported are those that aid in connecting leaders and project developers between riparian countries including meetings, bilateral and multilateral cooperation and development projects. These findings provide the basis for further revealing the mechanism of cooperation and conflicts through understanding these inherent and diverse perspectives of each riparian country, we can gain an insight into the underlying interests that create conflictive or cooperative environments and ultimately predict and manage cooperation/conflict in transboundary rivers.