scholarly journals Ring current influence on auroral electrojet predictions

1999 ◽  
Vol 17 (10) ◽  
pp. 1268-1275 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Gleisner ◽  
H. Lundstedt
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Ring Current ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Wind Data ◽  
Common Source ◽  
Neural Net ◽  
Operational Forecasting ◽  
Storms And Substorms ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
Strong Control

Abstract. Geomagnetic storms and substorms develop under strong control of the solar wind. This is demonstrated by the fact that the geomagnetic activity indices Dst and AE can be predicted from the solar wind alone. A consequence of the strong control by a common source is that substorm and storm indices tend to be highly correlated. However, a part of this correlation is likely to be an effect of internal magnetospheric processes, such as a ring-current modulation of the solar wind-AE relation. The present work extends previous studies of nonlinear AE predictions from the solar wind. It is examined whether the AE predictions are modulated by the Dst index.This is accomplished by comparing neural network predictions from Dst and the solar wind, with predictions from the solar wind alone. Two conclusions are reached: (1) with an optimal set of solar-wind data available, the AE predictions are not markedly improved by the Dst input, but (2) the AE predictions are improved by Dst if less than, or other than, the optimum solar-wind data are available to the net. It appears that the solar wind-AE relation described by an optimized neural net is not significantly modified by the magnetosphere's Dst state. When the solar wind alone is used to predict AE, the correlation between predicted and observed AE is 0.86, while the prediction residual is nearly uncorrelated to Dst. Further, the finding that Dst can partly compensate for missing information on the solar wind, is of potential importance in operational forecasting where gaps in the stream of real time solar-wind data are a common occurrence.Key words. Magnetospheric physics (solar wind · magnetosphere interactions; storms and substorms)

scholarly journals Predicting geomagnetic storms from solar-wind data using time-delay neural networks

1996 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 679-686 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Gleisner ◽  
H. Lundstedt ◽  
P. Wintoft
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Solar Wind ◽  
Time Delay ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Ring Current ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Time History ◽  
Recovery Phase ◽  
Wind Data ◽  
Data Sequence

Abstract. We have used time-delay feed-forward neural networks to compute the geomagnetic-activity index Dst one hour ahead from a temporal sequence of solar-wind data. The input data include solar-wind density n, velocity V and the southward component Bz of the interplanetary magnetic field. Dst is not included in the input data. The networks implement an explicit functional relationship between the solar wind and the geomagnetic disturbance, including both direct and time-delayed non-linear relations. In this study we especially consider the influence of varying the temporal size of the input-data sequence. The networks are trained on data covering 6600 h, and tested on data covering 2100 h. It is found that the initial and main phases of geomagnetic storms are well predicted, almost independent of the length of the input-data sequence. However, to predict the recovery phase, we have to use up to 20 h of solar-wind input data. The recovery phase is mainly governed by the ring-current loss processes, and is very much dependent on the ring-current history, and thus also the solar-wind history. With due consideration of the time history when optimizing the networks, we can reproduce 84% of the Dst variance.

scholarly journals Decay of the Dst field of geomagnetic disturbance after substorm onset and its implication to storm-substorm relation

1996 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 608-618 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Iyemori ◽  
D. R. K. Rao
Keyword(s):  
Ring Current ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Sharp Decrease ◽  
Geomagnetic Disturbance ◽  
Substorm Onset ◽  
Significant Development ◽  
H Index ◽  
Magnetospheric Tail ◽  
Storms And Substorms ◽  
Substorm Onsets

Abstract. In order to investigate the causal relationship between magnetic storms and substorms, variations of the mid-latitude geomagnetic indices, ASY (asymmetric part) and SYM (symmetric part), at substorm onsets are examined. Substorm onsets are defined by three different phenomena; (1) a rapid increase in the mid-latitude asymmetric-disturbance indices, ASY-D and ASY-H, with a shape of so-called `mid-latitude positive bay\\'; (2) a sharp decrease in the AL index; (3) an onset of Pi2 geomagnetic pulsation. The positive bays are selected using eye inspection and a pattern-matching technique. The 1-min-resolution SYM-H index, which is essentially the same as the hourly Dst index except in terms of the time resolution, does not show any statistically significant development after the onset of substorms; it tends to decay after the onset rather than to develop. It is suggested by a simple model calculation that the decay of the magnetospheric tail current after substorm onset is responsible for the decay of the Dst field. The relation between the IMF southward turning and the development of the Dst field is re-examined. The results support the idea that the geomagnetic storms and substorms are independent processes; that is, the ring-current development is not the result of the frequent occurrence of substorms, but that of enhanced convection caused by the large southward IMF. A substorm is the process of energy dissipation in the magnetosphere, and its contribution to the storm-time ring-current formation seems to be negligible. The decay of the Dst field after a substorm onset is explained by a magnetospheric energy theorem.

