DISTRIBUIÇÃO ESPAÇO-TEMPORAL DOS DESASTRES HIDROMETEOROLÓGICOS NA MICRORREGIÃO PLUVIOMÉTRICAMENTE HOMOGÊNEA DO LITORAL PARAIBANO

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 467-476
Author(s):  
Wanessa Janinne Eloy Da Silva ◽  
Maressa Oliveira Lopes Araújo ◽  
Marcelo De Oliveira Moura
Keyword(s):  
Flash Flood ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Emergency Situations

O presente trabalho tem por objetivo analisar a distribuição espaço-temporal dos reconhecimentos de Situação de Emergência associados à dinâmica hidrometeorológica na microrregião pluviometricamente homogênea do Litoral paraibano, durante o período de 2003 a 2016. Para isso, foram utilizados dados adquiridos no site do Ministério da Integração Nacional, encontrados na página da Secretaria Nacional de Proteção e Defesa Civil, conforme reconhecimentos disponibilizados através de portarias. Como resultados principais, constatou-se um total de 29 reconhecimentos, em que 51,7% corresponde a enchentes; 20,7% a chuvas intensas; 24,2% correspondente a enxurradas e 3,4% a inundações. Considera-se que os resultados obtidos tiveram um cunho mais descritivo, necessitando assim de estudos mais avançados sobre a temática.Palavras chave: Litoral Paraibano, desastres hidrometeorológicos, situação de emergência. ABSTRACTThe present work has for objective analyze the space-temporal distribution of the emergency situations recognizements associated to the hydrometeorological dynamic on the pluviometrically homogenius microregion of the coast of Paraíba, during the period of 2003 to 2016. For that, data were used acquired from the Ministério da Integração Nacional’s site, found on the Secretaria Nacional de Proteção e Defesa Civil’s page, conform available recognizements through ordinances. As main results, a total of 29 recognizements were found, in which 51,7% corresponds to floods; 20,7% to heavy rain; 24,2% corresponding to flash flood and 3,4% to inundations. It’s considered that the obtained results have a descriptive label, needing then advanced studies about the theme.Keywords: Coast of Paraiba, hydrometeorlogical disasters, emergency situations. RESUMENEste documento tiene como objetivo analizar la distribución espacio-temporal de los reconocimientos de situaciones de emergencia com la dinâmica hidrometeorológica em la microrregión de lluvia homogénea de la costa paraibana, de 2003 a 2016. Para este propósito, se utilizaron los datos adquiridos del sitio web del Ministerio de Salud. Integración nacional, que se encuentra en la página de la Secretaría Nacional de Protección y Defensa Civil, como agradecimientos disponibles a través de ordenanzas. Como resultados principales, hubo un total de 29 reconocimientos, de los cuales el 51.7% correspondió a inundaciones; 20.7% a fuertes lluvias; 24.2% correspondientes a enxurradas y 3.4% a inundaciones. Se considera que los resultados obtenidos tuvieron una naturaleza más descriptiva, por lo que requirieron estúdios más avanzados sobre el tema.Palabras clave: Costa de Paraiba, desastres hidrometeorológicos, situación de emergencia.

scholarly journals Flash Flood and Extreme Rainfall Forecast through One-Way Coupling of WRF-SMAP Models: Natural Hazards in Rio de Janeiro State

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 834
Author(s):  
Priscila da Cunha Luz Barcellos ◽  
Marcio Cataldi
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Rio De Janeiro ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Streamflow Forecast ◽  
Janeiro State

Flash floods and extreme rains are destructive phenomena and difficult to forecast. In 2011, the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro state suffered one of the largest natural hazards in Brazil, affecting more than 300,000 people, leaving more than 900 dead. This article simulates this natural hazard through Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) and streamflow forecast ensemble, using 18 combinations of parameterizations between cumulus, microphysics, surface layer, planetary boundary layer, land surface and lateral contour conditions of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, coupling to the Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure (SMAP) hydrological model, seeking to find the best set of parametrizations for the forecasting of extreme events in the region. The results showed rainfall and streamflow forecast were underestimated by the models, reaching an error of 57.4% to QPF and 24.6% error to streamflow, and part of these errors are related to the lack of skill of the atmospheric model in predicting the intensity and the spatial-temporal distribution of rainfall. These results bring to light the limitations of numerical weather prediction, possibly due to the lack of initiatives involving the adaptation of empirical constants, intrinsic in the parametrization models, to the specific atmospheric conditions of each region of the country.

