scholarly journals Bridge Deterioration Modeling by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Simulation Method

2014 ◽  
pp. 545-556 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. K. Walgama Wellalage ◽  
Tieling Zhang ◽  
Richard Dwight ◽  
Khaled El-Akruti
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Markov Chain Monte Carlo ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Mcmc Simulation

scholarly journals IMPLEMENTASI METODE MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO DALAM PENENTUAN HARGA KONTRAK BERJANGKA KOMODITAS

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 122
Author(s):  
PUTU AMANDA SETIAWANI ◽  
KOMANG DHARMAWAN ◽  
I WAYAN SUMARJAYA
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Markov Chain Monte Carlo ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Future Contract ◽  
Mcmc Method ◽  
Futures Contract ◽  
Mcmc Simulation ◽  
Hit And Run

The aim of the research is to implement Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method to price the futures contract of cocoa commodities. The result shows that MCMC is more flexible than Standard Monte Carlo (SMC) simulation method because MCMC method uses hit-and-run sampler algorithm to generate proposal movements that are subsequently accepted or rejected with a probability that depends on the distribution of the target that we want to be achieved. This research shows that MCMC method is suitable to be used to simulate the model of cocoa commodity price movement. The result of this research is a simulation of future contract prices for the next three months and future contract prices that must be paid at the time the contract expires. Pricing future contract by using MCMC method will produce the cheaper contract price if it compares to Standard Monte Carlo simulation.

scholarly journals A Study of Perks-II Distribution via Bayesian Paradigm

Pravaha ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
A. K. Chaudhary
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Markov Chain Monte Carlo ◽  
Bayesian Analysis ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Mcmc Methods ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Bayesian Paradigm ◽  
Mcmc Simulation

In this paper, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is used to estimate the parameters of Perks-II distribution based on a complete sample. The procedures are developed to perform full Bayesian analysis of the Perks-II distributions using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method in OpenBUGS, established software for Bayesian analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We have obtained the Bayes estimates of the parameters, hazard and reliability functions, and their probability intervals are also presented. We have also discussed the issue of model compatibility for the given data set. A real data set is considered for illustration under gamma sets of priors.PravahaVol. 24, No. 1, 2018,page: 1-17 

scholarly journals A Bayesian Analysis of Perks Distribution via Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 153-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arun Kumar Chaudhary ◽  
Vijay Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Markov Chain Monte Carlo ◽  
Bayesian Analysis ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Complete Sample ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Mcmc Simulation ◽  
The Given

In this paper the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is used to estimate the parameters of Perks distribution based on a complete sample. The procedures are developed to perform full Bayesian analysis of the Perks distributions using MCMC simulation method in OpenBUGS. We obtained the Bayes estimates of the parameters, hazard and reliability functions, and their probability intervals are also presented. We also discussed the issue of model compatibility for the given data set. A real data set is considered for illustration under gamma sets of priors. Nepal Journal of Science and Technology Vol. 14, No. 1 (2013) 153-166 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/njst.v14i1.8936

scholarly journals Measuring Stellar Radial Velocity using Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) Method

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (S298) ◽  
pp. 441-441
Author(s):  
Yihan Song ◽  
Ali Luo ◽  
Yongheng Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Markov Chain Monte Carlo ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Radial Velocity ◽  
Mcmc Methods ◽  
Mcmc Method ◽  
Stellar Spectra ◽  
Mcmc Simulation ◽  
Template Fitting

AbstractStellar radial velocity is estimated by using template fitting and Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) methods. This method works on the LAMOST stellar spectra. The MCMC simulation generates a probability distribution of the RV. The RV error can also computed from distribution.

scholarly journals A Bayesian spatial random effects model characterisation of tumour heterogeneity implemented using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation

F1000Research ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 2082 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin D. King ◽  
Matthew Grech-Sollars
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Markov Chain Monte Carlo ◽  
Statistical Model ◽  
Spatial Heterogeneity ◽  
Random Effects ◽  
Random Effects Model ◽  
Tumour Heterogeneity ◽  
Spatial Random Effects ◽  
Mcmc Simulation

The focus of this study is the development of a statistical modelling procedure for characterising intra-tumour heterogeneity, motivated by recent clinical literature indicating that a variety of tumours exhibit a considerable degree of genetic spatial variability. A formal spatial statistical model has been developed and used to characterise the structural heterogeneity of a number of supratentorial primitive neuroectodermal tumours (PNETs), based on diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging. Particular attention is paid to the spatial dependence of diffusion close to the tumour boundary, in order to determine whether the data provide statistical evidence to support the proposition that water diffusivity in the boundary region of some tumours exhibits a deterministic dependence on distance from the boundary, in excess of an underlying random 2D spatial heterogeneity in diffusion. Tumour spatial heterogeneity measures were derived from the diffusion parameter estimates obtained using a Bayesian spatial random effects model. The analyses were implemented using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. Posterior predictive simulation was used to assess the adequacy of the statistical model. The main observations are that the previously reported relationship between diffusion and boundary proximity remains observable and achieves statistical significance after adjusting for an underlying random 2D spatial heterogeneity in the diffusion model parameters. A comparison of the magnitude of the boundary-distance effect with the underlying random 2D boundary heterogeneity suggests that both are important sources of variation in the vicinity of the boundary. No consistent pattern emerges from a comparison of the boundary and core spatial heterogeneity, with no indication of a consistently greater level of heterogeneity in one region compared with the other. The results raise the possibility that DWI might provide a surrogate marker of intra-tumour genetic regional heterogeneity, which would provide a powerful tool with applications in both patient management and in cancer research.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Galin L. Jones ◽  
Qian Qin
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Markov Chain Monte Carlo ◽  
Online Publication ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Annual Review ◽  
Publication Date ◽  
Mcmc Simulation ◽  
Essential Set

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is an essential set of tools for estimating features of probability distributions commonly encountered in modern applications. For MCMC simulation to produce reliable outcomes, it needs to generate observations representative of the target distribution, and it must be long enough so that the errors of Monte Carlo estimates are small. We review methods for assessing the reliability of the simulation effort, with an emphasis on those most useful in practically relevant settings. Both strengths and weaknesses of these methods are discussed. The methods are illustrated in several examples and in a detailed case study. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Statistics, Volume 9 is March 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

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