scholarly journals Prediction of SYM-H index during large storms by NARX neural network from IMF and solar wind data

2010 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 381-393 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Cai ◽  
S. Y. Ma ◽  
Y. L. Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Solar Wind ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Characteristic Time ◽  
Ring Current ◽  
Wind Data ◽  
Distinct Advantage ◽  
Elman Network ◽  
H Index ◽  
Narx Neural Network

Abstract. Similar to the Dst index, the SYM-H index may also serve as an indicator of magnetic storm intensity, but having distinct advantage of higher time-resolution. In this study the NARX neural network has been used for the first time to predict SYM-H index from solar wind (SW) and IMF parameters. In total 73 time intervals of great storm events with IMF/SW data available from ACE satellite during 1998 to 2006 are used to establish the ANN model. Out of them, 67 are used to train the network and the other 6 samples for test. Additionally, the NARX prediction model is also validated using IMF/SW data from WIND satellite for 7 great storms during 1995–1997 and 2005, as well as for the July 2000 Bastille day storm and November 2001 superstorm using Geotail and OMNI data at 1 AU, respectively. Five interplanetary parameters of IMF Bz, By and total B components along with proton density and velocity of solar wind are used as the original external inputs of the neural network to predict the SYM-H index about one hour ahead. For the 6 test storms registered by ACE including two super-storms of min. SYM-H<−200 nT, the correlation coefficient between observed and NARX network predicted SYM-H is 0.95 as a whole, even as high as 0.95 and 0.98 with average relative variance of 13.2% and 7.4%, respectively, for the two super-storms. The prediction for the 7 storms with WIND data is also satisfactory, showing averaged correlation coefficient about 0.91 and RMSE of 14.2 nT. The newly developed NARX model shows much better capability than Elman network for SYM-H prediction, which can partly be attributed to a key feedback to the input layer from the output neuron with a suitable length (about 120 min). This feedback means that nearly real information of the ring current status is effectively directed to take part in the prediction of SYM-H index by ANN. The proper history length of the output-feedback may mainly reflect on average the characteristic time of ring current decay which involves various decay mechanisms with ion lifetimes from tens of minutes to tens of hours. The Elman network makes feedback from hidden layer to input only one step, which is of 5 min for SYM-H index in this work and thus insufficient to catch the characteristic time length.

scholarly journals Role of the magnetospheric and ionospheric currents in the generation of the equatorial scintillations during geomagnetic storms

2004 ◽  
Vol 22 (9) ◽  
pp. 3195-3202 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Z. Biktash
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Electric Fields ◽  
Ring Current ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Equatorial Ionosphere ◽  
Experimental Investigations ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Ionospheric Currents ◽  
Geomagnetic Variations ◽  
Activity Effect

Abstract. The equatorial ionosphere parameters, Kp, Dst, AU and AL indices characterized contribution of different magnetospheric and ionospheric currents to the H-component of geomagnetic field are examined to test the geomagnetic activity effect on the generation of ionospheric irregularities producing VLF scintillations. According to the results of the current statistical studies, one can predict near 70% of scintillations from Aarons' criteria using the Dst index, which mainly depicts the magnetospheric ring current field. To amplify Aarons' criteria or to propose new criteria for predicting scintillation characteristics is the question. In the present phase of the experimental investigations of electron density irregularities in the ionosphere new ways are opened up because observations in the interaction between the solar wind - magnetosphere - ionosphere during magnetic storms have progressed greatly. According to present view, the intensity of the electric fields and currents at the polar regions, as well as the magnetospheric ring current intensity, are strongly dependent on the variations of the interplanetary magnetic field. The magnetospheric ring current cannot directly penetrate the equatorial ionosphere and because of this difficulties emerge in explaining its relation to scintillation activity. On the other hand, the equatorial scintillations can be observed in the absence of the magnetospheric ring current. It is shown that in addition to Aarons' criteria for the prediction of the ionospheric scintillations, models can be used to explain the relationship between the equatorial ionospheric parameters, h'F, foF2, and the equatorial geomagnetic variations with the polar ionosphere currents and the solar wind.

scholarly journals The HIA instrument on board the Tan Ce 1 Double Star near-equatorial spacecraft and its first results

