Estimating the reduction in US mortality if cigarettes were largely replaced by e-cigarettes

Background Recent estimates indicated substantially replacing cigarettes by e-cigarettes would, during 2016–2100, reduce US deaths and life-years lost (millions) by 6.6 and 86.7 (Optimistic Scenario) and 1.6 and 20.8 (Pessimistic). To provide additional insight we use alternative modelling based on a shorter period (1991–2040), four main smoking-associated diseases, deaths aged 30–79 years, and a full product history. We consider variations in: assumed effective dose of e-cigarettes versus cigarettes (F); their relative quitting rate (Q); proportions smoking after 10 years (X); and initiation rate (I) of vaping, relative to smoking. Methods We set F = 0.05, X = 5%, Q = 1.0 and I = 1.0 (Main Scenario) and F = 0.4, X = 10%, Q = 0.5 and I = 1.5 (Pessimistic Scenario). Sensitivity Analyses varied Main Scenario parameters singly; F from 0 to 0.4, X 0.01% to 15%, and Q and I 0.5 to 1.5. To allow comparison with prior work, individuals cannot be dual users, re-initiate, or switch except from cigarettes to e-cigarettes. Results Main Scenario reductions were 2.52 and 26.23 million deaths and life-years lost; Pessimistic Scenario reductions were 0.76 and 8.31 million. These were less than previously, due to the more limited age-range and follow-up, and restriction to four diseases. Reductions in deaths (millions) varied most for X, from 3.22 (X = 0.01%) to 1.31 (X = 15%), and F, 2.74 (F = 0) to 1.35 (F = 0.4). Varying Q or I had little effect. Conclusions Substantial reductions in deaths and life-years lost were observed even under pessimistic assumptions. Estimates varied most for X and F. These findings supplement literature indicating e-cigarettes can importantly impact health challenges from smoking.

TECHNOECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF REFINING NIGERIAN LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS CONDENSATE

Condensate refining is among the strategies proposed to solve the light oil glut around the globe. The Nigerian Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG), which is the Nigerian government’s best performing investment in the natural gas value chain, produces plant condensate as a by-product. In this paper, the economics of a refinery designed to use NLNG plant condensate is evaluated under an optimistic oil price forecast and a pessimistic oil price trend. A gasoline producing refinery configuration was chosen for this study, and it comprises of a naphtha splitter, a Penex isomerisation unit and a Continuous Catalytic Reforming (CCR) unit. The product yields and plant costs were determined by established correlations and industry estimates. The proposed refinery will convert 40,000 bpd plant condensate into 96% gasoline, 3% LPG and 1% hydrogen, and economic indicators such as Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Profitability Index (PI) were used to assess the economic viability of the refinery. The optimistic scenario of oil price forecast resulted in an NPV of $ 531.90 million, an IRR of 20.09% and a PI of 3.16, while the pessimistic scenario gave an NPV of $16.26 million, an IRR of 11.16% and a PI of 1.07. These results prove that a condensate refinery with the proposed configuration is economically feasible and interested investors in Nigeria’s refining space should explore this possibility.

Post-Dodon Moldova: Prospects for the Development of RussianMoldovan Relations

The article is dedicated to the prospects for the development of Russian-Moldovan relations after the victory of Maia Sandu in the presidential elections in the Republic of Moldova. The work examines the historical background and the current state of political and economic cooperation between Russia and Moldova. It is outlined that Russia retains its importance for Moldova in the felds of energy security and food exports; at the same time, a signifcant economic imbalance in relations is emphasized. The authors point to the instability of bilateral interaction due to three circumstances: external factors (primarily, the influence of the European Union), the stance of the newly elected president of the republic, and the balance of political forces in the national parliament of Moldova. According to the authors, the assumption of power by a pro-European politician does not imply Moldova’s unilateral refusal to cooperate with Russia. Despite the obvious intention to accelerate the country’s integration into the European Union, the new leadership is not yet ready to abandon the dialogue with Moscow. In the political, economic, and military profles of Moldova, Russia remains one of the most important partners. Since the internal political transformations in the republic carry the potential to diminish Russian influence over Moldova, the authors highlight possible steps on the Russian side that are capable of strengthening the existing foundation of positive interaction between countries, based on a study of the current confguration of bilateral relations. It is particularly underlined that against the background of the existing parameters of the modern system of international relations, even in the event of the most pessimistic scenario, the damage to Russian interests (apart from reputational losses) can be assessed as relatively insignifcant.

