Mean exit time in irregularly-shaped annular and composite disc domains

Calculating the mean exit time (MET) for models of diffusion is a classical problem in statistical physics, with various applications in biophysics, economics and heat and mass transfer. While many exact results for MET are known for diffusion in simple geometries involving homogeneous materials, calculating MET for diffusion in realistic geometries involving heterogeneous materials is typically limited to repeated stochastic simulations or numerical solutions of the associated boundary value problem (BVP). In this work we derive exact solutions for the MET in irregular annular domains, including some applications where diffusion occurs in heterogenous media. These solutions are obtained by taking the exact results for MET in an annulus, and then constructing various perturbation solutions to account for the irregular geometries involved. These solutions, with a range of boundary conditions, are implemented symbolically and compare very well with averaged data from repeated stochastic simulations and with numerical solutions of the associated BVP. Software to implement the exact solutions is available on \href{https://github.com/ProfMJSimpson/Exit_time}{GitHub}.

Exit time as a measure of ecological resilience

Ecological resilience is the magnitude of the largest perturbation from which a system can still recover to its original state. However, a transition into another state may often be invoked by a series of minor synergistic perturbations rather than a single big one. We show how resilience can be estimated in terms of average life expectancy, accounting for this natural regime of variability. We use time series to fit a model that captures the stochastic as well as the deterministic components. The model is then used to estimate the mean exit time from the basin of attraction. This approach offers a fresh angle to anticipating the chance of a critical transition at a time when high-resolution time series are becoming increasingly available.