An Experimental Study of Human Decisions in Sequential Information Acquisition in Design: Impact of Cost and Task Complexity

Author(s):  
Ashish M. Chaudhari ◽  
Jitesh H. Panchal
2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 937-982 ◽  
Author(s):  
Debora Di Caprio ◽  
Francisco J. Santos-Arteaga ◽  
Madjid Tavana

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study the optimal sequential information acquisition process of a rational decision maker (DM) when allowed to acquire n pieces of information from a set of bi-dimensional products whose characteristics vary in a continuum set. Design/methodology/approach – The authors incorporate a heuristic mechanism that makes the n-observation scenario faced by a DM tractable. This heuristic allows the DM to assimilate substantial amounts of information and define an acquisition strategy within a coherent analytical framework. Numerical simulations are introduced to illustrate the main results obtained. Findings – The information acquisition behavior modeled in this paper corresponds to that of a perfectly rational DM, i.e. endowed with complete and transitive preferences, whose objective is to choose optimally among the products available subject to a heuristic assimilation constraint. The current paper opens the way for additional research on heuristic information acquisition and choice processes when considered from a satisficing perspective that accounts for cognitive limits in the information processing capacities of DMs. Originality/value – The proposed information acquisition algorithm does not allow for the use of standard dynamic programming techniques. That is, after each observation is gathered, a rational DM must modify his information acquisition strategy and recalculate his or her expected payoffs in terms of the observations already acquired and the information still to be gathered.


Author(s):  
Murtuza N. Shergadwala ◽  
Jitesh H. Panchal

Abstract Designers make information acquisition decisions, such as where to search and when to stop the search. Such decisions are typically made sequentially, such that at every search step designers gain information by learning about the design space. However, when designers begin acquiring information, their decisions are primarily based on their prior knowledge. Prior knowledge influences the initial set of assumptions that designers use to learn about the design space. These assumptions are collectively termed as inductive biases. Identifying such biases can help us better understand how designers use their prior knowledge to solve problems in the light of uncertainty. Thus, in this study, we identify inductive biases in humans in sequential information acquisition tasks. To do so, we analyze experimental data from a set of behavioral experiments conducted in the past [1–5]. All of these experiments were designed to study various factors that influence sequential information acquisition behaviors. Across these studies, we identify similar decision making behaviors in the participants in their very first decision to “choose x”. We find that their choices of “x” are not uniformly distributed in the design space. Since such experiments are abstractions of real design scenarios, it implies that further contextualization of such experiments would only increase the influence of these biases. Thus, we highlight the need to study the influence of such biases to better understand designer behaviors. We conclude that in the context of Bayesian modeling of designers’ behaviors, utilizing the identified inductive biases would enable us to better model designer’s priors for design search contexts as compared to using non-informative priors.


1993 ◽  
Vol 36 (11) ◽  
pp. 1473-1482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijit Chinburapa ◽  
Lon N. Larson ◽  
Merrie Brucks ◽  
JoLaine Draugalis ◽  
J.Lyle Bootman ◽  
...  

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