Endogenous Parties, Interaction of Different Decision Rules

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Laver ◽  
Ernest Sergenti
Keyword(s):  
Decision Rule ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Party Competition ◽  
Competitive Environment ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Robert Axelrod

This chapter attempts to develop more realistic and interesting models in which the set of competing parties is a completely endogenous output of the process of party competition. It also seeks to model party competition when different party leaders use different decision rules in the same setting by building on an approach pioneered in a different context by Robert Axelrod. This involves long-running computer “tournaments” that allow investigation of the performance and “robustness” of decision rules in an environment where any politician using any rule may encounter an opponent using either the same decision rule or some quite different rule. The chapter is most interested in how a decision rule performs against anything the competitive environment might throw against it, including agents using decision rules that are difficult to anticipate and/or comprehend.

The Evolutionary Dynamics of Decision Rule Selection

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Laver ◽  
Ernest Sergenti
Keyword(s):  
Decision Rule ◽  
Positive Feedback ◽  
Party System ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Track Record ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Survival Of The Fittest

This chapter extends the survival-of-the-fittest evolutionary environment to consider the possibility that new political parties, when they first come into existence, do not pick decision rules at random but instead choose rules that have a track record of past success. This is done by adding replicator-mutator dynamics to the model, according to which the probability that each rule is selected by a new party is an evolving but noisy function of that rule's past performance. Estimating characteristic outputs when this type of positive feedback enters the dynamic model creates new methodological challenges. The simulation results show that it is very rare for one decision rule to drive out all others over the long run. While the diversity of decision rules used by party leaders is drastically reduced with such positive feedback in the party system, and while some particular decision rule is typically prominent over a certain period of time, party systems in which party leaders use different decision rules are sustained over substantial periods.

A Baseline ABM of Party Competition

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Laver ◽  
Ernest Sergenti
Keyword(s):  
Decision Rules ◽  
Party Competition ◽  
Baseline Model ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Personal Ideal ◽  
Ideal Policy ◽  
Party Policy Positions ◽  
The Ideal

This chapter specifies the “baseline” agent-based model of dynamic multiparty competition, which derives from an article published by (Laver 2005). This assumes that each voter has in mind some personal ideal “package” of policy positions and supports the political party that offers the policy package closest to this. The dynamic system at the heart of the model is as follows: voters support their “closest” party in this sense; party leaders adapt the policy packages they offer in light of the revealed pattern of voter support; voters reconsider which party they support in light of the revealed pattern of party policy packages; and this process continues forever. This recursive model describes policy-based party competition as a complex system, and the baseline model specifies three decision rules that party leaders may deploy when they choose party policy positions in such a setting. These rules are Sticker (always keep the same position), Aggregator (move policy to the centroid of the ideal policy positions of your current supporters), and Hunter (if your last policy move increased your support, make another move in the same direction; or else change heading and move in a different direction).

The AfD as a ‚Leaderless’ Right-Wing Populist Party. How the Leadership-Structure Dilemma Left an Imprint on the Party’s Leadership

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-60
Author(s):  
Gregor Zons ◽  
Anna Halstenbach
Keyword(s):  
Party Competition ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Party Leadership ◽  
New Parties ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Leadership Structure ◽  
Consolidation Phase ◽  
Leadership Turnover ◽  
Party Institutionalization

AbstractDespite its right-wing populist character, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) shows no signs of a strong party leadership. We ascribe this state of the party leadership to the AfD’s institutionalization as a new party and show how organizational features interact with the skill set and goals of the party leaders. At the party level, we, firstly, outline the organizational change at the top of the party and the party leader selection rules. Secondly, we depict leadership turnover and competitiveness. At the leader level, we investigate the failure of Bernd Lucke, the key founder and one of the initial party leaders, as a manifestation of the leadership-structure dilemma of new parties. Embedded in a leadership team and faced with a growing extra-parliamentary party structure, Lucke tried to secure his initial autonomy and position of power by an attempt to become the sole party leader. His subsequent exit from the AfD laid bare the fact that he was not able to manage the challenges of the organizational consolidation phase, in which a new party needs a coordinator and consensus-builder. The AfD itself has proven its organizational autonomy from its initial leaders and its distaste for a strong and centralized party leadership. The barriers for the latter remain in place while, at the same time, the party institutionalization is still on-going, especially regarding its place in the German party competition.

scholarly journals Rats show direct reciprocity when interacting with multiple partners