New records and modelling the impacts of climate change on the black-tailed marmosets

Climate change represents an unprecedented threat to global biodiversity and, for many species, gaps in our knowledge of their biology remain acute. Gaps in baseline knowledge, such as confirmed identifications (Linnean shortfalls) and adequate collections (Wallacean shortfalls), need to be minimized with new studies, since this is often critical for effective conservation. Despite the increase in scientific research on primates in the southwest of the Brazilian Amazon, little is known about the species Mico nigriceps (Ferrari & Lopes, 1992) Primates, Platirryni. In the current study, we sought to reduce the extent of the Wallacean shortfall for M. nigriceps, understand whether climate change represents a threat to the distribution of the species, and identify priority areas for its conservation. Accordingly, we provide 121 new records in 14 locations, obtained directly from the field, and five from the literature. Using this, we carried out ecological niche modeling, to better understand how environmental suitability might limit the area occupied by the species. We then projected a distribution for 2070 with the SSP2-4.5 (more optimistic) and SSP5-8.5 (more pessimistic) scenarios. Our data confirmed the geographic distribution of the species as being restricted to headwaters of the Ji-Paraná/Machado river, but with a 400 km extension to the south. Under the modeled climate change scenarios, the area suitable for the species declines by 21% under the most optimistic, and by 27% in the pessimistic, scenario across the projected 50-year period. Although we have expanded the area of known occurrence for this species, we point out that climate change threatens the stability of this newly-discovered population strongly, and that this danger is intensified by deforestation, fire and hunting. We recommend that further studies be carried out to confirm the presence of the species in adjacent areas, those indicated by generated models as being potential environmentally suitable. In addition, we recommend intensifying forest restoration in currently pastured areas, and protection of the areas forming the current and future habitat of this species through such measures as protected area creation.

Stock Valuation in Pharmaceutical Sub-Sector Companies using the Discounted Cash Flow and Relative Valuation Methods in the 2013-2020 Period

This research aims at calculating the fair value of shares of pharmaceutical companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The data used in this research is historical data from the 2013-2020 financial statements, which are used as the basis for projections in 2021-2025. The method used in this research is Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method with Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) approach and Relative Valuation method with Price to Earning Ratio (PER) and Price to Book Value (PBV) approaches in three scenarios. The three scenarios used are the optimistic scenario (condition above industry growth), the moderate scenario (the most likely condition for the company), and the pessimistic scenario (the average condition of the industry). The results of the research showed that by using the DCF-FCFF method, KAEF and PYFA stocks experienced overvalued conditions in all scenarios. Meanwhile, KLBF and DVLA stocks were undervalued in all scenarios. Then, from the calculation of the Relative Valuation method, each company was still within the industry range in all scenarios. Overall, KAEF stocks were overvalued by 57.817%, KLBF stocks were undervalued by 7.879%, DVLA stocks were undervalued by 370.865%, and PYFA stocks were overvalued by 16.662% both in DCF method and in Relative Valuation method.

Market Dynamics of Ensuring Financial Security and Sustainable Development of Enterprise

The paper substantiates the need to study the level of financial security of an enterprise. To study the dynamics of financial security of an enterprise we consider a system-dynamic model and simulation of distributed financial flows of a representative industrial enterprise under the impact of random factors, which reflect the threats affecting its financial security. Information on the financial statements of firms is often confidential, which leads to the need to develop a simulation model of a firm’s activities and to conduct experimental research based on the enterprise’s size and reserve fund ensuring its financial security. During simulation experiments, three scenarios for metallurgical enterprise (pessimistic scenario, optimistic scenario and most probable scenario) were investigated, and it was established that for at least half of the cases, an enterprise needs to form a reserve fund to maintain autonomous operations and ensure the necessary level of financial security. JEL Codes: C1, C9, D33

Economic evaluation of the use of distillers dried grains with solubles in swine feeding

This study proposes to undertake an economic assessment of the inclusion of different levels of distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) in diets for pigs in different production stages and categories (growing and finishing), namely: barrows fed diets containing 0 or 20% DDGS; and finishing barrows and sows fed diets containing 0, 10, 20, and 30% DDGS. A sensitivity analysis was performed on the price of corn in three simulated scenarios with different revenue systems: an optimistic scenario (lowest price); a regular scenario (medium price); and a pessimistic scenario (highest price). Inclusion of DDGS in the swine diet can reduce feeding costs and improve the profitability of production, about finishing males and females, the profit per kilogram of weight gain (US$/kg) were better in 10% of DDGS inclusion, 0.23, 0.28 respectively, but for growing and finishing, it was smaller in 20% (0.32 US$/kg) of DDGS inclusion than the 0% control treatment (0.33 US$/KG). The inclusion of DDGS must be carefully planned, since its use may depress animal performance and its inclusion is linked to the costs of the other ingredients that make up the diet.

