scholarly journals Is there Consumer Risk-Pooling in the Open Economy? The Evidence Reconsidered

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Minford ◽  
Zhirong Ou ◽  
Zheyi Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Single Equation ◽  
P Value ◽  
Uncovered Interest Parity ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Risk Pooling ◽  
Monte Carlo Experiments ◽  
Consumer Risk ◽  
Inference Test ◽  
Interest Parity

AbstractWe revisit the evidence on consumer risk-pooling and uncovered interest parity. Widely used single-equation tests are strongly biased against both. Using the full-model, Indirect Inference test, which is unbiased and has Goldilocks power according to Monte Carlo experiments, we find that both the risk-pooling hypothesis and its weaker UIP version are generally accepted as part of a full world DSGE model. The fact that the risk-pooling hypothesis, with its implication of strong cross-border consumer linkage, has passed this test with generally the highest p-value, suggests that it deserves serious attention from policy-makers looking for a relevant model with which to discuss international monetary and other business cycle policies.

An Analysis of the Link between Water Infrastructure Financing and Water Provision South Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3(J)) ◽  
pp. 74-83
Author(s):  
Lerato C. Bapela ◽  
Collins C. Ngwakwe ◽  
Mokoko P. Sebola
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
P Value ◽  
Unique Contribution ◽  
Water Infrastructure ◽  
Control Variables ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Infrastructure Finance ◽  
Water Provision

This paper evaluated the relationship between water infrastructure financing and water provision in South Africa. The research followed a quantitative research design; secondary data for water infrastructure financing and water provision in South Africa was obtained from the Trans - Caledon Tunneling Agency (TCTA) and the World Bank for the period 1994 - 2014 . The regression results indicated two separate findings which offers unique contribution to the current literature; results from water asset finance as a single independent variable on water provision showed a significant relationship. However, an addition of two control variables , corruption and violence, neutralised the effectiveness of water asset finance on water provision to the extent that water asset finance became less significant with a P value of 0.05. The paper makes a nuance contribution from the findings, which specifically is that finance alone may not deliver target water provision if corruption and violence is left unbridled. The paper thus recommends the need for public policy makers to control the rate of corruption and violence to enable effective application of water infrastructure finance in water provision. The paper also recommends the need for further research on other government departments to integrate corruption and violence as control variables. 

Uncovered interest parity and the peso problem: the Brazilian case

2001 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 179-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adolfo Sachsida ◽  
Roberto Ellery ◽  
Joanílio Rodolpho Teixeira
Keyword(s):  
Uncovered Interest Parity ◽  
Interest Parity ◽  
Brazilian Case

scholarly journals An Ex-Post Investigation Of Interest Rate Parity In Asian Emerging Markets

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bahram Adrangi ◽  
Kambiz Raffiee ◽  
Todd M. Shank
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Uncovered Interest Parity ◽  
Interest Rate Parity ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Interest Parity ◽  
Asian Emerging Markets

This paper investigates the uncovered interest parity theory for the three emerging markets of Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand. The study provides evidence on the efficiency of the currency markets of these economies. In this paper we test for the uncovered interest parity because futures markets for currencies of most emerging markets are not well developed. Furthermore, short- term exchange rate supply and demand are often dominated by the uncovered international investments. Several statistical tests are applied in an attempt to detect evidence of uncovered interest parity. We find there is evidence that the currencies of higher interest rate emerging economies tend to depreciate in the future spot market. However, our test results indicate that this relationship does not support the uncovered interest parity strictly. Arbitrage opportunities remain for a longer periods than predicted by the uncovered interest parity. Furthermore, these abnormal gains are not random and could be predicted by a well designed econometric model. These findings are consistent with empirical findings surrounding uncovered interest parity for mature markets of the world.

scholarly journals For Rich or for Poor: When does Uncovered Interest Parity Hold?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maurice J Roche ◽  
Michael J Moore
Keyword(s):  
Uncovered Interest Parity ◽  
Interest Parity

For Rich or for Poor: When does Uncovered Interest Parity Hold?

scholarly journals Análisis de la integración y dependencia de las políticas monetarias de la Unión Europea

2013 ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
María del Carmen González Velasco ◽  
Roque Brinckmann
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
European Central Bank ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Uncovered Interest Parity ◽  
European Central ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
Interest Parity

En este artículo se efectúa un análisis de la integración y dependencia de las políticas monetarias de la Unión Europea y, en concreto, de las políticas monetarias de la Unión Económica yMonetaria y de la zona no euro para el periodo comprendido entre Enero de 1999 y Septiembre 2009. Se aplica la metodología de la cointegración de Engle y Granger (1987) y de Johansen(1988) para contrastar la hipótesis de la paridad de tipos de interés no cubierta y se llega a la conclusión de que ambas políticas están cointegradas porque mantienen una relación de equilibrio a largo plazo. También se deduce una dependencia de la política del Banco de Inglaterra de la política del Banco Central Europeo, lo que confirma la importancia y el liderazgo de la Unión Económica y Monetaria.<br /><br />This study is to investigate the long-run relationship and dependence between the UME´s monetary policy and non-euro zone´s monetary policy for the period from January 4, 1999 to September 30, 2009. We use cointegration methodology to test the Uncovered Interest Parity Hypothesis and the results indicate a long-run cointegration and empirical evidence testifies a leader-follower pattern between the two central banks. According to this pattern, the Bank of England does follow the European Central Bank.

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