Understanding the Interrelationship Between Commodity and Stock Indices Daily Movement Using ACE and Recurrence Analysis

Author(s):  
Kousik Guhathakurta ◽  
Norbert Marwan ◽  
Basabi Bhattacharya ◽  
A. Roy Chowdhury
Author(s):  
Kousik Guhathakurta ◽  
Sharad Nath Bhattacharya ◽  
Santo Banerjee ◽  
Basabi Bhattacharya

The interrelationship between stock and commodity markets has been an issue of interest for both the academia and practitioners in the field of investment and wealth management. Traditionally, commodity has been a popular avenue for diversification in a mixed portfolio. However, this works well as long as there is little or no correlation between the two markets. This chapter presents an empirical investigation of the daily movement of stock and commodity index of two different countries to throw some light on the interrelationship between stock and commodity market. The uniqueness of this study lies in the choice of markets as also the methodology. The authors have chosen a developed market, viz., the US market, and an emerging market, viz., the Indian market. This study uses the major stock and commodity indices respectively for both countries for a period of three years. For analysis the authors have used the tools from nonlinear dynamics like recurrence analysis, power spectrum analysis, and delay based cross-correlation function. The investigation revealed that the dynamics of the time path of daily movement of Indian stock and commodity exchanges are much similar in nature while those of the US market are quite different. This chapter also models the respective time series using Geometric Brownian Motion and finds that the Indian data set performed much better than the US ones. This has a strong impact on strategy for designing mixed portfolios in Indian market.


2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (02) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rony Mahendra ◽  
Erwin Dyah Astawinetu

The research objective is to establish an optimal portfolio and know the difference between risk and return stock index portfolio candidates and non-candidates. Method used in the preparation of this research portfolio is the single index model, while the samples of this study are active world stock indices version of The Wall Street Journal during the period August 2012 - August 2016 and The Global Dow is used as the benchmark stock index. In establishing the optimal portfolio is used two perspectives: the Rupiah perspective and the U.S. Dollar perspective. The results showed there were three stock indices from the perspective of Rupiah and 8 share index menurutperspektif U.S. Dollar that make up the optimal portfolio, with the cut-of-pointsebesar 0,01393menurut Rupiah perspective and the perspective of 0.0078 US Dollars Based on the perspective of return expectations Rupiah obtained by 0.0258 with a risk of 0.06512. Berdarkan perspective of US Dollars, obtained return expectations at 0.0154 with a risk of 0.0292. From the test results showed that the hypothesis, the return on both perspectives there are significant differences between the index of the candidate, with a non-candidate. Then the risk of stock index, among the candidates, with a non-candidate, the Rupiah perspective there is no difference, but in the perspective of US Dollars, there are significant differences.Keywords: Single Index Model, candidate portfolio, optimal portfolio, expected return, excess return to beta, cut-off-point


2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magnus Erik Hvass Pedersen
Keyword(s):  

2019 ◽  
Vol 55 (4) ◽  
pp. 1199-1242
Author(s):  
Georg Cejnek ◽  
Otto Randl

This article studies time variation in the expected excess returns of traded claims on dividends, bonds, and stock indices for international markets. We introduce a novel dividend risk factor that complements the bond risk factor of Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005). By aggregating over 4 regions (United States, United Kingdom, Eurozone, and Japan), we create global dividend and bond factors. Our global 2-factor model captures the excess returns of most Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) country indices, as well as a variety of other test assets. Our findings highlight the value of the information contained in dividend and bond forward curves and suggest substantial comovement in international risk premia.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie‐Pier Poulin ◽  
Jeanne Clermont ◽  
Dominique Berteaux

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