Storm surge risk assessment method for a coastal county in China: case study of Jinshan District, Shanghai

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 627-640 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shi Xianwu ◽  
Qiu Jufei ◽  
Chen Bingrui ◽  
Zhang Xiaojie ◽  
Guo Haoshuang ◽  
...  
Author(s):  
Zuzhen Ji ◽  
Dirk Pons ◽  
John Pearse

Successful implementation of Health and Safety (H&S) systems requires an effective mechanism to assess risk. Existing methods focus primarily on measuring the safety aspect; the risk of an accident is determined based on the product of severity of consequence and likelihood of the incident arising. The health component, i.e., chronic harm, is more difficult to assess. Partially, this is due to both consequences and the likelihood of health issues, which may be indeterminate. There is a need to develop a quantitative risk measurement for H&S risk management and with better representation for chronic health issues. The present paper has approached this from a different direction, by adopting a public health perspective of quality of life. We have then changed the risk assessment process to accommodate this. This was then applied to a case study. The case study showed that merely including the chronic harm scales appeared to be sufficient to elicit a more detailed consideration of hazards for chronic harm. This suggests that people are not insensitive to chronic harm hazards, but benefit from having a framework in which to communicate them. A method has been devised to harmonize safety and harm risk assessments. The result was a comprehensive risk assessment method with consideration of safety accidents and chronic health issues. This has the potential to benefit industry by making chronic harm more visible and hence more preventable.


2014 ◽  
Vol 114 (9) ◽  
pp. 1499-1518 ◽  
Author(s):  
Remigiusz Romuald Iwańkowicz ◽  
Wlodzimierz Rosochacki

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a risk assessment method for production processes of large-size steel ship hulls. Design/methodology/approach – This study uses a quantitative-probabilistic approach with involvement of clustering technique in order to analyse the database of accidents and predict the process risk. The case-based reasoning is used in here. A set of technological hazard classes as a basis for analysing the similarities between the production processes is proposed. The method has been explained using a case study on large-size shipyard. Findings – Statistical and clustering approach ensures effective risk managing in shipbuilding process designing. Results show that by selection of adequate number of clusters in the database, the quality of predictions can be controlled. Research limitations/implications – The suggested k-means method using the Euclidean distance measure is initial approach. Testing the other distance measures and consideration of fuzzy clustering method is desirable in the future. The analysis in the case study is simplified. The use of the method according to prediction of risk related to loss of health or life among people exposed to the hazards is presented. Practical implications – The risk index allows to compare the processes in terms of security, as well as provide significant information at the technology design stage of production task. Originality/value – There are no studies on quantitative methods developed specifically for managing risks in shipbuilding processes. Proposed list of technological hazard classes allows to utilize database of past processes accidents in risk prediction. The clustering method of analysing the database is agile thanks to the number of clusters parameter. The case study basing on actual data from the real shipyard constitutes additional value of the paper.


2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 220-227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Jahanfar ◽  
Mohsen Amirmojahedi ◽  
Bahram Gharabaghi ◽  
Brajesh Dubey ◽  
Edward McBean ◽  
...  

Rapid population growth of major urban centres in many developing countries has created massive landfills with extraordinary heights and steep side-slopes, which are frequently surrounded by illegal low-income residential settlements developed too close to landfills. These extraordinary landfills are facing high risks of catastrophic failure with potentially large numbers of fatalities. This study presents a novel method for risk assessment of landfill slope failure, using probabilistic analysis of potential failure scenarios and associated fatalities. The conceptual framework of the method includes selecting appropriate statistical distributions for the municipal solid waste (MSW) material shear strength and rheological properties for potential failure scenario analysis. The MSW material properties for a given scenario is then used to analyse the probability of slope failure and the resulting run-out length to calculate the potential risk of fatalities. In comparison with existing methods, which are solely based on the probability of slope failure, this method provides a more accurate estimate of the risk of fatalities associated with a given landfill slope failure. The application of the new risk assessment method is demonstrated with a case study for a landfill located within a heavily populated area of New Delhi, India.


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