2005 ◽  
Vol 23 (8) ◽  
pp. 2757-2774 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Rème ◽  
I. Dandouras ◽  
C. Aoustin ◽  
J. M. Bosqued ◽  
J. A. Sauvaud ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Ring Current ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Double Star ◽  
Magnetospheric Substorms ◽  
Scientific Cooperation ◽  
Low Latitude ◽  
First Results ◽  
Academy Of Sciences

Abstract. On 29 December 2003, the Chinese spacecraft Tan Ce 1 (TC-1), the first component of the Double Star mission, was successfully launched within a low-latitude eccentric orbit. In the framework of the scientific cooperation between the Academy of Sciences of China and ESA, several European instruments, identical to those developed for the Cluster spacecraft, were installed on board this spacecraft. The HIA (Hot Ion Analyzer) instrument on board the TC-1 spacecraft is an ion spectrometer nearly identical to the HIA sensor of the CIS instrument on board the 4 Cluster spacecraft. This instrument has been specially adapted for TC-1. It measures the 3-D distribution functions of the ions between 5 eV/q and 32 keV/q without mass discrimination. TC-1 is like a fifth Cluster spacecraft to study the interaction of the solar wind with the magnetosphere and to study geomagnetic storms and magnetospheric substorms in the near equatorial plane. HIA was commissioned in February 2004. Due to the 2 RE higher apogee than expected, some in-flight improvements were needed in order to use HIA in the solar wind in the initial phase of the mission. Since this period HIA has obtained very good measurements in the solar wind, the magnetosheath, the dayside and nightside plasma sheet, the ring current and the radiation belts. We present here the first results in the different regions of the magnetosphere and in the solar wind. Some of them are very new and include, for example, ion dispersion structures in the bow shock and ion beams close to the magnetopause. The huge interest in the orbit of TC-1 is strongly demonstrated.

scholarly journals Influences on the radius of the auroral oval

2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (7) ◽  
pp. 2913-2924 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. E. Milan ◽  
J. Hutchinson ◽  
P. D. Boakes ◽  
B. Hubert
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Ring Current ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Auroral Oval ◽  
Substorm Onset ◽  
Polar Cap ◽  
H Index ◽  
Magnetic Perturbation

Abstract. We examine the variation in the radius of the auroral oval, as measured from auroral images gathered by the Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration (IMAGE) spacecraft, in response to solar wind inputs measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for the two year interval June 2000 to May 2002. Our main finding is that the oval radius increases when the ring current, as measured by the Sym-H index, is intensified during geomagnetic storms. We discuss our findings within the context of the expanding/contracting polar cap paradigm, in terms of a modification of substorm onset conditions by the magnetic perturbation associated with the ring current.

scholarly journals Severe geomagnetic storms and Forbush decreases: interplanetary relationships reexamined

2010 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 479-489 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. P. Kane
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Ring Current ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Solar Wind Speed ◽  
Current Effect ◽  
Severe Storms ◽  
Forbush Decreases ◽  
Considerable Contribution ◽  
Ram Pressure ◽  
Ring Current Effect

Abstract. Severe storms (Dst) and Forbush decreases (FD) during cycle 23 showed that maximum negative Dst magnitudes usually occurred almost simultaneously with the maximum negative values of the Bz component of interplanetary magnetic field B, but the maximum magnitudes of negative Dst and Bz were poorly correlated (+0.28). A parameter Bz(CP) was calculated (cumulative partial Bz) as sum of the hourly negative values of Bz from the time of start to the maximum negative value. The correlation of negative Dst maximum with Bz(CP) was higher (+0.59) as compared to that of Dst with Bz alone (+0.28). When the product of Bz with the solar wind speed V (at the hour of negative Bz maximum) was considered, the correlation of negative Dst maximum with VBz was +0.59 and with VBz(CP), 0.71. Thus, including V improved the correlations. However, ground-based Dst values have a considerable contribution from magnetopause currents (several tens of nT, even exceeding 100 nT in very severe storms). When their contribution is subtracted from Dst(nT), the residue Dst* representing true ring current effect is much better correlated with Bz and Bz(CP), but not with VBz or VBz(CP), indicating that these are unimportant parameters and the effect of V is seen only through the solar wind ram pressure causing magnetopause currents. Maximum negative Dst (or Dst*) did not occur at the same hour as maximum FD. The time evolutions of Dst and FD were very different. The correlations were almost zero. Basically, negative Dst (or Dst*) and FDs are uncorrelated, indicating altogether different mechanism.

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