What Forms the Trajectory of Social Reforms? The Roles of Decision Rules and Communication under Epistemic Uncertainty

Author(s):  
Taiga Tsubota ◽  
Masahide Horita
2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin D. Carlson ◽  
Mary L. Connerley ◽  
Arlise P. McKinney ◽  
Ross L. Mecham

2012 ◽  
pp. 152-155
Author(s):  
A. Tulokhonov

The article gives an assessment of P. A. Stolypin's political, economic and social reforms, their significance for the contemporary development of Russia, including the eastern territories. The author believes that the basic principles of the reform system proposed by Stolypin are relevant today and can become fundamental for improving the country's competitiveness.


Author(s):  
Michael Laver ◽  
Ernest Sergenti

This chapter extends the survival-of-the-fittest evolutionary environment to consider the possibility that new political parties, when they first come into existence, do not pick decision rules at random but instead choose rules that have a track record of past success. This is done by adding replicator-mutator dynamics to the model, according to which the probability that each rule is selected by a new party is an evolving but noisy function of that rule's past performance. Estimating characteristic outputs when this type of positive feedback enters the dynamic model creates new methodological challenges. The simulation results show that it is very rare for one decision rule to drive out all others over the long run. While the diversity of decision rules used by party leaders is drastically reduced with such positive feedback in the party system, and while some particular decision rule is typically prominent over a certain period of time, party systems in which party leaders use different decision rules are sustained over substantial periods.


Author(s):  
Michael Laver ◽  
Ernest Sergenti

This chapter attempts to develop more realistic and interesting models in which the set of competing parties is a completely endogenous output of the process of party competition. It also seeks to model party competition when different party leaders use different decision rules in the same setting by building on an approach pioneered in a different context by Robert Axelrod. This involves long-running computer “tournaments” that allow investigation of the performance and “robustness” of decision rules in an environment where any politician using any rule may encounter an opponent using either the same decision rule or some quite different rule. The chapter is most interested in how a decision rule performs against anything the competitive environment might throw against it, including agents using decision rules that are difficult to anticipate and/or comprehend.


ASCEND 2020 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Chen ◽  
Brian Gardner ◽  
Paul T. Grogan ◽  
Koki Ho
Keyword(s):  

2020 ◽  
Vol 92 (6) ◽  
pp. 51-58
Author(s):  
S.A. SOLOVYEV ◽  

The article describes a method for reliability (probability of non-failure) analysis of structural elements based on p-boxes. An algorithm for constructing two p-blocks is shown. First p-box is used in the absence of information about the probability distribution shape of a random variable. Second p-box is used for a certain probability distribution function but with inaccurate (interval) function parameters. The algorithm for reliability analysis is presented on a numerical example of the reliability analysis for a flexural wooden beam by wood strength criterion. The result of the reliability analysis is an interval of the non-failure probability boundaries. Recommendations are given for narrowing the reliability boundaries which can reduce epistemic uncertainty. On the basis of the proposed approach, particular methods for reliability analysis for any structural elements can be developed. Design equations are given for a comprehensive assessment of the structural element reliability as a system taking into account all the criteria of limit states.


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