Construction of a demand and capacity model for intensive care and hospital ward beds, and mortality from COVID-19

Background This paper describes a model for estimating COVID-19 related excess deaths that are a direct consequence of insufficient hospital ward bed and intensive care unit (ICU) capacity. Methods Compartmental models were used to estimate deaths under different combinations of ICU and ward care required and received in England up to late April 2021. Model parameters were sourced from publicly available government information and organisations collating COVID-19 data. A sub-model was used to estimate the mortality scalars that represent increased mortality due to insufficient ICU or general ward bed capacity. Three illustrative scenarios for admissions numbers, ‘Optimistic’, ‘Middling’ and ‘Pessimistic’, were modelled and compared with the subsequent observations to the 3rd February. Results The key output was the demand and capacity model described. There were no excess deaths from a lack of capacity in the ‘Optimistic’ scenario. Several of the ‘Middling’ scenario applications resulted in excess deaths—up to 597 deaths (0.6% increase) with a 20% reduction compared to best estimate ICU capacity. All the ‘Pessimistic’ scenario applications resulted in excess deaths, ranging from 49,178 (17.0% increase) for a 20% increase in ward bed availability, to 103,735 (35.8% increase) for a 20% shortfall in ward bed availability. These scenarios took no account of the emergence of the new, more transmissible, variant of concern (b.1.1.7). Conclusions Mortality is increased when hospital demand exceeds available capacity. No excess deaths from breaching capacity would be expected under the ‘Optimistic’ scenario. The ‘Middling’ scenario could result in some excess deaths—up to a 0.7% increase relative to the total number of deaths. The ‘Pessimistic’ scenario would have resulted in significant excess deaths. Our sensitivity analysis indicated a range between 49,178 (17% increase) and 103,735 (35.8% increase). Given the new variant, the pessimistic scenario appeared increasingly likely and could have resulted in a substantial increase in the number of COVID-19 deaths. In the event, it would appear that capacity was not breached at any stage at a national level with no excess deaths. it will remain unclear if minor local capacity breaches resulted in any small number of excess deaths.

On the Implementation of Policies and Measures in the Field of Economic Integration and Entrepreneurship within the Framework of the Eurasian Economic Union

The article examines the situation in the sphere of economic integration and entrepreneurship within the Eurasian Economic Union, related to the pandemic of coronavirus infection, proposed possible measures aimed at transforming the economy as a whole well as a gradual way out of the crisis. As a result of the implementation by most countries of the world of measures to limit the spread of COVID-19 virus infection, there was a drop in financial markets and commodities prices. It also caused a significant deterioration in the external situation for the EAEU. Forecasts of the situation indicate the beginning of the global recession, comparable in magnitude to the financial and economic crisis of 2008–2009 (in an optimistic version) or the Great Depression of the 1930s (in a pessimistic scenario). In 2020, world trade was expected to contract by tens of per cent, a sharp drop in economic activity in the EU, a slowdown in China, which accounts for the bulk of foreign trade of the EAEU countries.

Spatial aspect of modern warfare: from traditional warfare to cyberwar

This author substantiates the thesis on the importance of spatial factors for conducting warfare. The article traces the evolution of warfare associated with the involvement of new territories and new types of spaces in the orbit of military activity. If the warfare of the past demonstrated a direct dependence on the geographical territory and the related “tensions” (C. von Clausewitz), the modern warfare are emancipated from the geographical shell of the Earth. The article explicates the factors that justify the need for arranging the new warfare spaces. Special attention is given to cyberspace, its structure, and conflicts unfolding therein. The scientific novelty of consists in the interpretation of cyberspace as an expected result of the spatial evolution of warfare. The conclusion is drawn that the emergence of cyberspace contributes to solution of the problem of information vagueness and creation of the stability zones for the military leaders, but at the same is a source of problems not less dangerous for the humanity. The cyberwar winner faces a tempting challenge of establishing global control over the territory of the plane using cyberweapon, or in most pessimistic scenario, its total destruction.