Aerosol particle characteristics measured in the United Arab Emirates and their response to mixing in the boundary layer

Aerosol particles play an important role in the microphysics of clouds and hence in their likelihood to precipitate. In the changing climate already-dry areas such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are predicted to become even drier. Comprehensive observations of the daily and seasonal variation in aerosol particle properties in such locations are required, reducing the uncertainty in such predictions. We analyse observations from a 1-year measurement campaign at a background location in the United Arab Emirates to investigate the properties of aerosol particles in this region, study the impact of boundary layer mixing on background aerosol particle properties measured at the surface, and study the temporal evolution of the aerosol particle cloud formation potential in the region. We used in situ aerosol particle measurements to characterise the aerosol particle composition, size, number, and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) properties; in situ SO2 measurements as an anthropogenic signature; and a long-range scanning Doppler lidar to provide vertical profiles of the horizontal wind and turbulent properties to monitor the evolution of the boundary layer. Anthropogenic sulfate dominated the aerosol particle mass composition in this location. There was a clear diurnal cycle in the surface wind direction, which had a strong impact on aerosol particle total number concentration, SO2 concentration, and black carbon mass concentration. Local sources were the predominant source of black carbon as concentrations clearly depended on the presence of turbulent mixing, with much higher values during calm nights. The measured concentrations of SO2, instead, were highly dependent on the surface wind direction as well as on the depth of the boundary layer when entrainment from the advected elevated layers occurred. The wind direction at the surface or of the elevated layer suggests that the oil refineries and the cities of Dubai and Abu Dhabi and other coastal conurbations were the remote sources of SO2. We observed new-aerosol-particle formation events almost every day (on 4 d out of 5 on average). Calm nights had the highest CCN number concentrations and lowest κ values and activation fractions. We did not observe any clear dependence of CCN number concentration and κ parameter on the height of the daytime boundary layer, whereas the activation fraction did show a slight increase with increasing boundary layer height due to the change in the shape of the aerosol particle size distribution where the relative portion of larger aerosol particles increased with increasing boundary layer height. We believe that this indicates that size is more important than chemistry for aerosol particle CCN activation at this site. The combination of instrumentation used in this campaign enabled us to identify periods when anthropogenic pollution from remote sources that had been transported in elevated layers was present and had been mixed down to the surface in the growing boundary layer.

Relationship between surface fields over Indian ocean and monsoon rainfall over homogeneous zones of India

The monthly mean atmospheric fields and surface parameters of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the period 1948-1998 have been studied to examine the characteristics of monsoon circulation features, sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure, surface wind stress and latent heat flux over the Indian Ocean and nearby seas during deficient, normal and excess rain years. The entire period of study has been classified into deficient, normal and excess rain years for all India as well as for each of the five homogeneous zones separately based on the observed seasonal mean rainfall. On the basis of the mean characteristics of the surface fields, the oceanic region covering the Indian Ocean and adjacent seas has been divided into four regional sectors. Using various statistical means the relation between the surface fields over the four regional sectors and the monsoon rainfall over five homogeneous zones of Indian landmass has been examined. Attempt have been made to identify some surface parameters which can be used as predictors for seasonal mean monsoon rainfall over the entire India and also over some homogeneous zones.

DMSP-SSM/I retrieval of proper surface winds during monsoon depression

Recently developed various global microwave algorithms for DMSP-SSM/I satellite data are used for the estimation of surface winds over the Indian ocean. Sea surface wind speeds from these algorithms are compared with sea surface wind speeds reported by coincidental Minicoy island (lowest height 2 m a.s.l.) station over the Arabian sea. A statistical comparison of these algorithms is made in terms of rms error, correlation coefficient, bias and standard deviation. Algorithm of Petty showed best results in the comparison. On the basis of this algorithm a notable characteristic feature such as acquiring of large area of strong surface winds (12-15 ms-1) to the south of dipping of monsoon trough in head Bay and then encircling of these winds during further development of low and depression (22-27 July 1992) is observed. This complete life cycle monitoring assessment of monsoon depression in respect of surface winds based on DMSP-SSM/I satellite data encourages to utilise our IRS-P4 (Oceansat-1) satellite data at different frequencies to emerge more details of various weather systems over the Indian region.

Assessing the Forecast Impact of a Geostationary Microwave Sounder using Regional and Global OSSEs

Forecast observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are conducted to assess the potential impact of geostationary microwave (GeoMW) sounder observations on numerical weather prediction forecasts. A regional OSSE is conducted using a tropical cyclone (TC) case that is very similar to hurricane Harvey (2017), as hurricanes are among the most devastating of weather-related natural disasters, and hurricane intensity continues to pose a significant challenge for numerical weather prediction. A global OSSE is conducted to assess the potential impact of a single GeoMW sounder centered over the continental United States versus two sounders positioned at the current locations of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) East and West. It is found that assimilation of GeoMW soundings result in better characterization of the TC environment, especially before and during intensification, which leads to significant improvements in forecasts of TC track and intensity. TC vertical structure (warm core thermal perturbation and horizontal wind distribution) is also substantially improved, as are the surface wind and precipitation extremes. In the global OSSE, assimilation of GeoMW soundings leads to slight improvement globally and significant improvement regionally, with regional impact equal to or greater than nearly all other observation types.

