COVID-GAN+: Estimating Human Mobility Responses to COVID-19 through Spatio-temporal Generative Adversarial Networks with Enhanced Features

Estimating human mobility responses to the large-scale spreading of the COVID-19 pandemic is crucial, since its significance guides policymakers to give Non-pharmaceutical Interventions, such as closure or reopening of businesses. It is challenging to model due to complex social contexts and limited training data. Recently, we proposed a conditional generative adversarial network (COVID-GAN) to estimate human mobility response under a set of social and policy conditions integrated from multiple data sources. Although COVID-GAN achieves a good average estimation accuracy under real-world conditions, it produces higher errors in certain regions due to the presence of spatial heterogeneity and outliers. To address these issues, in this article, we extend our prior work by introducing a new spatio-temporal deep generative model, namely, COVID-GAN+. COVID-GAN+ deals with the spatial heterogeneity issue by introducing a new spatial feature layer that utilizes the local Moran statistic to model the spatial heterogeneity strength in the data. In addition, we redesign the training objective to learn the estimated mobility changes from historical average levels to mitigate the effects of spatial outliers. We perform comprehensive evaluations using urban mobility data derived from cell phone records and census data. Results show that COVID-GAN+ can better approximate real-world human mobility responses than prior methods, including COVID-GAN.

Using an Eigenvector Spatial Filtering-Based Spatially Varying Coefficient Model to Analyze the Spatial Heterogeneity of COVID-19 and Its Influencing Factors in Mainland China

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to many deaths and economic disruptions across the world. Several studies have examined the effect of corresponding health risk factors in different places, but the problem of spatial heterogeneity has not been adequately addressed. The purpose of this paper was to explore how selected health risk factors are related to the pandemic infection rate within different study extents and to reveal the spatial varying characteristics of certain health risk factors. An eigenvector spatial filtering-based spatially varying coefficient model (ESF-SVC) was developed to find out how the influence of selected health risk factors varies across space and time. The ESF-SVC was able to take good control of over-fitting problems compared with ordinary least square (OLS), eigenvector spatial filtering (ESF) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models, with a higher adjusted R2 and lower cross validation RMSE. The impact of health risk factors varied as the study extent changed: In Hubei province, only population density and wind speed showed significant spatially constant impact; while in mainland China, other factors including migration score, building density, temperature and altitude showed significant spatially varying impact. The influence of migration score was less contributive and less significant in cities around Wuhan than cities further away, while altitude showed a stronger contribution to the decrease of infection rates in high altitude cities. The temperature showed mixed correlation as time passed, with positive and negative coefficients at 2.42 °C and 8.17 °C, respectively. This study could provide a feasible path to improve the model fit by considering the problem of spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity that exists in COVID-19 modeling. The yielding ESF-SVC coefficients could also provide an intuitive method for discovering the different impacts of influencing factors across space in large study areas. It is hoped that these findings improve public and governmental awareness of potential health risks and therefore influence epidemic control strategies.

Reducing bias in risk indices for COVID-19

Spatiotemporal modelling of infectious diseases such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) involves using a variety of epidemiological metrics such as regional proportion of cases and/or regional positivity rates. Although observing changes of these indices over time is critical to estimate the regional disease burden, the dynamical properties of these measures, as well as crossrelationships, are usually not systematically given or explained. Here we provide a spatiotemporal framework composed of six commonly used and newly constructed epidemiological metrics and conduct a case study evaluation. We introduce a refined risk estimate that is biased neither by variation in population size nor by the spatial heterogeneity of testing. In particular, the proposed methodology would be useful for unbiased identification of time periods with elevated COVID-19 risk without sensitivity to spatial heterogeneity of neither population nor testing coverage.We offer a case study in Poland that shows improvement over the bias of currently used methods. Our results also provide insights regarding regional prioritisation of testing and the consequences of potential synchronisation of epidemics between regions. The approach should apply to other infectious diseases and other geographical areas.

Research on Spillover Effect of Urbanization on Rural Land Transfer Based on the SDM Model of Intelligent Computing

In order to explore the spillover effect of urbanization on rural land transfer, this paper uses the panel data of various regions and cities in Xinjiang from 2008 to 2018. Moran's I method is used to test and analyze the spatial correlation between urbanization and farmland transfer. Intelligent computing SDM is used to analyze the spillover effect of urbanization on farmland transfer. The results show that there is spatial correlation between farmland transfers in Xinjiang. There is spatial heterogeneity in the spatial agglomeration of urbanization and farmland transfer in northern and southern Xinjiang. The content of this paper can provide some reference and ideas for follow-up research.

