scholarly journals The Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake: Will emergency managers be willing and able to report to work?

2020 ◽  
Vol 103 (1) ◽  
pp. 659-683
Author(s):  
Zachary D. Swick ◽  
Elizabeth A. Baker ◽  
Michael Elliott ◽  
Alan Zelicoff
2017 ◽  
Vol 392 ◽  
pp. 30-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander R. Simms ◽  
Regina DeWitt ◽  
Julie Zurbuchen ◽  
Patrick Vaughan

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 1261-1287 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nasser A. Marafi ◽  
Marc O. Eberhard ◽  
Jeffrey W. Berman ◽  
Erin A. Wirth ◽  
Arthur D. Frankel

Ground motions have been simulated for a magnitude 9 (M9) Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake, which will affect the Puget Lowland region, including cities underlain by the Seattle, Everett, and Tacoma sedimentary basins. The current national seismic maps do not account for the effects of these basins on the risk-targeted Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCER). The simulated motions for Seattle had large spectral accelerations (at a period of 2 s, 43% of simulated M9 motions exceeded the MCER), damaging spectral shapes (particularly at periods near 1 s), and long durations (5%–95% significant durations near 110 s). For periods of 1 s or longer, the resulting deformation demands and collapse likelihood for four sets of single-degree-of-freedom systems exceeded the corresponding values for motions consistent with the conditional mean spectra at the MCER intensity (MCER). The regional variation of damage was estimated by combining probabilistic characterizations of the seismic resistance of structures and of the effective spectral acceleration, Sa,eff, which accounts for the effects of spectral acceleration, spectral shape, and ground-motion duration. For high-strength, low-ductility systems located above deep basins ( Z2.5 > 6 km), the likelihood of collapse during an M9 earthquake averaged 13% and 18% at 1.0 s and 2.0 s periods, respectively. For low-strength, high-ductility systems, the corresponding likelihoods of collapse averaged 18% and 7%.


2020 ◽  
Vol 146 (2) ◽  
pp. 04019201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nasser A. Marafi ◽  
Andrew J. Makdisi ◽  
Marc O. Eberhard ◽  
Jeffrey W. Berman

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erin Peck ◽  
◽  
Thomas P. Guilderson ◽  
Maureen H. Walczak ◽  
Emerson Webb ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Seth E. Stapleton ◽  
Cole C. McDaniel ◽  
William F. Cofer ◽  
David I. McLean

The main goals of this research were to evaluate typical 1950s and 1960s as-built bridge columns in western Washington State in large subduction zone earthquakes and to investigate the dependency of failure mechanisms on loading history. Eight displacement histories were applied to eight nominally identical, half-scale, circular reinforced concrete columns expected to respond primarily in flexure (flexure-dominated). The main design deficiencies were a short longitudinal reinforcement lap splice at the base of the column (35 db) and inadequate transverse reinforcement. Test results showed that the failure mode of reinforced concrete columns was controlled by the column loading history. Three distinct failure mechanisms were observed for columns with an aspect ratio of approximately 4.2, assuming symmetric, double-curvature behavior. Large initial displacements greater than six times the effective yield displacement (Δ y) were likely to result in shear failures. Columns experiencing many displacements less than 4Δ y were likely to fail because of longitudinal reinforcement buckling. Columns subjected to several displacement excursions less than 4Δ y followed by an excursion greater than 6Δ y were likely to fail by longitudinal reinforcement slipping within the splice region. Despite the deficiencies present in circular reinforced concrete bridge columns built before 1975 in western Washington State, this study showed that flexure-dominated columns with a 35 db lap splice in multiple-column bent, three-or four-span bridges were not likely to experience significant damage in the predicted Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake. However, other components of the bridge need to be assessed to determine whether the global bridge response is acceptable under the predicted Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake.


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