monte carlo simulation
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Jakob Heins ◽  
Jan Schoenfelder ◽  
Steffen Heider ◽  
Axel R. Heller ◽  
Jens O. Brunner

We present a scalable forecasting framework with a Monte Carlo simulation to forecast the short-term bed occupancy of patients with confirmed and suspected COVID-19 in intensive care units and regular wards. Our forecasts were a central part of the official weekly reports of the Bavarian State Ministry of Health and Care from May 2020 to March 2021.

2022 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
Muhammad Ilyas ◽  
Shaheen Abbas ◽  
Afzal Ali

In this study, we present a univariate probability distribution through application of the three Sub and Super Exponential heavier-longer and lighter-shorter tails fitting. This univariate family includes the Lognormal, Gamma and Weibull distribution, the adequacy of the distribution tails is obtained by adequate Fitting Tests and descriptive Criterion. It emphasizes on tail values and is independent of the number of intervals. In this regards the time series analysis for the last three centuries of the logarithm population data sets over to Karachi region (from1729 to1946 and from 1951 to 2018) is used, which contains irregular and regular length and peaks, That peaks /tails fitting is attained by methods for validation and normality tests and defined by stochastic depiction. In other hand, Weibull and Lognormal distribution tails are found as heavier distribution by two validation tests (Maximum Likelihood Estimation and probability of correct selection), In the final section, the univariate probability distributions are used to Monte Carlo simulation for generating the actual population data, it indicates that the heavy-tailed Lognormal and Weibull distributions are also fitted contract than the more commonly seen lighter tailed Gamma distribution. So, the Monte Carlo Simulation performs the appropriate Lognormal and Weibull distributions for irregular and regular data and generate data values (298 and 69) from duration of 1729 to 2020 and 1951 to 2020. Copyright(c) The Author

Materials ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 562
Ying Hao ◽  
Ming Gao ◽  
Jiajie Gong

The study of the bifurcation, random vibration, chaotic dynamics, and control of laminated composite beams are research hotspots. In this paper, the parametric random vibration of an axially moving laminated shape memory alloy (SMA) beam was investigated. In light of the Timoshenko beam theory and taking into consideration axial motion effects and axial forces, a random dynamic equation of laminated SMA beams was deduced. The Falk’s polynomial constitutive model of SMA was used to simulate the nonlinear random dynamic behavior of the laminated beam. Additionally, the numerical of the probability density function and power spectral density curves was obtained through the Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicated that the large amplitude vibration character of the beam can be caused by random perturbation on axial velocity.

Water ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 180
Arup Acharjee ◽  
Zia Ahmed ◽  
Pankaj Kumar ◽  
Rafiul Alam ◽  
M. Safiur Rahman ◽  

River sediment can be used to measure the pollution level in natural water, as it serves as one of the vital environmental indicators. This study aims to assess heavy metal pollution namely Copper (Cu), Iron (Fe), Manganese (Mn), Zinc (Zn), Nickel (Ni), Lead (Pb), and Cadmium (Cd) in Surma River. Further, it compares potential ecological risk index values using Hakanson Risk Index (RI) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) approach to evaluate the environmental risks caused by these heavy metals. in the study area. With obtained results, enrichment of individual heavy metals in the study area was found in the order of Ni > Pb > Cd > Mn > Cu > Zn. Also, variance in MCS index contributed by studied metals was in the order of Cd > Pb > Ni > Zn > Cu. None of the heavy metals, except Ni, showed moderate contamination of the sediment. Risk index values from RI and MCS provide valuable insights in the contamination profile of the river, indicating the studied river is currently under low ecological risk for the studied heavy metals. This study can be utilized to assess the susceptibility of the river sediment to heavy metal pollution near an urban core, and to have a better understanding of the contamination profile of a river.

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