Reinforcement Learning Based on the Bayesian Theorem for Electricity Markets Decision Support

Author(s):  
Tiago M. Sousa ◽  
Tiago Pinto ◽  
Isabel Praça ◽  
Zita Vale ◽  
Hugo Morais
Author(s):  
Philip Odonkor ◽  
Kemper Lewis

Abstract In the wake of increasing proliferation of renewable energy and distributed energy resources (DERs), grid designers and operators alike are faced with several emerging challenges in curbing allocative grid inefficiencies and maintaining operational stability. One such challenge relates to the increased price volatility within real-time electricity markets, a result of the inherent intermittency of renewable energy. With this challenge, however, comes heightened economic interest in exploiting the arbitrage potential of price volatility towards demand-side energy cost savings. To this end, this paper aims to maximize the arbitrage value of electricity through the optimal design of control strategies for DERs. Formulated as an arbitrage maximization problem using design optimization, and solved using reinforcement learning, the proposed approach is applied towards shared DERs within multi-building residential clusters. We demonstrate its feasibility across three unique building cluster demand profiles, observing notable energy cost reductions over baseline values. This highlights a capability for generalized learning across multiple building clusters and the ability to design efficient arbitrage policies towards energy cost minimization. Finally, the approach is shown to be computationally tractable, designing efficient strategies in approximately 5 hours of training over a simulation time horizon of 1 month.


2011 ◽  
Vol 403-408 ◽  
pp. 4098-4102
Author(s):  
Jing Rong Dong ◽  
Yu Ke Chen

Research and development (R&D) project termination decision is an important and challenging task for organizations with R&D project management .Current research on R&D project management mainly focuses on project selection decisions. Very little research has been done on the termination decision of R&D projects .In this paper a support vector machines classifer for assisting managers in deciding whether to abandon an ongoing R&D project at various stages of R&D is presented. It has also shown by the modeling and pattern recognizing results in terms of termination decisions of fifty R&D projects that the method possesses reinforcement learning properties and universalized capabilities. With respect to modeling and termination decision of R&D project, which has the fact that the evaluation criteria are hardly ever determined by conventional approaches such as statistical analysis, the method is available.


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