The impacts of climate change on poverty depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on socio-economic trends. An analysis of hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic development shows that the drivers of poverty eradication differ across countries. In this chapter, two representative scenarios are selected from these hundreds, one optimistic and one pessimistic regarding poverty. Results from sector analyses of climate change impacts—in agriculture, health, and natural disasters—are introduced in the two scenarios. By 2030, climate change is found to have a significant impact on poverty. But the magnitude of these impacts depends on development choices. In the optimistic scenario with rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development, climate change increases poverty by between 3 million and 16 million in 2030. The increase in poverty reaches between 35 million and 122 million if development is delayed and less inclusive in the pessimistic scenario.
Water: The front line of climate change impacts