Ensemble-Based Analysis of the May 2010 Extreme Rainfall in Tennessee and Kentucky

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (1) ◽  
pp. 222-239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samantha L. Lynch ◽  
Russ S. Schumacher
Keyword(s):  
Mississippi River ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Event ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Surface Cyclone ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Surrounding Areas

Abstract From 1 to 3 May 2010, persistent heavy rainfall occurred in the Ohio and Mississippi River valleys due to two successive quasi-stationary mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), with locations in central Tennessee accumulating more than 483 mm of rain, and the city of Nashville experiencing a historic flash flood. This study uses operational global ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to diagnose atmospheric processes and assess forecast uncertainty in this event. Several ensemble analysis methods are used to examine the processes that led to the development and maintenance of this precipitation system. Differences between ensemble members that correctly predicted heavy precipitation and those that did not were determined, in order to pinpoint the processes that were favorable or detrimental to the system's development. Statistical analysis was used to determine how synoptic-scale flows were correlated to 5-day area-averaged precipitation. The precipitation throughout Nashville and the surrounding areas occurred ahead of an upper-level trough located over the central United States. The distribution of precipitation was found to be closely related to the strength of this trough and an associated surface cyclone. In particular, when the upper-level trough was elongated, the surface cyclone remained weaker with a narrower low-level jet from the south. This caused the plume of moisture from the Caribbean Sea to be concentrated over Tennessee and Kentucky, where, in conjunction with focused ascent, heavy rain fell. Relatively small differences in the wind and pressure fields led to important differences in the precipitation forecasts and highlighted some of the uncertainties associated with predicting this extreme rainfall event.

scholarly journals Heavy rain prediction using deterministic and probabilistic models – the flash flood cases of 11–13 October 2005 in Catalonia (NE Spain)

2007 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
pp. 121-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Barrera ◽  
V. Altava-Ortiz ◽  
M. C. Llasat ◽  
M. Barnolas
Keyword(s):  
Probabilistic Models ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Event ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Meteorological Features ◽  
Ne Spain

Abstract. Between the 11 and 13 October 2005 several flash floods were produced along the coast of Catalonia (NE Spain) due to a significant heavy rainfall event. Maximum rainfall achieved values up to 250 mm in 24 h. The total amount recorded during the event in some places was close to 350 mm. Barcelona city was also in the affected area where high rainfall intensities were registered, but just a few small floods occurred, thanks to the efficient urban drainage system of the city. Two forecasting methods have been applied in order to evaluate their capability of prediction regarding extreme events: the deterministic MM5 model and a probabilistic model based on the analogous method. The MM5 simulation allows analysing accurately the main meteorological features with a high spatial resolution (2 km), like the formation of some convergence lines over the region that partially explains the maximum precipitation location during the event. On the other hand, the analogous technique shows a good agreement among highest probability values and real affected areas, although a larger pluviometric rainfall database would be needed to improve the results. The comparison between the observed precipitation and from both QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) methods shows that the analogous technique tends to underestimate the rainfall values and the MM5 simulation tends to overestimate them.

scholarly journals Ensemble Flash Flood Predictions Using a High-Resolution Nationwide Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model: Case Study of the Heavy Rain Event of July 2018 and Typhoon Hagibis in 2019

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takahiro Sayama ◽  
Masafumi Yamada ◽  
Yoshito Sugawara ◽  
Dai Yamazaki
Keyword(s):  
Lead Time ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Rain Event ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Heavy Rain Event ◽  
Peak Runoff ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Runoff Model

