Methods for estimating and modelling spruce budworm development rates at constant temperatures

We describe an experimental protocol for measuring the response of spruce budworm postdiapause larval development to temperature. This protocol is specifically designed to include measurements of development near their upper and lower thermal thresholds. The application of this protocol to a laboratory colony allowed for the first experimental evidence that spruce budworm larval development occurs at temperatures as low as 5 °C and as high as 35 °C, and it provides data to fit stage-specific development models. Our protocol is also designed to minimise mortality near the thermal development thresholds, thus allowing for multigenerational studies. We observed developmental plasticity in larvae reared at constant temperatures, particularly the occurrence of up to 42% of some individuals requiring only five instars to complete development compared to the expected six instars. The occurrence exhibited no clear relation to temperature. Although this protocol is specifically designed for spruce budworm, it provides a template for the study of other species’ developmental responses to temperature.

Quantifying and predicting population connectivity of an outbreaking forest insect pest

Context Dispersal has a key role in the population dynamics of outbreaking species such as the spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) as it can synchronize the demography of distant populations and favor the transition from endemic to epidemic states. However, we know very little about how landscape structure influences dispersal in such systems while such knowledge is essential for better forecasting of spatially synchronous population dynamics and to guide management strategies. Objectives We aimed to characterize the spatial environmental determinants of spruce budworm dispersal to determine how these features affect outbreak spread in Quebec (Canada). We then apply our findings to predict expected future landscape connectivity and explore its potential consequences on future outbreaks. Methods We used a machine-learning landscape genetics approach on 447 larvae covering most of the outbreak area and genotyped at 3562 SNP loci to identify the main variables affecting connectivity. Results We found that the connectivity between outbreak populations was driven by the combination of precipitation and host cover. Our forecasting suggests that between the current and next outbreaks, connectivity may increase between Ontario and Quebec, and might decrease in the eastern part, which could have the effect of limiting outbreak spread from Ontario and Quebec to the eastern provinces. Conclusions Although we did not identify any discrete barriers, low connectivity areas might constrain dispersal in the current and future outbreaks and should in turn, be intensively monitored. However, continued sampling as the outbreak progresses is needed to confirm the temporal stability of the observed patterns.

Variation of Stem Radius in Response to Defoliation in Boreal Conifers

In the long term, defoliation strongly decreases tree growth and survival. Insect outbreaks are a typical cause of severe defoliation. Eastern spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) outbreaks are one of the most significant disturbances of Picea and Abies boreal forests. Nevertheless, in boreal conifers, a 2-year defoliation has been shown to quickly improve tree water status, protect the foliage and decrease growth loss. It suggests that defoliation effects are time-dependent and could switch from favorable in the short term to unfavorable when defoliation duration exceeds 5–10 years. A better understanding of the effect of defoliation on stem radius variation during the needle flushing time-window could help to elucidate the relationships between water use and tree growth during an outbreak in the medium term. This study aims to assess the effects of eastern spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) defoliation and bud phenology on stem radius variation in black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.] and balsam fir [Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.] in a natural stand in Quebec, Canada. We monitored host and insect phenology, new shoot defoliation, seasonal stem radius variation and daytime radius phases (contraction and expansion) from 2016 to 2019. We found that defoliation significantly increased stem growth at the beginning of needle flushing. Needles flushing influenced the amplitude and duration of daily stem expansion and contraction, except the amplitude of stem contraction. Over the whole growing season, defoliation increased the duration of stem contraction, which in turn decreased the duration of stem expansion. However, the change (increase/decrease) of the duration of contraction/expansion reflects a reduced ability of the potential recovery from defoliation. Black spruce showed significantly larger 24-h cycles of stem amplitude compared to balsam fir. However, both species showed similar physiological adjustments during mild stress, preventing water loss from stem storage zones to support the remaining needles’ transpiration. Finally, conifers react to defoliation during a 4-year period, modulating stem radius variation phases according to the severity of the defoliation.

Dynamic Analysis of a Model for Spruce Budworm Populations with Delay

A class of delayed spruce budworm population model is considered. Compared with previous studies, both autonomous and nonautonomous delayed spruce budworm population models are considered. By using the inequality techniques, continuation theorem, and the construction of suitable Lyapunov functional, we establish a set of easily verifiable sufficient conditions on the permanence, existence, and global attractivity of positive periodic solutions for the considered system. Finally, an example and its numerical simulation are given to illustrate our main results.