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina Kettler ◽  
Manon K. Schweinfurth ◽  
Michael Taborsky
Keyword(s):  
Time Delay ◽  
Decision Rule ◽  
Prisoner's Dilemma ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Prisoner’S Dilemma ◽  
Cognitive Demands ◽  
Multiple Partners ◽  
Norway Rats

AbstractDirect reciprocity, where individuals apply the decision rule ‘help someone who has helped you’, is believed to be rare in non-human animals due to its high cognitive demands. Especially if previous encounters with several partners need to be correctly remembered, animals might either stop reciprocating favours previously received from an individual, or switch to the simpler generalized reciprocity mechanism. Here we tested the decision rules Norway rats apply when interacting with multiple partners before being able to return received help. In a sequential prisoner’s dilemma situation, focal subjects encountered four different partners that were either helpful or not, on four consecutive days. On the fifth day, the focal subject was paired with one of the previous four partners and given the opportunity to provide it with food. The focal rats returned received help by closely matching the quantity of help their partner had previously provided, independently of the time delay between received and given help, and independently of the ultimate interaction preceding the test. This shows that direct reciprocity is not limited to dyadic situations in Norway rats, suggesting that cognitive demands involved in applying the required decision rules can be met by non-human animals even when they interact with multiple partners differing in helping propensity.

scholarly journals Avoidance, ambiguity, alternation: Position blurring strategies in multidimensional party competition

2021 ◽  
pp. 146511652110274
Author(s):  
Jelle Koedam
Keyword(s):  
European Integration ◽  
Strategic Behavior ◽  
Party Competition ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Political Accountability ◽  
Democratic Representation ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Party Strategy ◽  
Political Outcome ◽  
Western European

In a multidimensional environment, parties may have compelling incentives to obscure their preferences on select issues. This study contributes to a growing literature on position blurring by demonstrating how party leaders purposively create uncertainty about where their party stands on the issue of European integration. By doing so, it theoretically and empirically disentangles the cause of position blurring—parties’ strategic behavior—from its intended political outcome. The analysis of survey and manifesto data across 14 Western European countries (1999–2019) confirms that three distinct strategies—avoidance, ambiguity, and alternation—all increase expert uncertainty about a party's position. This finding is then unpacked by examining for whom avoidance is particularly effective. This study has important implications for our understanding of party strategy, democratic representation, and political accountability.

Decision rules, escalation of commitment and sensitivity to framing in group decision-making

2016 ◽  
Vol 54 (7) ◽  
pp. 1649-1668 ◽  
Author(s):  
Petru Lucian Curseu ◽  
Sandra G. L. Schruijer ◽  
Oana Catalina Fodor
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Rule ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Escalation Of Commitment ◽  
Group Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Collaborative Decision

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test the influence of collaborative and consultative decision rules on groups’ sensitivity to framing effect (FE) and escalation of commitment (EOC). Design/methodology/approach – In an experimental study (using a sample of 233 professionals with project management experience), the authors test the effects of collaborative and consultative decision rules on groups’ sensitivity to EOC and FE. The authors use four group decision-making tasks to evaluate decision consistency across gain/loss framed decision situations and six decision tasks to evaluate EOC for money as well as time as resources previously invested in the initial decisions. Findings – The results show that the collaborative decision rule increases sensitivity to EOC when financial resources are involved and decreases sensitivity to EOC when time is of essence. Moreover, the authors show that the collaborative decision rule decreases sensitivity to FE in group decision making. Research limitations/implications – The results have important implications for group rationality as an emergent group level competence by extending the insights concerning the impact of decision rules on emergent group level cognitive competencies. Due to the experimental nature of the design, the authors can probe the causal relations between the investigated variables, yet the authors cannot generalize the results to other settings. Practical implications – Managers can use the insights of this study in order to optimize the functioning of decision-making groups and to reduce their sensitivity to FEs and EOC. Originality/value – The study extends the research on group rationality and it is one of the few experimental attempts used to understand the role of decision rules on emergent group level rationality.

scholarly journals Interpolation of multidimensional signals using the reduction of the dimension of parametric spaces of decision rules

2019 ◽  
pp. 31-40
Author(s):  
M V Gashnikov
Keyword(s):  
Decision Rule ◽  
Optimization Problem ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Compression Method ◽  
Parametric Space ◽  
Archive File ◽  
Multidimensional Signals ◽  
Reduced Dimension ◽  
Hierarchical Compression ◽  
Adaptive Interpolator

In this paper, we consider the interpolation of multidimensional signals problem. We develop adaptive interpolators that select the most appropriate interpolating function at each signal point. Parameterized decision rule selects the interpolating function based on local features at each signal point. We optimize the adaptive interpolator in the parameter space of this decision rule. For solving this optimization problem, we reduce the dimension of the parametric space of the decision rule. Dimension reduction is based on the parameterization of the ratio between local differences at each signal point. Then we optimize the adaptive interpolator in parametric space of reduced dimension. Computational experiments to investigate the effectiveness of an adaptive interpolator are conducted using real-world multidimensional signals. The proposed adaptive interpolator used as a part of the hierarchical compression method showed a gain of up to 51% in the size of the archive file compared to the smoothing interpolator.