Abstract The heavy rain event of July 2018 and Typhoon Hagibis in October 2019 caused severe flash flood disasters in numerous parts of western and eastern Japan. Flash floods need to be predicted over a wide range with long forecasting lead time for effective evacuation. The predictability of flash floods caused by the two extreme events are investigated by using a high-resolution (~150 m) nationwide distributed rainfall-runoff model forced by ensemble precipitation forecasts with 39-h lead time. Results of the deterministic simulation at nowcasting mode with radar and gauge composite rainfall could reasonably simulate the storm runoff hydrographs at many dam reservoirs over western Japan for the case of heavy rainfall in 2018 (F18) with the default parameter setting. For the case of Typhoon Hagibis in 2019 (T19), a similar performance was obtained by incorporating unsaturated flow effect in the model applied to Kanto region. The performance of the ensemble forecast was evaluated based on the bias ratios and the relative operating characteristic curves, which suggested the higher predictability in peak runoff for T19. For the F18, the uncertainty arises due to the difficulty in accurately forecasting the storm positions by the frontal zone; as a result, the actual distribution of the peak runoff could not be well forecasted. Overall, this study showed that the predictability of flash floods was different between the two extreme events. The ensemble spreads contain quantitative information of predictive uncertainty, which can be utilized for the decision making of emergency responses against flash floods.

scholarly journals Flash floods in Catalonia: a recurrent situation

2010 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 105-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. C. Llasat ◽  
M. Llasat-Botija ◽  
A. Rodriguez ◽  
S. Lindbergh
Keyword(s):  
Social Impact ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
The Social ◽  
Flood Effects ◽  
Data Flood ◽  
Insurance Data

Abstract. This work focuses on the analysis and characterization of the flash flood events occurring during summer in Catalonia. To this aim, a database with information about the social impact produced by all flood events recorded in Catalonia between 1982 and 2007 has been built. The social impact was obtained systematically on the basis of news press data and, occasionally, on the basis of insurance data. Flood events have been classified into ordinary, extraordinary and catastrophic floods, following the proposal of Llasat et al.~(2005). However, bearing in mind flash flood effects, some new categories concerning casualties and car damage have also been introduced. The spatial and temporal distribution of these flood events has been analyzed and, in an effort to better estimate the social impact and vulnerability, some indicators have been defined and analyzed for a specific region. These indicators allow an analysis of spacial and temporal trends as well as characterization of the events. Results show a flash-flood increase in summer and early autumn, mainly due to inter-annual and intra-annual changes in population density.

scholarly journals Utilization of estimated rainfall as an early warning system before flash flood event

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 73
Author(s):  
Fara Diva Claudia ◽  
Cecylia Putri Mawarni ◽  
Kadek Krisna Yulianti ◽  
Paulus Agus Winarso
Keyword(s):  
Flash Flood ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Atmospheric Dynamics ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Rainfall Estimation ◽  
Wrf Modeling ◽  
The Impact

<p class="Abstract">On October 10, 2018 there has been extreme weather in the form of heavy rain accompanied by lightning in Tanah Datar District, West Sumatra. This extreme weather caused flash floods and landslides that killed many people. Therefore, by using remote sensing data in the form of radar and satellite as well as WRF modeling (Weather Research and Forecasting) the authors conducted analysis of heavy rainfall events to determine the estimated rainfall and atmospheric dynamics during the occurrence of flash floods and landslides. WRF modeling is used to determine the condition of atmospheric lability. For the calculation of rainfall estimation, the method used is the Convective Stratiform Technique (CST) method that utilizes satellite data and the Z-R relation selection method that utilizes radar data. Then the calculation results from each method are verified using observation data. Relative bias shows the CST method and the selection of Z-R relations tend to be overestimate, but has a very high correlation value with observation data. Information on rainfall estimation and atmospheric dynamics is expected to be used to provide early warnings aimed at minimizing losses from the impact of disasters.</p>

scholarly journals Features of weather types involving heavy rainfall along the southern Spanish Mediterranean

