Impact of geomagnetic disturbances on power transformers: risk assessment of extreme events and data availability

Certain rare events can have a drastic impact on power systems. Such events are generally known as high-impact low-probability (HILP) events. It is challenging to predict the occurrence of a HILP event mainly due to lack of data or sparsity and scarcity of data points. Yet, it is essential to implement an evidence-driven asset management strategy. In this paper, event tree analysis is used to assess the risk of power transformer failure due to a geomagnetically induced currents (GIC). Those currents are caused by geomagnetic disturbances in Earth’s magnetic field due to solar activity. To assess the impact on power transformers, an understanding of the mechanism and sequence of sub-events that lead to failure is required to be able to construct an event tree. Based on the constructed event tree, mitigation actions can be derived. GIC blockers or reducers can be used. However, that would require extensive installation and maintenance efforts, and the impact on system reliability has to be studied. Also, such technology is still in its infancy and needs extensive validation. A suggested alternative is to combine early warning data from solar observatories with a load management plan to keep transformers below their rated operation point such that a DC offset due to GIC would not cause magnetic core saturation and overheating. Load management and the risk of early warning false positives can incur a negative effect on reliability. Nevertheless, the risk assessment performed in this paper show that incorporating load management in asset planning is a viable measure that would offset the probability of catastrophic failure.