Genetically Modified Crops

2021 ◽  
pp. 112-133
Author(s):  
Alasdair R. Young
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Member State ◽  
Environmental Impacts ◽  
Decision Rule ◽  
Genetically Modified ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Genetically Modified Crops ◽  
The United States ◽  
State Governments ◽  
The Eu

This chapter presents the EU’s responses with respect to three closely related policies: the approval of genetically modified (GM) crops for sale and (separately) for cultivation and efforts to lift member state bans on EU-approved GM varieties. These most similar cases differ in outcome; with the EU resuming approvals for sale (a change sufficient to placate Argentina and Canada, but not the United States), but not for cultivation and failing to address member state bans despite very permissive decision rules. In these cases, no tariffs were threatened and there was no exporter mobilization. Commission trade officials did push to accelerate approvals. The Commission, which was more favorably disposed toward biotechnology than most of the member states, was able, with the help of very a permissive decision rule, to overcome opposition to approvals for sale, but not for cultivation, reflecting greater concern among regulators about the environmental impacts of GM cultivation than about the safety of GM varieties. The member state governments also balked at forcing their peers to change their policies. There is little evidence that the WTO’s adverse ruling affected any of the protagonists’ preferences.

scholarly journals Using Accelerometers in Youth Physical Activity Studies: A Review of Methods

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 437-450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelli L. Cain ◽  
James F. Sallis ◽  
Terry L. Conway ◽  
Delfien Van Dyck ◽  
Lynn Calhoon
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Decision Rule ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Moderate Intensity ◽  
Accelerometer Data ◽  
Cut Points ◽  
Moderate Intensity Physical Activity ◽  
Youth Physical Activity ◽  
Intensity Physical Activity ◽  
Over Time

Background:In 2005, investigators convened by the National Cancer Institute recommended development of standardized protocols for accelerometer use and reporting decision rules in articles. A literature review was conducted to document accelerometer methods and decision rule reporting in youth physical activity articles from 2005−2010.Methods:Nine electronic databases identified 273 articles that measured physical activity and/or sedentary behavior using the most-used brand of accelerometer (ActiGraph). Six key methods were summarized by age group (preschool, children, and adolescents) and trends over time were examined.Results:Studies using accelerometers more than doubled from 2005−2010. Methods included 2 ActiGraph models, 6 epoch lengths, 6 nonwear definitions, 13 valid day definitions, 8 minimum wearing day thresholds, 12 moderate-intensity physical activity cut points, and 11 sedentary cut points. Child studies showed the most variation in methods and a trend toward more variability in cut points over time. Decision rule reporting improved, but only 54% of papers reported on all methods.Conclusion:The increasing diversity of methods used to process and score accelerometer data for youth precludes comparison of results across studies. Decision rule reporting is inconsistent, and trends indicate declining standardization of methods. A methodological research agenda and consensus process are proposed.

scholarly journals Party Competition and Emotive Rhetoric

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (6) ◽  
pp. 811-837 ◽  
Author(s):  
Spyros Kosmidis ◽  
Sara B. Hobolt ◽  
Eamonn Molloy ◽  
Stephen Whitefield
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Positive Affect ◽  
Party Competition ◽  
Public Preferences ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Party Manifestos ◽  
State Of The Union ◽  
The Way

When do parties use emotive rhetoric to appeal to voters? In this article, we argue that politicians are more likely to employ positive affect (valence) in their rhetoric to appeal to voters when parties are not ideologically distinct and when there is uncertainty about public preferences. To test these propositions, our article uses well-established psycholinguistic affect dictionaries to generate scores from three time series of political text: British party manifestos (1900-2015) and annual party leaders’ speeches (1977-2014) as well as U.S. Presidents’ State of the Union addresses (1880-2016). Our findings corroborate our expectations and have important implications for the study of party competition by illuminating the role of valence in the way politicians communicate their policies.

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