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.M. Senciales-González ◽  
J.D. Ruiz-Sinoga
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Weather Types ◽  
Seasonal Incidence ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Synoptic Conditions ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

Heavy rainfall events in the Mediterranean can be of high intensity, commonly exceeding 100 mm day-1, and have irregular spatio-temporal distribution. Such events can have significant impacts both on soils and human structures. The aim of this paper is to highlight a systematic comparison of synoptic conditions with heavy rainfall events in Mediterranean Southern Spain, assessing the weather types responsible for meteorological risk in specific locations of this mountainous region. To do this, we analyzed the maximum intensity of rainfall in observational periods ranging from 10 min to 24 h using a database from 132 rain gauge stations across the study area since 1943; then, the heavy rain has been associated with the weather type which triggers it. This analysis identified a pattern of heavy rainfall which differs from that previously reported in the Mediterranean area. Thus, in this research, the maximum number of heavy rainfall events uses to come from a dominant pattern of low pressures associated to front systems and East-Northeast winds; but the maximum volumes use to be associated to Cold Drops and the same winds; in addition, there are differences throughout the territory, showing several patterns and seasonal incidence when analyzing sub-zones, which may be related with different erosive conditions according to its position with respect to Atlantic or Mediterranean sea, and the entity of its relief.

scholarly journals The Spatiotemporal Distribution of Flash Floods and Analysis of Partition Driving Forces in Yunnan Province

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2926 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junnan Xiong ◽  
Chongchong Ye ◽  
Weiming Cheng ◽  
Liang Guo ◽  
Chenghu Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analysis ◽  
Flash Floods

Flash floods are one of the most serious natural disasters, and have a significant impact on economic development. In this study, we employed the spatiotemporal analysis method to measure the spatial–temporal distribution of flash floods and examined the relationship between flash floods and driving factors in different subregions of landcover. Furthermore, we analyzed the response of flash floods on the economic development by sensitivity analysis. The results indicated that the number of flash floods occurring annually increased gradually from 1949 to 2015, and regions with a high quantity of flash floods were concentrated in Zhaotong, Qujing, Kunming, Yuxi, Chuxiong, Dali, and Baoshan. Specifically, precipitation and elevation had a more significant effect on flash floods in the settlement than in other subregions, with a high r (Pearson’s correlation coefficient) value of 0.675, 0.674, 0.593, 0.519, and 0.395 for the 10 min precipitation in 20-year return period, elevation, 60 min precipitation in 20-year return period, 24 h precipitation in 20-year return period, and 6 h precipitation in 20-year return period, respectively. The sensitivity analysis showed that the Kunming had the highest sensitivity (S = 21.86) during 2000–2005. Based on the research results, we should focus on heavy precipitation events for flash flood prevention and forecasting in the short term; but human activities and ecosystem vulnerability should be controlled over the long term.

scholarly journals A database on flash flood events in Campania, southern Italy, with an evaluation of their spatial and temporal distribution

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. 2485-2500 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carmela Vennari ◽  
Mario Parise ◽  
Nicoletta Santangelo ◽  
Antonio Santo
Keyword(s):  
Southern Italy ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
General Structure ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Intermittent Flow ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Campania Region ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Temporal Occurrence

Abstract. This study presents an historical database of flash flood events in the Campania region of southern Italy. The study focuses on small catchments characterized by intermittent flow, generally occurring during and after heavy rainstorms, which can be hydrologically defined as small Mediterranean catchments. As the outlet zones of these catchments (consisting mainly of alluvial fans or fan deltas) are highly urbanized in Campania, the population living in the delivery areas is exposed to high risk. Detailed scrutiny and critical analysis of the existing literature, and of the data inventory available, allowed us to build a robust database consisting of about 500 events from 1540 to 2015, which is continuously updated. Since this study is the first step of a longer project to perform a hazard analysis, information about time and site of occurrence is known for all events. As for the hazard analysis envisaged, collecting information about past events could provide information on future events, in terms of damage and also spatial and temporal occurrence. After introducing the issue of flash floods in Italy we then describe the geological and geomorphological settings of the study area. The database is then presented, illustrating the methodology used in collecting information and its general structure. The collected data are then discussed and the statistical data analysis presented.

