Critical Slowing-down Framework for Monitoring Early Warning Signs of Surprise and Unforeseen Events

2017 ◽  
pp. 81-101
Author(s):  
Ivan Damnjanovic ◽  
Terje Aven
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning Signs ◽  
Critical Slowing Down ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Early Warning Signs

Early Warning Signs of Imminent Thermoacoustic Oscillations Through Critical Slowing Down

2018 ◽  
Vol 141 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang An ◽  
Adam M. Steinberg ◽  
Sandeep Jella ◽  
Gilles Bourque ◽  
Marc Füri
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Oscillation Amplitude ◽  
Warning Signs ◽  
Critical Slowing Down ◽  
Turbine Engine ◽  
Thermoacoustic Instabilities ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Kendall’S Τ ◽  
Time Calculation

Critical slowing down (CSD) is a phenomenon that is common to many complicated dynamical systems as they approach critical transitions/bifurcations. We demonstrate that pressure signals measured during the onset of thermoacoustic instabilities in a gas turbine engine test exhibit evidence of CSD well before the oscillation amplitude increases. CSD was detected through both the variance and the lag-1 auto-regressive coefficient in a rolling window of the pressure signal. Increasing trends in both metrics were quantified using Kendall's τ, and the robustness and statistical significance of the observed increases were confirmed. Changes in the CSD metrics could be detected several seconds prior to changes in the oscillation amplitude. Hence, real-time calculation of these metrics holds promise as early warning signals of impending thermoacoustic instabilities.

Journey towards best practices in acting on early warning signs in complex projects within a Russian context

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 828-843 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gulnara Sharaborova ◽  
Derek H.T. Walker ◽  
Guinevere Gilbert
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Warning Signs ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Doctoral Study ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Early Warning Signs ◽  
Complex Projects ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Phd Thesis

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a summary report and reflect on a recently passed PhD thesis (Sharaborova, 2014b) related to project management topics. Design/methodology/approach – This paper focussed on narrative reflection upon the completed doctoral journey. Findings – This paper presents the thesis findings, the research models, the guide in dealing with the early warning signs that developed as a result of this research and the contribution made to theory and practice. Research limitations/implications – Limitations of the research and the perspectives of the further diffusion of the research findings are considered. Originality/value – This TRN is a PhD candidate’s point of view as well as the opinions of the scientific research supervisors about the doctoral study and its outcome. The paper could be useful for novice researchers who wish to conduct their research and did not yet make a decision.

Early Warning Signs

Orthopedics ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 28 (10) ◽  
pp. 1147-1147
Author(s):  
Charles Sorbie
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning Signs ◽  
Early Warning Signs

scholarly journals Knowledge about Cervical Cancer Early Warning Signs and Symptoms, Risk Factors and Vaccination among Students at a Medical School in Al-Ahsa, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. 2529-2532 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdulaziz Ahmed Al-Darwish ◽  
Abdullah Fouad Al-Naim ◽  
Khalid Saleh Al-Mulhim ◽  
Nasser Khaled Al-Otaibi ◽  
Mohammed Saad Morsi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cervical Cancer ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Medical School ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Signs And Symptoms ◽  
Warning Signs ◽  
Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia ◽  
Early Warning Signs

Early warning signs: FDG-PET to diagnose bleomycin toxicity

2017 ◽  
Vol 58 (5) ◽  
pp. 1016-1018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Dickinson ◽  
Lou Irving ◽  
Michael Hofman
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Fdg Pet ◽  
Warning Signs ◽  
Early Warning Signs

scholarly journals Doctor fails: early warning signs of physician fatigue?

BMJ ◽  
2017 ◽  
pp. j5503 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eleni Linos ◽  
Natnaelle Admassu ◽  
Hala Sabry-Elnaggar ◽  
Peter MMC Li ◽  
Esther Choo
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning Signs ◽  
Early Warning Signs
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