A Bayesian Model for a Game of Information in Optimal Attack/Defense Strategies

Author(s):  
M. Naceur Azaiez
1981 ◽  
Vol 20 (03) ◽  
pp. 174-178 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. I. Barnett ◽  
J. Cynthia ◽  
F. Jane ◽  
Nancy Gutensohn ◽  
B. Davies

A Bayesian model that provides probabilistic information about the spread of malignancy in a Hodgkin’s disease patient has been developed at the Tufts New England Medical Center. In assessing the model’s reliability, it seemed important to use it to make predictions about patients other than those relevant to its construction. The accuracy of these predictions could then be tested statistically. This paper describes such a test, based on 243 Hodgkin’s disease patients of known pathologic stage. The results obtained were supportive of the model, and the test procedure might interest those wishing to determine whether the imperfections that attend any attempt to make probabilistic forecasts have gravely damaged their accuracy.


1996 ◽  
Vol 35 (04/05) ◽  
pp. 309-316 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. R. Lehto ◽  
G. S. Sorock

Abstract:Bayesian inferencing as a machine learning technique was evaluated for identifying pre-crash activity and crash type from accident narratives describing 3,686 motor vehicle crashes. It was hypothesized that a Bayesian model could learn from a computer search for 63 keywords related to accident categories. Learning was described in terms of the ability to accurately classify previously unclassifiable narratives not containing the original keywords. When narratives contained keywords, the results obtained using both the Bayesian model and keyword search corresponded closely to expert ratings (P(detection)≥0.9, and P(false positive)≤0.05). For narratives not containing keywords, when the threshold used by the Bayesian model was varied between p>0.5 and p>0.9, the overall probability of detecting a category assigned by the expert varied between 67% and 12%. False positives correspondingly varied between 32% and 3%. These latter results demonstrated that the Bayesian system learned from the results of the keyword searches.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tam ngoc Nguyen

We proposes a new scientific model that enables the ability to collect evidence, and explain the motivations behind people's cyber malicious/ethical behaviors. Existing models mainly focus on detecting already-committed actions and associated response strategies, which is not proactive. That is the reason why little has been done in order to prevent malicious behaviors early, despite the fact that issues like insider threats cost corporations billions of dollars annually, and its time to detection often lasts for more than a year.We address those problems by our main contributions of:+ A better model for ethical/malicious behavioral analysis with a strong focus on understanding people's motivations. + Research results regarding ethical behaviors of more than 200 participants, during the historic Covid-19 pandemic. + Novel attack and defense strategies based on validated model and survey results. + Strategies for continuous model development and integration, utilizing latest technologies such as natural language processing, and machine learning. We employed mixed-mode research approach of: integrating and combining proven behavioral science models, case studying of hackers, survey research, quantitative analysis, and qualitative analysis. For practical deployments, corporations may utilize our model in: improving HR processes and research, prioritizing plans based on the model's informed human behavioral metrics, better analysis in existing or potential cyber insider threat cases, generating more defense tactics in information warfare and so on.


Author(s):  
Lorenzo Bencivelli ◽  
Massimiliano Giuseppe Marcellino ◽  
Gianluca Moretti

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