Concluding remarks

This last chapter sum up what can be considered central aspects and elements to be aware of if connecting populism, welfare chauvinism and developments in welfare states. Furthermore, it presents a few suggestions for future development.

Has social cohesion been eroded?

This chapter looks into stories about people’s perception on welfare state developments, why they do not trust the political system and the administration or what is often labelled the elite. The chapter draws on a number of recent books and articles trying to depict and understand people’s opinion – from Brexit to the vote for Trump – where one might witness a contradiction between possible self-interest and support for populist viewpoints.

What form has the development in welfare spending taken?

This chapter look into the size of the overall spending on welfare as a percentage of the total economy, measured by GDP, as this is one indicator of whether in relative terms social policy is actually declining or not, albeit it cannot stand alone. This chapter tries to show and depict the development from before the financial crisis until the current time, insofar as comparative data are available.

Basic concepts

Voters and citizens perception of what would be the best way for a welfare state to develop are often analysed by a variety of concepts. They will, albeit shortly, be presented as this will help framing the presentation of the content of the book. The basic concept expected to be included is: welfare chauvinism, legitimacy, deserving/undeserving, populism and ideas. This also as several of these concepts are not always used consistently and/or having connotations that implicitly indicates a normative position. Still, these concepts are influential, and some has been for many years, in the understanding of why welfare states have developed as they have.

What is it all about?

It presents the key question the book will delve into: Key points and questions for the book to delve into are: Will populist erode or support welfare states development? Can populist and chauvinist stance explain specific traits in welfare states development? Is it possible that populist development will imply restructuring of the welfare state, also even if there is decreased trust in welfare state administration and politicians? Finally, it gives an overview of the book.

Populism, welfare chauvinism and hostility towards immigrants

This chapter looks into the development in populism, welfare chauvinism and hostility toward immigrants in different welfare regimes. This as it seems that the attitudes towards those who rightly or wrongly are taking the jobs and/or using the benefit system can help in the deeper understanding of populism and welfare chauvinism.

What do we know about citizens’ perception of the welfare state?

This chapter deals with and uses several surveys and studies that have tried to depict citizens’ (and thereby voters’) perception of what welfare states should do and what they do not support, or at least support to a lesser degree, as the responsibilities of the welfare state

Dualisation and the labour market

The chapter depicts how and what the consequence for social cohesion of recent years development on the labour market has been. This includes a short description of possible future trends on labour market and how they can influence welfare state developments. It further includes reference to the Europeanization and globalisation discussion, as this also is an issue in relation to the labour market development, including how this might have an impact on preferences for state intervention.

Why inequality matters

This chapter focuses on why inequality matters for welfare states, why we should have an interest in this topic, and how this is related to issues of populism and welfare chauvinism. This is done by trying to systematize the knowledge we have on why inequality matters for, and in relation to, economic growth, for health and for social cohesion. It also discusses why trickle-down economics do not work. The development in inequality is analysed by showing the development using traditional aspects such as the Gini coefficient, but also reflecting on, and showing, data on inequality in health and how this can be seen as connected to change in economic inequality.