Study and modelling of rapid shoreline displacement due to coseismic subsidence along the Kamchatka subduction zone

The first studies of geological evidences of coastal coseismic subsidence (associated with subduction-zone earthquakes) were carried out in Russia at the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, in Kamchatka. We developed a special method based on tephrostratigraphy and tephrochronology, descriptions and dating of the soil-pyroclastic sequence (SPS) overlying the coastal wave-build beach ridges. Three seismic events accompanied by coastal coseismic subsidence were detected in the northern part of Avachinsky Bay during the past ~5 thousand years. We found subsidence from one of the greatest historical tsunamigenic earthquake (1952 AD) south of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. We identified, that 5 events of coastal coseismic subsidence had occurred during the past ~6 thousand years at the coast of Kronotsky Bay and Shipunsky Peninsula. Amplitudes of subsidence were estimated by geological data using three different methods. Erosion of the active beach and marine accumulative terrace becomes active after coastal subsidence. We calculated the shoreline retreat process and the amount of horizontal erosion by numerical simulation using Bruun rule. In some areas, shoreline retreat was about 300 m according to the model results.

New conditional, scenario-based, and non-conditional cumulative absolute velocity models for subduction tectonic settings

The PEER NGA-Sub ground-motion intensity measure database is used to develop new conditional ground-motion models (CGMMs), a set of scenario-based models, and non-conditional models to estimate the cumulative absolute velocity ([Formula: see text]) of ground motions from subduction zone earthquakes. In the CGMMs, the median estimate of [Formula: see text] is conditioned on the estimated peak ground acceleration ([Formula: see text]), the time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the top 30 m of the soil ([Formula: see text]), the earthquake magnitude ([Formula: see text]), and the spectral acceleration at the period of 1 s ([Formula: see text]). Multiple scenario-based [Formula: see text] models are developed by combining the CGMMs with pseudo-spectral acceleration ([Formula: see text]) ground-motion models (GMMs) for [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] to directly estimate [Formula: see text] given an earthquake scenario and site conditions. Scenario-based [Formula: see text] models are capable of capturing the complex ground-motion effects (e.g. soil non-linearity and regionalization effects) included in their underlying [Formula: see text]/[Formula: see text] GMMs. This approach also ensures the consistency of the [Formula: see text] estimates with a [Formula: see text] design spectrum. In addition, two non-conditional [Formula: see text] GMMs are developed using Bayesian hierarchical regressions. Finally, we present comparisons between the developed models. The comparisons show that if non-conditional GMMs are properly constrained, they are consistent with scenario-based GMMs. The [Formula: see text] GMMs developed in this study advance the performance-based earthquake engineering practice in areas affected by subduction zone earthquakes.

Estimation of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Spectral Acceleration (Sa) Vertical Component for Interface Subduction Zone Earthquakes of North-east India (NEI) and Adjacent Regions

This article presented ground motion model (GMM) for vertical peak ground acceleration (PGA) and pseudo spectral acceleration (Sa) at 5 % damping for North-east India (NEI) and adjacent regions at a time period of 0.01 to 5 s, and hypocentral distance 40 to 300 km. We used combined point source (4.5 ≤ Mw ≤ 6.5) and finite fault model (6.5 < Mw ≤ 9.5) (refer as combined model) to develop GMM for vertical component of ground motion (VCGM) for the region. The vertical GMM obtained is validated with the available recorded events in NEI and adjacent regions for the interface subduction zone earthquakes. It is observed that peak ground accelerations and spectral accelerations are 55 to 65% lesser than the horizontal components of ground motions. VCGM parameters obtained in this study play an important role in designing low rise buildings and linear superstructures such as bridges, silos and chimneys.

Spectral damping scaling factors for horizontal components of ground motions from subduction earthquakes using NGA-Subduction data