Using Remote Sensing to Estimate Scales of Spatial Heterogeneity to Analyze Evapotranspiration Modeling in a Natural Ecosystem

Understanding the spatial variability in highly heterogeneous natural environments such as savannas and river corridors is an important issue in characterizing and modeling energy fluxes, particularly for evapotranspiration (ET) estimates. Currently, remote-sensing-based surface energy balance (SEB) models are applied widely and routinely in agricultural settings to obtain ET information on an operational basis for use in water resources management. However, the application of these models in natural environments is challenging due to spatial heterogeneity in vegetation cover and complexity in the number of vegetation species existing within a biome. In this research effort, small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) data were used to study the influence of land surface spatial heterogeneity on the modeling of ET using the Two-Source Energy Balance (TSEB) model. The study area is the San Rafael River corridor in Utah, which is a part of the Upper Colorado River Basin that is characterized by arid conditions and variations in soil moisture status and the type and height of vegetation. First, a spatial variability analysis was performed using a discrete wavelet transform (DWT) to identify a representative spatial resolution/model grid size for adequately solving energy balance components to derive ET. The results indicated a maximum wavelet energy between 6.4 m and 12.8 m for the river corridor area, while the non-river corridor area, which is characterized by different surface types and random vegetation, does not show a peak value. Next, to evaluate the effect of spatial resolution on latent heat flux (LE) estimation using the TSEB model, spatial scales of 6 m and 15 m instead of 6.4 m and 12.8 m, respectively, were used to simplify the derivation of model inputs. The results indicated small differences in the LE values between 6 m and 15 m resolutions, with a slight decrease in detail at 15 m due to losses in spatial variability. Lastly, the instantaneous (hourly) LE was extrapolated/upscaled to daily ET values using the incoming solar radiation (Rs) method. The results indicated that willow and cottonwood have the highest ET rates, followed by grass/shrubs and treated tamarisk. Although most of the treated tamarisk vegetation is in dead/dry condition, the green vegetation growing underneath resulted in a magnitude value of ET.

Contamination Assessment and Source Apportionment of Metals and Metalloids Pollution in Agricultural Soil: A Comparison of the APCA-MLR and APCA-GWR Models

Metals and metalloids accumulate in soil, which not only leads to soil degradation and crop yield reduction but also poses hazards to human health. Commonly, source apportionment methods generate an overall relationship between sources and elements and, thus, lack the ability to capture important geographical variations of pollution sources. The present work uses a dataset collected by intensive sampling (1848 topsoil samples containing the metals Cd, Hg, Cr, Pb, and a metalloid of As) in the Shanghai study area and proposes a synthetic approach to source apportionment in the condition of spatial heterogeneity (non-stationarity) through the integration of absolute principal component scores with geographically weighted regression (APCA-GWR). The results showed that three main sources were detected by the APCA, i.e., natural sources, such as alluvial soil materials; agricultural activities, especially the overuse of phosphate fertilizer; and atmospheric deposition pollution from industry coal combustion and transportation activities. APCA-GWR provided more accurate and site-specific pollution source information than the mainstream APCA-MLR, which was verified by higher R2, lower AIC values, and non-spatial autocorrelation of residuals. According to APCA-GWR, natural sources were responsible for As and Cr accumulation in the northern mainland and Pb accumulation in the southern and northern mainland. Atmospheric deposition was the main source of Hg in the entire study area and Pb in the eastern mainland and Chongming Island. Agricultural activities, especially the overuse of phosphate fertilizer, were the main source of Cd across the study area and of As and Cr in the southern regions of the mainland and the middle of Chongming Island. In summary, this study highlights the use of a synthetic APCA-GWR model to efficiently handle source apportionment issues with spatial heterogeneity, which can provide more accurate and specific pollution source information and better references for pollution prevention and human health protection.

Spatio-Temporal Heterogeneity of Climate Warming in the Chinese Tianshan Mountainous Region

The Chinese Tianshan mountainous region (CTMR) is a typical alpine region with high topographic heterogeneity, characterized by a large altitude span, complex topography, and diverse landscapes. A significant increase in air temperature had occurred in the CTMR during the last five decades. However, the detailed, comprehensive, and systematical characteristics of climate warming, such as its temporal and spatial heterogeneity, remain unclear. In this study, the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of climate warming across the CTMR had been comprehensively analyzed based on the 10-day air temperature data gathered during 1961–2020 from 26 meteorological stations. The results revealed local cooling in the context of general warming in the CTMR. The amplitude of variation (AV) varied from −0.57 to 3.64 °C, with the average value of 1.19 °C during the last six decades. The lapse rates of the elevation-dependent warming that existed annually, and in spring, summer, and autumn are −0.5 °C/100 m, −0.5 °C/100 m, −0.7 °C/100 m, and −0.4 °C/100 m, respectively. The warming in the CTMR is characteristic of high temporal heterogeneity, as represented by the amplified warming at 10-d scale for more than half a year, and the values of AV were higher than 1.09 °C of the global warming during 2011–2020 (GWV2011–2020). Meanwhile, the amplitudes of warming differed greatly on a seasonal scale, with the rates in spring, autumn, and winter higher than that in summer. The large spatial heterogeneity of climate warming also occurred across the CTMR. The warming pole existed in the warm part, the Turpan-Hami basin (below 1000 m asl) where the air temperature itself was high. That is, the warm places were warmer across the CTMR. The cooling pole was also found in the Kuqa region (about 1000 m asl). This study could greatly improve the understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics, patterns, and regional heterogeneity of climate warming across the CTMR and even northwest China.