Problem Formulation and Model Development

Abstract The research aimed to test the 2015 Integrated Data Base (IDB) reliability as a source in selecting poverty alleviation program’s target and to develop community's empowerment model. The research conducted in 12 Kelurahan in Palembang City and 2 villages in Ogan-Komering-Ilir Regency from February 2017 to November 2018. Two-hundred-and-fifty-six participants were systematically selected from the 2015 IDB list. The data collected through FGD, interviews and participatory observation. The data analyzed and interpreted based on the input-process-output approach. The research used three stages i.e. problem formulation, system’s components identification, and empowerment model development. The research showed the use of the 2015 IDB resulted in 44.53% right-on-target within range 14.29 to 73.68% per kelurahan/village. The replacement of the targeted participant tended not in the 2015 IDB list. The unfamiliarity of Head of RT to the 2015 IDB suspected as the cause. The replacement was caused by: had moved to another location (91.74%), already work (4.13%), impaired health (3.30%) and died (1%). The participant with different education level had an equal chance to accept empowerment program. The influence of the community’s leader was an important factor in the empowerment program. The reliability of the 2015 IDB depended on the ability of program manager in diminishing of identity politics at the location. To increase the responsiveness, the community's assets also need to be developed alongside individual assets. The empowerment program is indeed an iterative process rather than linear, the program manager should aware of the constant changing of the participant needs. Keywords:

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ANALISIS SISTEM DINAMIK USAHATANI TANAM SAYURAN BERKELANJUTAN BERBASIS PENGENDALIAN HAMA TERPADU DI KABUPATEN TANGGAMUS, PROVINSI LAMPUNG

EnviroScienteae ◽

10.20527/es.v15i2.6974 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 15 (2) ◽

pp. 277

Author(s):

Sudiono Sudiono ◽

S. H. Sutjahyo ◽

P. Hidayat ◽

R. Kurniawan

Keyword(s):

Dynamic Model ◽

System Analysis ◽

Model Simulation ◽

Model Development ◽

Problem Formulation ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Vegetable Crops ◽

Land Area ◽

Analysis Problem ◽

Current Scenario

The purpose of this study was to develop a dynamic model of sustainable farming based on an integrated pest management system in upland vegetable crops in Tanggamus Regency, Lampung Province. Dynamic system analysis with powersim with the stages of model development, namely needs analysis, problem formulation, system identification, model simulation, and model testing. The results of the compilation of the dynamic model parameters, namely the current scenario (without intervention), in 2017 farmer households amounted to 104,929 households which increased in 2030 to 128,613 households farmers' income at the end of the simulation period to Rp 434,526,807 from a land area of 4,029 ha, scenario pessimistic in 2017 farmer households amounted to 100,753 households which experienced an increase in 2030 to 116,252 households with income in this scenario to Rp 470,170,405 from a land area of 4,243 ha, and an optimistic scenario for 2017 farmers' households amounting to 100,111 households that had increased in the year 2030 became 107,892 households with total farmer's income of Rp 508,916,172 on an area of 4,464 ha.

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