Risk-Based Decision Making Framework for Investment in the Real Estate Industry

2012 ◽  
pp. 259-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nur Atiqah Rochin Demong ◽  
Jie Lu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Industry ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Decision Making Framework

scholarly journals QUANTITATIVE DECISION MAKING IN LAND BANKING: A MONTE CARLO SIMULATION FOR CHINA'S REAL ESTATE DEVELOPERS

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 355-369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haijun Bao ◽  
Alain Yee-Loong Chong ◽  
Hongdi Wang ◽  
Liyuan Wang ◽  
Yikun Huang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Decision Model ◽  
Real Estate Industry ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Land Banking ◽  
Future Developments

The real estate industry is one of the fast growing industries in many developing countries such as China and India. The Chinese real estate industry has gone through many reforms from offering housing as part of its social welfare system, to the current capitalist model based on demand and supply. Due to these reforms and the shortage of lands for development in China's urban cities, many Chinese property firms have resorted to land banking in order to secure land property for future developments. However, in China, land speculation is considered illegal, while failure to purchase the suitable land for future developments will hinder the real estate developers’ future business and growth. The purpose of this paper is to develop a decision making model for property developments in their land banking decisions and strategies. The paper employed mathematical modeling and Monte Carlo simulation to examine our decision model, and further validated our results by conducting the simulation by using China Vanke Co. Ltd as a case study. This study is one of the first few studies that develop a decision model for land banking in China. It also helps real estate enterprises to make rational and dynamic decision in the current dynamic property market.

The human factor: the “unknown unknowns” in the real estate development process

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elaine Worzala ◽  
David Wyman
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Human Factor ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Development ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Future ◽  
Decision Making Framework

PurposeVolatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA) are terms the military have coined to describe the environment they often operate in. This paper examines how this decision-making framework can be used to better inform real estate investment and development. In celebration of this journal's 40th anniversary, we also explore how VUCA can be related to and expand on the teachings of Dr. James A. Graaskamp who published his seminal piece on the Fundamentals of Real Estate Development (1981) the same year. In that piece, he highlights the importance of paying attention to the human factor, the consumers of real estate.Design/methodology/approachThis is a thought piece on an alternative decision-making framework that can help capture the dynamic environment that commercial real estate investors and developers are currently working in. VUCA captures the difficulty of predicting the future in a world of accelerating, unpredictable change. This is particularly important in today's rapidly changing world caused not only by the current COVID-19 pandemic but also the exponential growth of the proptech industry as well as the increasing risks and opportunities associated with climate change that continues to impact the built environment.FindingsThis is not a traditional research project with empirical findings. We are presenting an alternative framework for thinking about making investment decisions in these current volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous times today and in the future. In addition, the importance of multidisciplinary training and the human factor are stressed.Research limitations/implicationsThere are no limitations to this research as it is the ideas of the authors. Implications are to help real estate investors, developers and educators better understand the environment that they are working in.Practical implicationsVUCA captures better the dynamic nature of real estate investments compared to traditional analysis. It helps one better analyze the risks and returns but also to acknowledge that there is a lot you cannot predict and there are many exogenous variables that can, at times, completely change the rules of the game. Flexibility and adaptability are essential tools for working in a VUCA environment. In addition, the human factor plays an increasingly important role and real estate investors and developers that clearly understand this and focus on the consumer will likely be more successful.Originality/valueWe believe that this is the first time that VUCA has been used in the real estate academic literature.

Study on Business Integration Strategy for Real Estate Development

2013 ◽  
Vol 838-841 ◽  
pp. 3135-3141
Author(s):  
Yi Yong Lin ◽  
You Song Wang
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Cost Model ◽  
Market Competition ◽  
Business Management ◽  
Real Estate Industry ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Estate Enterprise ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Management Capacity ◽  
Product Optimization

Based on the features of the real estate industry, a cost model was established for analyze integration strategies. The analysis results show that a real estate enterprise should give a priority to integration of the business activities, of which the costs themselves are not large but which will greatly influence the whole project and other development business activities; and that the integration in a real estate enterprise is influenced by the product optimization degree, the business management capacity, and the degree of market competition. The integration in the real estate industry is influenced by the product optimization degree and the business management capacity, but it has nothing to do with the degree of market competition.

scholarly journals Research on the Influence of Real Estate Development on Private Investment: A Case Study of China

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 2659 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiangtao Li ◽  
Jianyue Ji ◽  
Huiwen Guo ◽  
Lei Chen
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Medium Size ◽  
Real Estate Development ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Real Estate Industry ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Investment In China

Private investment in China, as a developing country, is an important source of financing for Chinese SMEs (Small and Medium-Size Enterprises) and has played a major role in the development of the real economy. However, in 2016, the growth rate of private investment in China dropped from 10.18% to 3.17%, which had a significant impact on the real economy. At the same time, China’s real estate market has developed rapidly, attracting a large number of capital inflows. The relationship between real estate development and private investment in China is worth considering. This study first, theoretically analyzes the influence mechanism of real estate industry on private investment, pointing out that within a modest development range, the development of real estate industry can promote private investment through the industrial linkage, urbanization, and balance sheet effects, but when real estate is overdeveloped, it has an inhibitory effect on private investment through vampire effect, raising costs and reducing demand effect. In other words, real estate has different effects on private investment in different developmental periods. Therefore, there is a non-linear relationship between the two variables. Second, the relevant provincial panel data of 31 provinces in mainland China from 2003 to 2015 were selected. Using the dynamic panel system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), this study estimated the correlation between real estate development and private investment. The empirical results showed that the development of the real estate industry has a significant impact on the level of private investment; the two showing an “inverted U-shaped” relationship. At present, in some provinces in China, the real estate industry has exceeded the inverted U-shaped threshold. To boost the vitality of private investment in promoting real economic growth, the development of the real estate industry should be restricted, and house prices should be properly regulated.

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