A pair of new moisture-dynamic diagnostic parameters for heavy rain location

AbstractComparisons between anomaly and full-field methods have been carried out in weather analysis and forecasting over the last decade. Evidence from these studies has demonstrated the superiority of anomaly to full-field in the following four aspects: depiction of weather systems, anomaly forecasts, diagnostic parameters and model prediction. To promote the use and further discussion of the anomaly approach, this article summarizes those findings.After examining many types of weather events, anomaly weather maps show at least five advantages in weather system depiction: (1) less vagueness in visually connecting the location of an event with its associated meteorological conditions; (2) clearer and more complete depictions of vertical structures of a disturbance; (3) easier observation of time and spatial evolution of an event and its interaction or connection with other weather systems; (4) simplification of conceptual models by unifying different weather systems into one pattern; and (5) extension of model forecast length due to earlier detection of predictors. Anomaly verification is also mentioned. The anomaly forecast is useful for raising one’s awareness of potential societal impact. Combining the anomaly forecast with an ensemble is emphasized, where a societal impact index is discussed. For diagnostic parameters, two examples are given: an anomalous convective instability index for convection, and seven vorticity and divergence related parameters for heavy rain. Both showed positive contributions from the anomalous fields. For model prediction, the anomaly version of the beta-advection model consistently outperformed its full-field version in predicting typhoon tracks with clearer physical explanation. Application of anomaly global models to seasonal forecasts is also reviewed.

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Anomaly-Based Weather Analysis versus Traditional Total-Field-Based Weather Analysis for Depicting Regional Heavy Rain Events

Weather and Forecasting ◽

10.1175/waf-d-15-0074.1 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 31 (1) ◽

pp. 71-93 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Weihong Qian ◽

Ning Jiang ◽

Jun Du

Keyword(s):

Heavy Rain ◽

Total Field ◽

Structure Approach ◽

Rain Area ◽

Diagnostic Parameters ◽

Weather Events ◽

Pros And Cons ◽

Rain Events ◽

Abnormal Weather ◽

Atmospheric Variables

Abstract Although the use of anomaly fields in the forecast process has been shown to be useful and has caught forecasters’ attention, current short-range (1–3 days) weather analyses and forecasts are still predominantly total-field based. This paper systematically examines the pros and cons of anomaly- versus total-field-based approaches in weather analysis using a case from 1 July 1991 (showcase) and 41 cases from 1998 (statistics) of heavy rain events that occurred in China. The comparison is done for both basic atmospheric variables (height, temperature, wind, and humidity) and diagnostic parameters (divergence, vorticity, and potential vorticity). Generally, anomaly fields show a more enhanced and concentrated signal (pattern) directly related to surface anomalous weather events, while total fields can obscure the visualization of anomalous features due to the climatic background. The advantage is noticeable in basic atmospheric variables, but is marginal in nonconservative diagnostic parameters and is lost in conservative diagnostic parameters. Sometimes a mix of total and anomaly fields works the best; for example, in the moist vorticity when anomalous vorticity combines with total moisture, it can depict the heavy rain area the best when comparing to either the purely total or purely anomalous moist vorticity. Based on this study, it is recommended that anomaly-based weather analysis could be a valuable supplement to the commonly used total-field-based approach. Anomalies can help a forecaster to more quickly identify where an abnormal weather event might occur as well as more easily pinpoint possible meteorological causes than a total field. However, one should not use the anomaly structure approach alone to explain the underlying dynamics without a total field.

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Forecasting Occurrence of Localized Heavy Rain and Tornado

The Journal of the Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan ◽

10.1541/ieejjournal.134.604 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 134 (9) ◽

pp. 604-607

Author(s):

Shoji KAWASAKI ◽

Masaaki KOYAMA ◽

Shunsuke FUKAMI ◽

Chisa KOBAYASHI

Keyword(s):

Heavy Rain

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DISTRIBUIÇÃO ESPAÇO-TEMPORAL DOS DESASTRES HIDROMETEOROLÓGICOS NA MICRORREGIÃO PLUVIOMÉTRICAMENTE HOMOGÊNEA DO LITORAL PARAIBANO

Revista da Casa da Geografia de Sobral (RCGS) ◽

10.35701/rcgs.v21n2.534 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 21 (2) ◽

pp. 467-476

Author(s):

Wanessa Janinne Eloy Da Silva ◽

Maressa Oliveira Lopes Araújo ◽

Marcelo De Oliveira Moura

Keyword(s):

Flash Flood ◽

Temporal Distribution ◽

Heavy Rain ◽

Emergency Situations

O presente trabalho tem por objetivo analisar a distribuição espaço-temporal dos reconhecimentos de Situação de Emergência associados à dinâmica hidrometeorológica na microrregião pluviometricamente homogênea do Litoral paraibano, durante o período de 2003 a 2016. Para isso, foram utilizados dados adquiridos no site do Ministério da Integração Nacional, encontrados na página da Secretaria Nacional de Proteção e Defesa Civil, conforme reconhecimentos disponibilizados através de portarias. Como resultados principais, constatou-se um total de 29 reconhecimentos, em que 51,7% corresponde a enchentes; 20,7% a chuvas intensas; 24,2% correspondente a enxurradas e 3,4% a inundações. Considera-se que os resultados obtidos tiveram um cunho mais descritivo, necessitando assim de estudos mais avançados sobre a temática.Palavras chave: Litoral Paraibano, desastres hidrometeorológicos, situação de emergência. ABSTRACTThe present work has for objective analyze the space-temporal distribution of the emergency situations recognizements associated to the hydrometeorological dynamic on the pluviometrically homogenius microregion of the coast of Paraíba, during the period of 2003 to 2016. For that, data were used acquired from the Ministério da Integração Nacional’s site, found on the Secretaria Nacional de Proteção e Defesa Civil’s page, conform available recognizements through ordinances. As main results, a total of 29 recognizements were found, in which 51,7% corresponds to floods; 20,7% to heavy rain; 24,2% corresponding to flash flood and 3,4% to inundations. It’s considered that the obtained results have a descriptive label, needing then advanced studies about the theme.Keywords: Coast of Paraiba, hydrometeorlogical disasters, emergency situations. RESUMENEste documento tiene como objetivo analizar la distribución espacio-temporal de los reconocimientos de situaciones de emergencia com la dinâmica hidrometeorológica em la microrregión de lluvia homogénea de la costa paraibana, de 2003 a 2016. Para este propósito, se utilizaron los datos adquiridos del sitio web del Ministerio de Salud. Integración nacional, que se encuentra en la página de la Secretaría Nacional de Protección y Defensa Civil, como agradecimientos disponibles a través de ordenanzas. Como resultados principales, hubo un total de 29 reconocimientos, de los cuales el 51.7% correspondió a inundaciones; 20.7% a fuertes lluvias; 24.2% correspondientes a enxurradas y 3.4% a inundaciones. Se considera que los resultados obtenidos tuvieron una naturaleza más descriptiva, por lo que requirieron estúdios más avanzados sobre el tema.Palabras clave: Costa de Paraiba, desastres hidrometeorológicos, situación de emergencia.

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