Observability of zero-angular-momentum sources near Kerr black holes

We revisit monochromatic and isotropic photon emissions from the zero-angular-momentum sources (ZAMSs) near a Kerr black hole. We investigate the escape probability of the photons that can reach to infinity and study the energy shifts of these escaping photons, which could be expressed as the functions of the source radius and the black hole spin. We study the cases for generic source radius and black hole spin, but we pay special attention to the near-horizon (near-)extremal Kerr ((near-)NHEK) cases. We reproduce the relevant numerical results using a more efficient method and get new analytical results for (near-)extremal cases. The main non-trivial results are: in the NHEK region of a (near-)extremal Kerr black hole, the escape probability for a ZAMS tends to $$\frac{7}{24}\approx 29.17\%$$ 7 24 ≈ 29.17 % , independent of the NHEK radius; at the innermost of the photon shell (IPS) in the near-NHEK region, the escape probability for a ZAMS tends to $$\begin{aligned} \frac{5}{12} -\frac{1}{\sqrt{7}} + \frac{2}{\sqrt{7}\pi }\arctan \frac{1}{\sqrt{7}}\approx 12.57\% . \end{aligned}$$ 5 12 - 1 7 + 2 7 π arctan 1 7 ≈ 12.57 % .

On the Time Transition Between Short- and Long-Time Regimes of Colloidal Particles in External Periodic Potentials

The dynamics of colloidal particles at infinite dilution, under the influence of periodic external potentials, is studied here via experiments and numerical simulations for two representative potentials. From the experimental side, we analyzed the motion of a colloidal tracer in a one-dimensional array of fringes produced by the interference of two coherent laser beams, providing in this way an harmonic potential. The numerical analysis has been performed via Brownian dynamics (BD) simulations. The BD simulations correctly reproduced the experimental position- and time-dependent density of probability of the colloidal tracer in the short-times regime. The long-time diffusion coefficient has been obtained from the corresponding numerical mean square displacement (MSD). Similarly, a simulation of a random walker in a one dimensional array of adjacent cages with a probability of escaping from one cage to the next cage is one of the most simple models of a periodic potential, displaying two diffusive regimes separated by a dynamical caging period. The main result of this study is the observation that, in both potentials, it is seen that the critical time t*, defined as the specific time at which a change of curvature in the MSD is observed, remains approximately constant as a function of the height barrier U0 of the harmonic potential or the associated escape probability of the random walker. In order to understand this behavior, histograms of the first passage time of the tracer have been calculated for several height barriers U0 or escape probabilities. These histograms display a maximum at the most likely first passage time t′, which is approximately independent of the height barrier U0, or the associated escape probability, and it is located very close to the critical time t*. This behavior suggests that the critical time t*, defining the crossover between short- and long-time regimes, can be identified as the most likely first passage time t′ as a first approximation.

Dynamic Bayesian Network-Based Escape Probability Estimation for Coach Fire Accidents

Coach emergency escape research is an effective measure to reduce casualties under serious vehicle fire accidents. A novel experiment method employing a wireless transducer was implemented and the head rotation speed, rotation moment and rotation duration were collected as the input variables for the classification and regression tree (CART) model. Based on this model, the classification result explicitly pointed out that the exit searching efficiency was evolving. By ignoring the last three unimportant factors from the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the ultimate Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) was built with the temporal part of the CART output and the time-independent part of the vehicle characteristics. Simulation showed that the most efficient exit searching period is the middle escape stage, which is 10 seconds after the emergency signal is triggered, and the escape probability clearly increases with the efficient exit searching. Furthermore, receiving emergency escape training contributes to a significant escape probability improvement of more than 10%. Compared with different failure modes, the emergency hammer layout and door reliability have a more significant influence on the escape probability improvement than aisle condition. Based on the simulation results, the escape probability will significantly drop below 0.55 if the emergency hammers, door, and aisle are all in a failure state.

