Using Multi-Factor Analysis to Predict Urban Flood Depth Based on Naive Bayes

With global warming, the number of extreme weather events will increase. This scenario, combined with accelerating urbanization, increases the likelihood of urban flooding. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the characteristics of flooded areas caused by rainstorms, especially the flood depth. We applied the Naive Bayes theory to construct a model (NB model) to predict urban flood depth here in Zhengzhou. The model used 11 factors that affect the extent of flooding—rainfall, duration of rainfall, peak rainfall, the proportion of roads, woodlands, grasslands, water bodies and building, permeability, catchment area, and slope. The forecast depth of flooding from the NB model under different rainfall conditions was used to draw an urban inundation map by ArcGIS software. The results show that the probability and degree of urban flooding in Zhengzhou increases significantly after a return period of once every two years, and the flooded areas mainly occurred in older urban areas. The average root mean square error of prediction results was 0.062, which verifies the applicability and validity of our model in the depth prediction of urban floods. Our findings suggest the NB model as a feasible approach to predict urban flood depth.

IMPLEMENTASI TEORI NAIVE BAYES DALAM KLASIFIKASI CALON MAHASISWA BARU STMIK KHARISMA MAKASSAR

STMIK KHARISMA Makassar has graduated thousands of alumni since it was founded. However, the number of students registering is uncertain every year, although from 2016 to 2019 there has been an increase in the number of registrations. The problem is the percentage of the number of prospective students registering has actually decreased significantly. The purpose of this research is to implement the Naive Bayes theory in classification of STMIK KHARISMA Makassar prospective students. This research basically uses the Naive Bayes theory as a classifier, and is made using the Python programming language. At the classifier design stage, there were a total of 499 data collected from 2016 to 2019. The data was divided by a ratio of 80:20 for training data and test data. The result from the research indicate the level of accuracy of the classifier reaches 73%.

Being Bayesian: Discussions from the Perspectives of Stakeholders and Hydrologists

Bayes’ Theorem is gaining acceptance in hydrology, but it is still far from standard practice to cast hydrologic analyses in a Bayesian context—especially in the realm of hydrologic practice. Three short discussions are presented to encourage more complete adoption of a Bayesian approach. The first, aimed at a stakeholder audience, seeks to explain that an informal Bayesian analysis is the default approach that we all take to any decision made under uncertainty. The second, aimed at a general hydrologist audience, seeks to establish multi-model approaches as the natural choice for Bayesian hydrologic analysis. The goal of this discussion is to provide a bridge from the stakeholder’s natural approach to a more formal, quantitative Bayesian analysis. The third discussion is targeted to a more advanced hydrologist audience, suggesting that some elements of hydrologic practice do not yet reflect a Bayesian philosophy. In particular, an example is given that puts Bayes Theory to work to identify optimal observation sets before data are collected.

Resonance evaluation of Gadolinium isotopes

The objective of this paper is to present the results of an evaluation of the gadolinium isotopes with the main focus on the isotopes 155Gd and 157Gd. The evaluations were carried out in the resolved resonance region using the Reich-Moore formalism. The originality on the 155Gd and 157Gd evaluations is the addition of new high-resolution capture cross section measurements performed at the neutron time-of-flight, n_TOF facility for enriched samples and the statistical analysis of the resonance parameters. The resonance analysis was performed with the multilevel R-matrix code SAMMY together with the generalized least-squares technique based on the Bayes’ theory.

A Bayesian approach to accurate and robust signature detection on LINCS L1000 data

LINCS L1000 dataset produced by L1000 assay contains numerous cellular expression data induced by large sets of perturbagens. Although it provides invaluable resources for drug discovery as well as understanding of disease mechanisms, severe noise in the dataset makes the detection of reliable gene expression signals difficult. Existing methods for the peak deconvolution, either k-means based or Gaussian mixture model, cannot reliably recover the accurate expression level of genes in many cases, thereby limiting their robust applications in biomedical studies. Here, we have developed a novel Bayes’ theory based deconvolution algorithm that gives unbiased likelihood estimations for peak positions and characterizes the peak with a probability based z-scores. Based on above algorithm, a pipeline is built to process raw data from L1000 assay into signatures that represent the features of perturbagen. The performance of the proposed new pipeline is rigorously evaluated using the similarity between bio-replicates and between drugs with shared targets. The results show that the new signature derived from the proposed algorithm gives a substantially more reliable and informative representation for perturbagens than existing methods. Thus, our new Bayesian-based peak deconvolution and z-score calculation method may significantly boost the performance of invaluable L1000 data in the down-stream applications such as drug repurposing, disease modeling, and gene function prediction.