The repetitive local sampling and the local distribution theory

Author(s):  
Pu Tian
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
PU TIAN

Molecular simulation is a mature and versatile tool set widely utilized in many subjects with more than 30,000 publications each year. However, its methodology development has been struggling with a tradeoff between accuracy/resolution and speed, significant improvement of both beyond present state of the art is necessary to reliably substitute many expensive and laborious experiments in molecular biology, materials science and nanotechnology. Previously, the ubiquitous issue regarding severe wasting of computational resources in all forms of molecular simulations due to repetitive local sampling was raised, and the local free energy landscape approach was proposed to address it. This approach is derived from a simple idea of first learning local distributions, and followed by dynamic assembly of which to infer global joint distribution of a target molecular system. When compared with conventional explicit solvent molecular dynamics simulations, a simple and approximate implementation of this theory in protein structural refinement harvested acceleration of about six orders of magnitude without loss of accuracy. While this initial test revealed tremendous benefits for addressing repetitive local sampling, there are some implicit assumptions need to be articulated. Here, I present a more thorough discussion of repetitive local sampling; potential options for learning local distributions; a more general formulation with potential extension to simulation of near equilibrium molecular systems; the prospect of developing computation driven molecular science; the connection to mainstream residue pair distance distribution based protein structure prediction/refinement; and the fundamental difference of utilizing averaging from conventional molecular simulation framework based on potential of mean force. This more general development is termed the local distribution theory to release the limitation of strict thermodynamic equilibrium in its potential wide application in general soft condensed molecular systems.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marion Germain ◽  
Daniel Kneeshaw ◽  
Louis De Grandpré ◽  
Mélanie Desrochers ◽  
Patrick M. A. James ◽  
...  

Abstract Context Although the spatiotemporal dynamics of spruce budworm outbreaks have been intensively studied, forecasting outbreaks remains challenging. During outbreaks, budworm-linked warblers (Tennessee, Cape May, and bay-breasted warbler) show a strong positive response to increases in spruce budworm, but little is known about the relative timing of these responses. Objectives We hypothesized that these warblers could be used as sentinels of future defoliation of budworm host trees. We examined the timing and magnitude of the relationships between defoliation by spruce budworm and changes in the probability of presence of warblers to determine whether they responded to budworm infestation before local defoliation being observed by standard detection methods. Methods We modelled this relationship using large-scale point count surveys of songbirds and maps of cumulative time-lagged defoliation over multiple spatial scales (2–30 km radius around sampling points) in Quebec, Canada. Results All three warbler species responded positively to defoliation at each spatial scale considered, but the timing of their response differed. Maximum probability of presence of Tennessee and Cape May warbler coincided with observations of local defoliation, or provided a one year warning, making them of little use to guide early interventions. In contrast, the probability of presence of bay-breasted warbler consistently increased 3–4 years before defoliation was detectable. Conclusions Early detection is a critical step in the management of spruce budworm outbreaks and rapid increases in the probability of presence of bay-breasted warbler could be used to identify future epicenters and target ground-based local sampling of spruce budworm.


2003 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-24
Author(s):  
N. Atreas ◽  
J. J. Benedetto ◽  
C. Karanikas
Keyword(s):  

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