scholarly journals Evaluation of Cardiac Ultrasound Data by Bayesian Probability Maps

Author(s):  
Mattias Hansson ◽  
Sami Brandt ◽  
Petri Gudmundsson ◽  
Finn Lindgren
2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 1184-1199 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mattias Hansson ◽  
Sami S. Brandt ◽  
Johan Lindström ◽  
Petri Gudmundsson ◽  
Amra Jujić ◽  
...  

2011 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 937-940
Author(s):  
Yu-feng Zhao ◽  
Yao Zhao ◽  
Zhen-feng Zhu

Author(s):  
Timothy McGrew

One of the central complaints about Bayesian probability is that it places no constraints on individual subjectivity in one’s initial probability assignments. Those sympathetic to Bayesian methods have responded by adding restrictions motivated by broader epistemic concerns about the possibility of changing one’s mind. This chapter explores some cases where, intuitively, a straightforward Bayesian model yields unreasonable results. Problems arise in these cases not because there is something wrong with the Bayesian formalism per se but because standard textbook illustrations teach us to represent our inferences in simplified ways that break down in extreme cases. It also explores some interesting limitations on the extent to which successive items of evidence ought to induce us to change our minds when certain screening conditions obtain.


2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. e000276 ◽  
Author(s):  
Orhan Uzun ◽  
Julia Kennedy ◽  
Colin Davies ◽  
Anthony Goodwin ◽  
Nerys Thomas ◽  
...  

ObjectivesThis study describes the design, delivery and efficacy of a regional fetal cardiac ultrasound training programme. This programme aimed to improve the antenatal detection of congenital heart disease (CHD) and its effect on fetal and postnatal outcomes.Design setting and participantsThis was a prospective study that compared antenatal CHD detection rates by professionals from 13 hospitals in Wales before and after engaging in our ‘skills development programme’. Existing fetal cardiac practice and perinatal outcomes were continuously audited and progressive targets were set. The work was undertaken by the Welsh Fetal Cardiovascular Network, Antenatal Screening Wales (ASW), a superintendent sonographer and a fetal cardiologist.InterventionsA core professional network was established, engaging all stakeholders (including patients, health boards, specialist commissioners, ASW, ultrasonographers, radiologists, obstetricians, midwives and paediatricians). A cardiac educational lead (midwife, superintendent sonographer, radiologist, obstetrician, or a fetal medicine specialist) was established in each hospital. A new cardiac anomaly screening protocol (‘outflow tract view’) was created and training on the new protocol was systematically delivered at each centre. Data were prospectively collected and outcomes were continuously audited: locally by the lead fetal cardiologist; regionally by the Congenital Anomaly Register and Information Service in Wales; and nationally by the National Institute for Cardiac Outcomes and Research (NICOR) in the UK.Main outcome measuresPatient satisfaction; improvements in individual sonographer skills, confidence and competency; true positive referral rate; local hospital detection rate; national detection rate of CHD; clinical outcomes of selected cardiac abnormalities; reduction of geographical health inequality; cost efficacy.ResultsHigh levels of patient satisfaction were demonstrated and the professional skill mix in each centre was improved. The confidence and competency of sonographers was enhanced. Each centre demonstrated a reduction in the false-positive referral rate and a significant increase in cardiac anomaly detection rate. According to the latest NICOR data, since implementing the new training programme Wales has sustained its status as UK lead for CHD detection. Health outcomes of children with CHD have improved, especially in cases of transposition of the great arteries (for which no perinatal mortality has been reported since 2008). Standardised care led to reduction of geographical health inequalities with substantial cost saving to the National Health Service due to reduced false-positive referral rates. Our successful model has been adopted by other fetal anomaly screening programmes in the UK.ConclusionsAntenatal cardiac ultrasound mass training programmes can be delivered effectively with minimal impact on finite healthcare resources. Sustainably high CHD detection rates can only be achieved by empowering the regional screening workforce through continuous investment in lifelong learning activities. These should be underpinned by high quality service standards, effective care pathways, and robust clinical governance and audit practices.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gini Priyadharshini Jeyashanmugaraja ◽  
Evgeny Shloknik ◽  
Deborah Tosin Akanya ◽  
Kristin Stawiarski ◽  
Christopher Winterbottom ◽  
...  

ABSTRACT A 63-year-old woman was admitted with severe respiratory distress requiring mechanical ventilation and shock requiring vasopressor support. She was found to have COVID-19 pneumonia. Focused cardiac ultrasound performed for evaluation of shock was significant for right ventricular dilation and dysfunction with signs of right ventricular pressure overload. Given worsening shock and hypoxemia systemic thrombolysis was administered for presumed massive pulmonary embolism with remarkable improvement of hemodynamics and respiratory failure. In next 24 h patient’s neurologic status deteriorated to the point of unresponsiveness. Emergent computed tomography showed multiple ischemic infarcts concerning for embolic etiology. Focused cardiac ultrasound with agitated saline showed large right to left shunt due to a patent foramen ovale. This was confirmed by transesophageal echocardiogram, 5 months later. This case highlights strengths of focused cardiac ultrasound in critical care setting and in patients with COVID-19 when access to other imaging modalities can be limited.


2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Kevin Vanslette ◽  
Abdullatif Al Alsheikh ◽  
Kamal Youcef-Toumi

AbstractWe motive and calculate Newton–Cotes quadrature integration variance and compare it directly with Monte Carlo (MC) integration variance. We find an equivalence between deterministic quadrature sampling and random MC sampling by noting that MC random sampling is statistically indistinguishable from a method that uses deterministic sampling on a randomly shuffled (permuted) function. We use this statistical equivalence to regularize the form of permissible Bayesian quadrature integration priors such that they are guaranteed to be objectively comparable with MC. This leads to the proof that simple quadrature methods have expected variances that are less than or equal to their corresponding theoretical MC integration variances. Separately, using Bayesian probability theory, we find that the theoretical standard deviations of the unbiased errors of simple Newton–Cotes composite quadrature integrations improve over their worst case errors by an extra dimension independent factor {\propto N^{-\frac{1}{2}}}. This dimension independent factor is validated in our simulations.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 666
Author(s):  
Mahkameh Zarekarizi ◽  
K. Joel Roop-Eckart ◽  
Sanjib Sharma ◽  
Klaus Keller

Understanding flood probabilities is essential to making sound decisions about flood-risk management. Many people rely on flood probability maps to inform decisions about purchasing flood insurance, buying or selling real-estate, flood-proofing a house, or managing floodplain development. Current flood probability maps typically use flood zones (for example the 1 in 100 or 1 in 500-year flood zones) to communicate flooding probabilities. However, this choice of communication format can miss important details and lead to biased risk assessments. Here we develop, test, and demonstrate the FLOod Probability Interpolation Tool (FLOPIT). FLOPIT interpolates flood probabilities between water surface elevation to produce continuous flood-probability maps. FLOPIT uses water surface elevation inundation maps for at least two return periods and creates Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) as well as inundation maps for new return levels. Potential advantages of FLOPIT include being open-source, relatively easy to implement, capable of creating inundation maps from agencies other than FEMA, and applicable to locations where FEMA published flood inundation maps but not flood probability. Using publicly available data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood risk databases as well as state and national datasets, we produce continuous flood-probability maps at three example locations in the United States: Houston (TX), Muncy (PA), and Selinsgrove (PA). We find that the discrete flood zones generally communicate substantially lower flood probabilities than the continuous estimates.


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