Quantifying the parameter dependent basin of the unsafe regime of asymmetric Lévy-noise-induced critical transitions

In real systems, the unpredictable jump changes of the random environment can induce the critical transitions (CTs) between two non-adjacent states, which are more catastrophic. Taking an asymmetric Lévy-noise-induced tri-stable model with desirable, sub-desirable, and undesirable states as a prototype class of real systems, a prediction of the noise-induced CTs from the desirable state directly to the undesirable one is carried out. We first calculate the region that the current state of the given model is absorbed into the undesirable state based on the escape probability, which is named as the absorbed region. Then, a new concept of the parameter dependent basin of the unsafe regime (PDBUR) under the asymmetric Lévy noise is introduced. It is an efficient tool for approximately quantifying the ranges of the parameters, where the noise-induced CTs from the desirable state directly to the undesirable one may occur. More importantly, it may provide theoretical guidance for us to adopt some measures to avert a noise-induced catastrophic CT.

Simulation-Based Evaluation of the Estimation Methods of Far-Red Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence Escape Probability in Discontinuous Forest Canopies

The escape probability of Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) can be remotely estimated using reflectance measurements based on spectral invariants theory. This can then be used to correct the effects of canopy structure on canopy-leaving SIF. However, the feasibility of these estimation methods is untested in heterogeneous vegetation such as the discontinuous forest canopy layer under evaluation here. In this study, the Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer (DART) model is used to simulate canopy-leaving SIF, canopy total emitted SIF, canopy interceptance, and the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR) in order to evaluate the estimation methods of SIF escape probability in discontinuous forest canopies. Our simulation results show that the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) can be used to partly eliminate the effects of background reflectance on the estimation of SIF escape probability in most cases, but fails to produce accurate estimations if the background is partly or totally covered by vegetation. We also found that SIF escape probabilities estimated at a high solar zenith angle have better estimation accuracy than those estimated at a lower solar zenith angle. Our results show that additional errors will be introduced to the estimation of SIF escape probability with the use of satellite products, especially when the product of leaf area index (LAI) and clumping index (CI) was underestimated. In other results, fAPAR has comparable estimation accuracy of SIF escape probability when compared to canopy interceptance. Additionally, fAPAR for the entire canopy has better estimation accuracy of SIF escape probability than fPAR for leaf only in sparse forest canopies. These results help us to better understand the current estimation results of SIF escape probability based on spectral invariants theory, and to improve its estimation accuracy in discontinuous forest canopies.

Mean exit time and escape probability for the stochastic logistic growth model with multiplicative α-stable Lévy noise

In this paper, we formulate a stochastic logistic fish growth model driven by both white noise and non-Gaussian noise. We focus our study on the mean time to extinction, escape probability to measure the noise-induced extinction probability and the Fokker–Planck equation for fish population [Formula: see text]. In the Gaussian case, these quantities satisfy local partial differential equations while in the non-Gaussian case, they satisfy nonlocal partial differential equations. Following a discussion of existence, uniqueness and stability, we calculate numerical approximations of the solutions of those equations. For each noise model we then compare the behaviors of the mean time to extinction and the solution of the Fokker–Planck equation as growth rate [Formula: see text], carrying capacity [Formula: see text], intensity of Gaussian noise [Formula: see text], noise intensity [Formula: see text] and stability index [Formula: see text] vary. The MET from the interval [Formula: see text] at the right boundary is finite if [Formula: see text]. For [Formula: see text], the MET from [Formula: see text] at this boundary is infinite. A larger stability index [Formula: see text] is less likely leading to the extinction of the fish population.

Influence of extreme events modeled by Lévy flight on global thermohaline circulation stability

How will extreme events due to human activities and climate change affect the oceanic thermohaline circulation is a key concern in climate predictions. The stability of the thermohaline circulation with respect to extreme events, such as fresh-water oscillations, greenhouse gas accumulations and collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, is examined using a conceptual stochastic Stommel two-compartment model. The extreme fluctuations are modeled by symmetric α-stable Lévy motions whose pathways are cádlág functions with at most a countable number of jumps. The mean first passage time, escape probability and stochastic basin of attraction are used to perform the stability analysis of on (off) equilibrium states. Our results argue that for model with weak fresh-water forcing strength, the greatest threat to the stability of the on-state represents noise with low jumps and higher frequency that can be seen as civilization-induced greenhouse gas accumulation. On the other hand, the off-state stability is more vulnerable to the agitations with moderate jumps and frequencies which can be interpreted as wind- driven circulations towards higher latitudes. Under the repercussion of stochastic noise, on to off transitions are more expected in the model if the fresh-water influx is strong. Moreover, transitions from one metastable state to another are equiprobable when the fresh-water input induces a symmetric potential well.