scholarly journals Predictability of prototype flash flood events in the Western Mediterranean under uncertainties of the precursor upper-level disturbance: the HYDROPTIMET case studies

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 505-525 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Romero ◽  
A. Martín ◽  
V. Homar ◽  
S. Alonso ◽  
C. Ramis
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Southern France ◽  
The Alps ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Level Disturbance

Abstract. The HYDROPTIMET case studies (9–10 June 2000 Catalogne, 8–9 September 2002 Cévennes and 24–26 November 2002 Piémont) appear to encompass a sort of prototype flash-flood situations in the western Mediterranean attending to the relevant synoptic and mesoscale signatures identified on the meteorological charts. In Catalogne, the convective event was driven by a low-pressure system of relatively small dimensions developed over the mediterranean coast of Spain that moved into southern France. For Cévennes, the main circulation pattern was a synoptic-scale Atlantic low which induced a persistent southerly low-level jet (LLJ) over the western Mediterranean, strengthened by the Alps along its western flank, which guaranteed continuous moisture supply towards southern France where the long-lived, quasistationary convective system developed. The long Piémont episode, very representative of the most severe alpine flash flood events, shares some similarities with the Cévennes situation during its first stage in that it was controlled by a southerly moist LLJ associated with a large-scale disturbance located to the west. However, these circulation features were transient aspects and during the second half of the episode the situation was dominated by a cyclogenesis process over the Mediterranean which gave place to a mesoscale-size depression at surface that acted to force new heavy rain over the slopes of the Alps and maritime areas. That is, the Piémont episode can be catalogued as of mixed type with regard to the responsible surface disturbance, evolving from a large-scale pattern with remote action (like Cévennes) to a mesoscale pattern with local action (like Catalogne). A prominent mid-tropospheric trough or cut-off low can be identified in all events prior and during the period of heavy rain, which clearly served as the precursor agent for the onset of the flash-flood conditions and the cyclogenesis at low-levels. Being aware of the uncertainty in the representation of the upper-level disturbance and the necessity to cope with it within the operational context when attempting to issue short to mid-range numerical weather predictions of these high impact weather events, a systematic exploration of the predictability of the three selected case studies subject to uncertainties in the representation of the upper-level precursor disturbance is carried out in this paper. The study is based on an ensemble of mesoscale numerical simulations of each event with the MM5 non-hydrostatic model after perturbing in a systematic way the upper-level disturbance, in the sense of displacing slightly this disturbance upstream/downstream along the zonal direction and intensifying/weakening its amplitude. These perturbations are guided by a previous application of the MM5-adjoint model, which consistently shows high sensitivities of the dynamical control of the heavy rain to the flow configuration about the upper-level disturbance on the day before, thus confirming the precursor characteristics of this agent. The perturbations are introduced to the initial conditions by applying a potential vorticity (PV) inversion procedure to the positive PV anomaly associated with the upper-level disturbance, and then using the inverted fields (wind, temperature and geopotential) to modify under a physically consistent balance the model initial fields. The results generally show that the events dominated by mesoscale low-level disturbances (Catalogne and last stage of the Piémont episode) are very sensitive to the initial uncertainties, such that the heavy rain location and magnitude are in some of the experiments strongly changed in response to the "forecast errors" of the cyclone trajectory, intensity, shape and translational speed. In contrast, the other situations (Cévennes and initial stage of the Piémont episode), dominated by a larger scale system wich basically acts to guarantee the establishment and persistence of the southerly LLJ towards the southern France-north Italy orography, exhibit much higher predictability. That is, the slight modifications in the LLJ direction and intensity encompassed by the ensemble of perturbed forecasts are less critical with respect to the heavy precipitation potential and affected area.

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