The Rise and Fall of India’s Relative Investment Price: A Tale of Policy Error and Reform

India’s relative price of investment rose 44 percent from 1981 to 1991 and fell 26 percent from 1991 to 2006. We build a simple DGE model, calibrated to Indian data, in order to explore the impact of capital import substitution policies and their reform post-1991 in accounting for this rise and fall. Our model delivers a 23 percent rise before reform and a 31 percent fall thereafter. GDP per effective labor was 3 percent lower in 1991 compared to 1981 due to import restrictions on capital goods. Their removal, and a 71 percentage point reduction in tariff rates, raised GDP per effective labor permanently by 20 percent. (JEL E22, E23, F13, O11, O16, O19)

Generalizability of Homeopathic Prognostic Factor Research Outcome in COVID-19 Treatment: Comparison of Data

Background/Objective During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, several homeopathic prognostic factor research (PFR) projects have been undertaken. We found two projects with comparable outcomes to assess consistency and possible flaws. Methods Two comparisons were made. (1) Outcome of a PFR data collection from the Liga Medicorum Homoeopathica Internationalis (LMHI) by about 100 doctors with 541 cases was compared with a previous analysis of 161 cases in the same database. (2) The updated LMHI database was also compared with a data collection carried out in India by four doctors with a total of 1,445 cases. Differences that resulted in conflicting outcomes (indication in one, contraindication in the other) were examined for possible causes. Results There was only a single outcome in the updated LMHI database that conflicted with the previous dataset, and this could have been due to statistical variation. The Indian data contained many cases, from few doctors, while the LMHI database had few cases per doctor, but many doctors. The overlap between the projects (individual cases entered in both) was between zero and 22%. In 72 comparisons we found six (8.3%) conflicting outcomes. Possible causes were statistical error due to small numbers of cases and/or observers, confirmation bias, and keynote prescribing if this resulted in symptoms being inadequately checked. Conclusion There was little conflict between the outcomes of the two versions of one project and between the two different PFR projects. Differences could mostly be explained by causes that can be managed. This consistency should primarily be interpreted as showing a strong overall consensus between homeopathic practitioners worldwide, but with variation of consensus between small groups of practitioners.

Malaria, COVID-19 and angiotensin-converting enzyme 2: what does the available population data say?

The etiopathogenesis of COVID-19 and its differential geographic spread suggest some populations are apparently ‘less affected’ through many host-related factors that involve angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) protein, which is also the entry receptor for SARS-CoV-2. The role of ACE2 has been well studied in COVID-19 but not in the context of malaria and COVID-19. We have previously suggested how malaria might intersect with COVID-19 through ACE2 mutation and here we evaluate the currently available data that could provide a link between the two diseases. Based on the existing global and Indian data on malaria, COVID-19 and the suggested ACE2 mutation, the association could not be examined robustly, neither accepting nor refuting the suggested hypothesis. We strongly recommend targeted evaluation of this hypothesis through carefully designed robust molecular epidemiological studies.

India, the ‘Swing State’

If India’s population and Internet penetration grow at current rates, it will make a large contribution to the growth of the Internet. It has a world-class technology establishment. The chapter considers several possible policy directions. Openness is looked at through experiments in Andhra Pradesh to provide digital government. The attempt by Jio Platforms to provide integrated services for mobile users exemplifies the Commercial Internet. The influence of the Modi government’s Hindutva ideology is considered in a discussion of paternalism, together with the Aadhaar ID platform, and the Indian Data Protection Bill. There is a lot of misinformation and conspiracy theory in India, but it has not created a spoiler model to export misinformation to other countries. Finally, the export of ID technology using open source software and open standards is considered as a potential future Indian influence on the global Internet.

Mapping First to Second wave transition of covid19 Indian data via Sigmoid function and prediction of Third wave

Understanding first and second wave of covid19 Indian data along with its few selective states, we have realized a transition between two Sigmoid pattern with twice larger growth parameter and maximum values of cumulative data. As a result of those transition, time duration of second wave shrink to half of that first wave with four times larger peak values. It is really interesting that the facts can be easily understood by simple algebraic expressions of Sigmoid function. After understanding the crossing zone between first and second wave curves, a third wave Sigmoid pattern is guessed.

Regional disparity of covid-19 infections: an investigation using state-level Indian data

Using the state-level panel data for India, we establish that Covid infections are clustered in more urbanized, and prosperous states. Poverty lowers cases showing evidence of herd immunity of poor which stands in sharp contrast with the developed part of the world. Our dynamic panel regression results indicate that Covid infections are persistent across states and unlocking has aggravated the infections. We also find that richer and more urbanised states with better health infrastructure and governance perform more tests. The policy lesson from this exercise is that the authorities should monitor immunization and Covid protocols in densely populated urban areas.

COVID-19 and Lockdown in India: Evaluation using Analysis of Covariance

Background: The lockdown in India has entered into its ninth month to curb the Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic. The objective of the present study is to evaluate impact of different phases of lockdown on evolution of new cases of infection and deaths due to COVID-19.Methods: In this retrospective longitudinal study, the Indian data on new cases of infection and deaths due to COVID-19 were retrieved from John Hopkins University dashboard. The cases from 25 March to 31 October 2020 were analyzed using analysis of covariance for four phases of lockdown and five phases of unlockdown.Results: The coefficients of regression for new cases did not differ significantly for initial four phases of lockdown and unlock-1, while from unlock-2 the coefficients showed significant decrease till unlock-5. While death cases showed no significant differences between coefficients of regression for initial four phases of lockdown and unlock, but coefficient of unlock-5 was significantly lower than unlock-4. Conclusion: The trends of coefficients of regression of new cases and deaths reveals positive effects of lockdown in flattening the epidemic curve. Though the pandemic is on downslope, till the availability of vaccines, non-pharmaceutical measures such as social distancing, wearing of masks need to be implemented.