Bayesian Probability

Author(s):  
Sergey K. Aityan
Keyword(s):  
Author(s):  
Timothy McGrew

One of the central complaints about Bayesian probability is that it places no constraints on individual subjectivity in one’s initial probability assignments. Those sympathetic to Bayesian methods have responded by adding restrictions motivated by broader epistemic concerns about the possibility of changing one’s mind. This chapter explores some cases where, intuitively, a straightforward Bayesian model yields unreasonable results. Problems arise in these cases not because there is something wrong with the Bayesian formalism per se but because standard textbook illustrations teach us to represent our inferences in simplified ways that break down in extreme cases. It also explores some interesting limitations on the extent to which successive items of evidence ought to induce us to change our minds when certain screening conditions obtain.


2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Kevin Vanslette ◽  
Abdullatif Al Alsheikh ◽  
Kamal Youcef-Toumi

AbstractWe motive and calculate Newton–Cotes quadrature integration variance and compare it directly with Monte Carlo (MC) integration variance. We find an equivalence between deterministic quadrature sampling and random MC sampling by noting that MC random sampling is statistically indistinguishable from a method that uses deterministic sampling on a randomly shuffled (permuted) function. We use this statistical equivalence to regularize the form of permissible Bayesian quadrature integration priors such that they are guaranteed to be objectively comparable with MC. This leads to the proof that simple quadrature methods have expected variances that are less than or equal to their corresponding theoretical MC integration variances. Separately, using Bayesian probability theory, we find that the theoretical standard deviations of the unbiased errors of simple Newton–Cotes composite quadrature integrations improve over their worst case errors by an extra dimension independent factor {\propto N^{-\frac{1}{2}}}. This dimension independent factor is validated in our simulations.


Proceedings ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
Fabrizia Guglielmetti ◽  
Eric Villard ◽  
Ed Fomalont

A stable and unique solution to the ill-posed inverse problem in radio synthesis image analysis is sought employing Bayesian probability theory combined with a probabilistic two-component mixture model. The solution of the ill-posed inverse problem is given by inferring the values of model parameters defined to describe completely the physical system arised by the data. The analysed data are calibrated visibilities, Fourier transformed from the ( u , v ) to image planes. Adaptive splines are explored to model the cumbersome background model corrupted by the largely varying dirty beam in the image plane. The de-convolution process of the dirty image from the dirty beam is tackled in probability space. Probability maps in source detection at several resolution values quantify the acquired knowledge on the celestial source distribution from a given state of information. The information available are data constrains, prior knowledge and uncertain information. The novel algorithm has the aim to provide an alternative imaging task for the use of the Atacama Large Millimeter/Submillimeter Array (ALMA) in support of the widely used Common Astronomy Software Applications (CASA) enhancing the capabilities in source detection.


The Lancet ◽  
1985 ◽  
Vol 325 (8435) ◽  
pp. 993-994 ◽  
Author(s):  
K.I. Pritchard ◽  
C.A. Sawka ◽  
G.J. Kutas ◽  
J.A. Morris ◽  
KevinJ. Mcconway ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  

1996 ◽  
Vol 03 (03) ◽  
pp. 1393-1402 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. FISCHER ◽  
TH. FAUSTER ◽  
W. VON DER LINDEN ◽  
V. DOSE

Island-size distributions of submonolayer Ag films on Pd(111) adsorbed at 90 K and after annealing of the film are recovered from two-photon photoemission spectra of the first image state. The inversion of the ill-conditioned problem with the maximum-entropy method reveals magic numbers in the island-size distributions. Hypothesis testing within the framework of Bayesian probability theory indicates a critical nucleus size i=1. After annealing of the film large islands coexist with small clusters in a two-phase state.


1997 ◽  
Vol 37 (5) ◽  
pp. 547 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Vickery ◽  
M. J. Hill ◽  
G. E. Donald

Summary. Spectral data from the green, red and near-infrared bands of Landsat MSS and Landsat TM satellite imagery acquired in mid-spring were classified into 3 and 6 pasture growth classes respectively. The classifications were compared with a site database of botanical composition for the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales to examine the association between spectral growth class and pasture composition. Pastures ranged in composition from unimproved native perennial grasses through semi-improved mixtures of native and naturalised grasses and legumes to highly improved temperate perennial grasses and legumes. For 3 years of MSS data, the fast growth class had a mean botanical composition of about 80% improved perennial grass and 0% native; medium growth class averaged 46% improved perennial grass and 14% native; while the slow growth class had about 60% native and 1% improved perennial grass when averaged over 3 years of MSS data. For the 6 class TM data from a single year, a predictive logistic regression of cumulative probability was developed for percentage of ‘very fast’ growth pixels and ordered 10 percentile categories of improved perennial grass or native grass. Differences in patch characteristics between classes with MSS disappeared with TM reclassified to the same 3 class level. Most probable pasture type was inferred from 3 class MSS and TM data using Bayesian probability analysis. The resulting maps were similar in general appearance but detail was better with the TM data. The pasture growth classification identified highly improved perennial grass pastures and native pastures but sensitivity to intermediate pasture types was poor. Future improvement will come from direct measurement of biophysical characteristics using vegetation indices or inversion of reflectance models.


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