A simple coupled model of the wind-evaporation-SST feedback with a role for stability

The wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback describes a coupled mechanism by which an anomalous meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the tropics evolves over time. As commonly posed, the (positive) WES feedback depends critically on the atmospheric response to SST anomalies being governed by a process akin to that argued by Lindzen and Nigam (1987), and omits an alternative process by which SST anomalies modulate surface wind speed through vertical momentum mixing as proposed by Wallace et al. (1989) and Hayes et al. (1989). A simple model is developed that captures the essential coupled dynamics of the WES feedback as commonly posed, while also allowing for momentum entrainment in response to evolving SST anomalies. The evolution of the coupled system depends strongly on which effects are enabled in the model. When both effects are accounted for in idealized cases near the equator, the initial anomalous meridional SST gradient grows over a time scale of a few months, but is damped within one year. The sign and magnitude of the WES feedback depend on latitude within the tropics and exhibit hemispheric asymmetry. When constrained by realistic profiles of prevailing zonal wind, the model predicts that the WES feedback near the equator is stronger during boreal winter, while the domain over which it is positive is broader during boreal summer, and that low-frequency climate variability can also modulate the strength and structure of the WES feedback. These insights may aid in the interpretation of coupled climate behavior in observations and more complex models.

Recent atmospheric changes and future projections along the Saudi Arabian Red Sea Coast

Recent and future climate diagrams (surface air temperature, surface relative humidity, surface wind, and mean sea level pressure) for the Saudi Arabian Red Sea Coast are analysed based on hourly observations (2016–2020) and hourly ERA5 data (1979–2020) with daily GFDL mini-ensemble means (2006–2100). Moreover, GFDL mini-ensemble means are calculated based on the results of three GFDL simulations (GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2M, and GFDL-ESM2G). Observation data are employed to describe the short-term current weather variability. However, ERA5 data are considered to study the long-term current weather variability after bias removal via a comparison to observations. Finally, a bias correction statistical model was developed by matching the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of corrected ERA5 and mini-ensemble mean data over 15 years (2006–2020). The obtained local statistic were used to statically downscale GFDL mini-ensemble means to study the future uncertainty in the atmospheric parameters studied. There occurred significant spatial variability across the study area, especially regarding the surface air temperature and relative humidity, based on monthly analysis of both observation and ERA5 data. Moreover, the results indicated that the ERA5 data suitably describe Tabuk, Jeddah and Jizan weather conditions with a marked spatial variability. The best performance of ERA5 surface air temperature and relative humidity (surface wind speed and sea level pressure) data was detected in Tabuk (Jeddah). These data for the Saudi Arabian Red Sea coast, 1979–2020, exhibit significant positive trends of the surface air temperature and surface wind speed and significant negative trends of the relative humidity and sea level pressure. The GFDL mini-ensemble mean projection result, up to 2100, contains a significant bias in the studied weather parameters. This is partly attributed to the coarse GFDL resolution (2° × 2°). After bias removal, the statistically downscaled simulations based on the GFDL mini-ensemble mean indicate that the climate in the study area will experience significant changes with a large range of uncertainty according to the considered scenario and regional variations.

Seasonal and interannual coastal wind variability off the central Maluku Islands revealed by satellite oceanography

<p>The Maluku Islands (henceforth MI) are situated in the northeastern Indonesia. Ocean region off the central MI is pivotal as it provides a course for the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) through the Lifamatola passage. However, sea surface dynamics off the central MI is unknown until recently due to inadequate measurements. The current fact motivates the present study to decipher the coastal wind variability off the central MI and its effect on the sea surface by analysing long-term datasets (2007-2019) of satellite-derived sea surface wind, sea surface temperature (SST), and surface chlorophyll-a concentration. Possible influence of extreme climate events of the 2015 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the 2019 Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on all oceanographic parameters was also examined. Results show that the prevailing southeasterly winds over the central MI induce SST cooling and phytoplankton bloom. Correlation analysis revealed that the ENSO and IOD play significant roles in defining spatial distribution of the coastal wind, SST, and phytoplankton bloom in the research area. In addition, the anomaly analysis exhibits distinct oceanographic features during the climate extreme events of 2015 and 2019. Collectively, results of the present research highlight the importance of coastal wind variability and extreme events in shaping the ocean surface characteristics and perhaps regional fisheries production.</p>