scholarly journals Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: Climatology, variability, predictability, and trends

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Australian Region

scholarly journals A Diagnostic Study of the Intensity of Three Tropical Cyclones in the Australian Region. Part II: An Analytic Method for Determining the Time Variation of the Intensity of a Tropical Cyclone*

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
France Lajoie ◽  
Kevin Walsh
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Surface Pressure ◽  
Time Variation ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Ground Truth Data ◽  
Maximum Wind ◽  
Australian Region ◽  
Central Surface

Abstract The observed features discussed in Part I of this paper, regarding the intensification and dissipation of Tropical Cyclone Kathy, have been integrated in a simple mathematical model that can produce a reliable 15–30-h forecast of (i) the central surface pressure of a tropical cyclone, (ii) the sustained maximum surface wind and gust around the cyclone, (iii) the radial distribution of the sustained mean surface wind along different directions, and (iv) the time variation of the three intensity parameters previously mentioned. For three tropical cyclones in the Australian region that have some reliable ground truth data, the computed central surface pressure, the predicted maximum mean surface wind, and maximum gust were, respectively, within ±3 hPa and ±2 m s−1 of the observations. Since the model is only based on the circulation in the boundary layer and on the variation of the cloud structure in and around the cyclone, its accuracy strongly suggests that (i) the maximum wind is partly dependent on the large-scale environmental circulation within the boundary layer and partly on the size of the radius of maximum wind and (ii) that all factors that contribute one way or another to the intensity of a tropical cyclone act together to control the size of the eye radius and the central surface pressure.

scholarly journals Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones in the Australian Region

2004 ◽  
Vol 132 (12) ◽  
pp. 3049-3065 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard A. Dare ◽  
Noel E. Davidson
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Australian Region

scholarly journals Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: Climatology, variability, predictability, and trends

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Savin S. Chand ◽  
Andrew J. Dowdy ◽  
Hamish A. Ramsay ◽  
Kevin J.E Walsh ◽  
Kevin J. Tory ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Australian Region

scholarly journals A Diagnostic Study of the Intensity of Three Tropical Cyclones in the Australian Region. Part I: A Synopsis of Observed Features of Tropical Cyclone Kathy (1984)

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
France Lajoie ◽  
Kevin Walsh
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Cyclonic Circulation ◽  
Maximum Height ◽  
Diagnostic Study ◽  
Convective Activity ◽  
Cloud Data ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Australian Region ◽  
The North

Abstract Objective streamline analyses and digitized high-resolution IR satellite cloud data have been used to examine in detail the changes in the environmental circulation and in the cloud structure that took place in and around Tropical Cyclone Kathy (1984) when it started to intensify, and during its intensification and dissipation stages. The change of low-level circulation around Tropical Cyclone Kathy was measured by the change in the angle of inflow (α4) at a radius of 4° latitude from the cyclone center. When Kathy started to intensify, α4 increased suddenly from 20° to 42.5° in the northerly airstream to the north and northeast of the depression, and decreased to 0° to the south of the depression. At that stage the low-level circulation around the depression appeared as a giant swirl that started some 600 km to the north and northeast of the depression and spiraled inward toward its center, while trade air, which is usually cool, dry, and stable, did not enter the cyclonic circulation. The angle α4 remained the same during intensification. During the dissipation stage, α4 returned to 20° and trade air started to participate in the cyclonic circulation. Satellite cloud data were used to determine the origin, evolution, and importance of the feeder bands in the intensification of the cyclone, to follow the moist near-equatorial air that flowed through them and to estimate the maximum height of cumulonimbi that developed in them, to observe the changes in the convective activity in the central dense overcast (CDO) area, as well as in the area around the CDO. Most of the observed changes in Kathy have also been observed in other tropical cyclones during intensification and dissipation. Using the sequence of observed changes of the circulation and of convective activity in and around the CDO of Kathy, a mathematical model has been developed to forecast the intensity of a tropical cyclone. The model and its application to three tropical cyclones in the Australian region are described in Part II of this paper.

Wave ensemble forecast system for tropical cyclones in the Australian region

2018 ◽  
Vol 68 (4-5) ◽  
pp. 603-625 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Zieger ◽  
Diana Greenslade ◽  
Jeffrey D. Kepert
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Ensemble Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Australian Region

scholarly journals The Different Impact of Positive-Neutral and Negative-Neutral ENSO Regimes on Australian Tropical Cyclones

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (20) ◽  
pp. 8008-8016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Savin S. Chand ◽  
Kevin J. Tory ◽  
John L. McBride ◽  
Matthew C. Wheeler ◽  
Richard A. Dare ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Motion ◽  
Relative Vorticity ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Australian Region ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Difference

Abstract The number of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Australian region exhibits a large variation between different ENSO regimes. While the difference in TC numbers and spatial distribution of genesis locations between the canonical El Niño and La Niña regimes is well known, the authors demonstrate that a statistically significant difference in TC numbers also exists between the recently identified negative-neutral and positive-neutral regimes. Compared to the negative-neutral and La Niña regimes, significantly fewer TCs form in the Australian region during the positive-neutral regime, particularly in the eastern subregion. This difference is attributed to concomitant changes in various large-scale environmental conditions such as sea level pressure, relative vorticity, vertical motion, and sea surface temperature.

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