This article develops global models of damping scaling factors (DSFs) for subduction zone earthquakes that are functions of the damping ratio, spectral period, earthquake magnitude, and distance. The Next Generation Attenuation for subduction earthquakes (NGA-Sub) project has developed the largest uniformly processed database of recorded ground motions to date from seven subduction regions: Alaska, Cascadia, Central America and Mexico, South America, Japan, Taiwan, and New Zealand. NGA-Sub used this database to develop new ground motion models (GMMs) at a reference 5% damping ratio. We worked with the NGA-Sub project team to develop an extended database that includes pseudo-spectral accelerations (PSA) for 11 damping ratios between 0.5% and 30%. We use this database to develop parametric models of DSF for both interface and intraslab subduction earthquakes that can be used to adjust any subduction GMM from a reference 5% damping ratio to other damping ratios. The DSF is strongly influenced by the response spectral shape and the duration of motion; therefore, in addition to the damping ratio, the median DSF model uses spectral period, magnitude, and distance as surrogate predictor variables to capture the effects of the spectral shape and the duration of motion. We also develop parametric models for the standard deviation of DSF. The models presented in this article are for the RotD50 horizontal component of PSA and are compared with the models for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions. Some noticeable differences arise from the considerably longer duration of interface records for very large magnitude events and the enriched high-frequency content of intraslab records, compared with shallow crustal earthquakes. Regional differences are discussed by comparing the proposed global models with the data from each subduction region along with recommendations on the applicability of the models.

Ground-Motion Intensity Measure Correlations on Interface and Intraslab Subduction Zone Earthquakes Using the NGA-Sub Database

ABSTRACT The NGA-Sub (subduction zone earthquake) database developed by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research center is used to derive new correlation coefficients for a number of ground-motion intensity measure (IM) parameters from ground motions in subduction zone earthquakes, considering both interface and intraslab tectonic settings. The IMs include peak ground acceleration, pseudospectral accelerations with periods from 0.01 to 10 s, Arias intensity, cumulative absolute velocity, peak ground velocity, and significant duration. Comparisons of the estimated correlation coefficients for ground motions from the interface and intraslab tectonic settings generally show a good agreement. Our estimations are also in good agreement with correlation coefficients estimated in previous studies that used ground motions from shallow crustal earthquakes, supporting the concept that any variation in correlation coefficients comes from spectral shape (i.e., the distribution of peaks and troughs) rather than tectonic region. This study also explores the influence of parameters such as magnitude, distance, and site conditions on the estimated correlation coefficients. We did not find apparent trends of the correlation coefficients with respect to these parameters. Finally, we propose analytical models to estimate correlation coefficients between the IMs explored in this study, considering both subduction interface and intraslab tectonic settings.

Subduction zone heterogeneity observed across the magnitude spectrum for megathrust earthquakes

&lt;p&gt;Observations from recent great subduction zone earthquakes highlight the influence of spatial geologic heterogeneity on overall rupture characteristics, such as areas of high co-seismic slip, and resulting tsunami generation.&amp;#160; Defining the relevant spatial heterogeneity is thus important to understanding potential hazards associated with the megathrust. The more frequent, smaller magnitude earthquakes that commonly occur in subduction zones are often used to help delineate the spatial heterogeneity.&amp;#160; Here we provide an overview of several subduction zones, including Costa Rica, Mexico, and Cascadia, highlighting connections between the small earthquake source characteristics and rupture behavior of larger earthquakes.&amp;#160; Estimates of small earthquake locations and stress drop are presented in each location, utilizing data from coastal and/or ocean bottom seismic stations.&amp;#160; These seismicity characteristics are then compared with other geologic and geophysical parameters, such as upper and lower plate characteristics, geodetic locking, and asperity locations from past large earthquakes. &amp;#160;For example, in the Cascadia subduction zone, we find clusters of small earthquakes located in regions of previous seamount subduction, with variations in earthquake stress drop reflecting potentially disrupted upper plate material deformed as a seamount passed.&amp;#160; Other variations in earthquake location and stress drop can be correlated with observed geodetic locking variations.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;

Ground-Motion Model for Deep Intraslab Subduction Zone Earthquakes of Northeastern India (NEI) and Adjacent Regions

ABSTRACT In this study, a ground-motion model (GMM) for deep intraslab subduction zone earthquakes in northeastern India (NEI) and adjacent regions, including portions of Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, Myanmar, and Nepal, is developed. Strong-motion data for deep intraslab earthquakes in NEI are very sparse, so it is not possible to develop a robust empirical GMM; hence, we used the stochastic point-source model to develop a new GMM. The model is based on ground-motion simulations of 36,500 Mw 5–8 earthquakes and epicentral distances of 50–300 km. We used region-specific key seismic parameters, for example, stress parameter, quality factor, and path duration in ground-motion simulation. Sensitivity analyses were also performed to evaluate the bias of each key seismic input parameter. We compared our GMM with the existing strong-motion data and compared our model with those of Lin and Lee (2008), Abrahamson et al. (2016), and Idini et al. (2017), which were developed for intraslab earthquakes based on VS30 and hypocentral depth. Our model gives higher values compared with their GMMs. Both peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration values are estimated for NEI and adjacent regions intraslab earthquakes.