Based on the official Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) data, the current research paper modeled the confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Nigeria. Ten different curve regression models including linear, logarithmic, inverse, quadratic, cubic, compound, power, S-curve, growth, and exponential were used to fit the obtained official data. The cubic (R2 = 0.999) model gave the best fit for the entire country. However, the growth and exponential had the lowest standard error of estimate (0.958) and thus may best be used. The equations for these models were e0.78897+0.0944x and 2.2011e0.0944x respectively. In terms of confirmed cases in individual State, quadratic, cubic, compound, growth, power and exponential models generally best describe the official data for many states except for the state of Kogi which is best fitted with S-curve and inverse models. The error between the model and the official data curve is quite small especially for compound, power, growth and exponential models. The computed models will help to realized forward prediction and backward inference of the epidemic situation in Nigeria, and the relevant analysis help Federal and State governments to make vital decisions on how to manage the lockdown in the country.
Empirical and Kernel Estimation of the ROC Curve