Comparative performance of different probability distribution functions for maximum rainfall estimation at different time scales

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (20) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarate Suryakant Bajirao
2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-67
Author(s):  
Tariq H Karim ◽  
Dawod R Keya ◽  
Zahir A Amin

This study aimed to determine the best fit probability distribution of annual maximum rainfall using data from nine stations within Erbil province using different statistical analyses. Nine commonly used probability distribution functions, namely Normal, Lognormal (LN), one-parameter gamma (1P-G), 2P-G, 3P-G, Log Pearson, Weibull, Pareto, and Beta, were assessed. On the basis of maximum overall score, obtained by adding individual point scores from three selected goodness-of-fit tests, the best fit probability distribution was identified. Results showed that the 2P-G distribution and LN distribution were the best fit probability distribution functions for annual rainfall for the region. The analysis of annual rainfall records in Erbil city spanning from 1964 to 2013, covering three periods, also revealed significant temporal changes in the shape and scale parameter patterns of the fitted gamma distribution. Based on the reliable annual rainfall data in the region, the shape and scale parameters were then regionalized, hence it is possible to find the parameter values for any desired location within the study area. The Mann–Kendall test results indicated that there was a decreasing trend in rainfall over most of the study area in recent decades.


1997 ◽  
Vol 78 (10) ◽  
pp. 1904-1907 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weinan E ◽  
Konstantin Khanin ◽  
Alexandre Mazel ◽  
Yakov Sinai

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamed Farhadi ◽  
Manousos Valyrakis

<p>Applying an instrumented particle [1-3], the probability density functions of kinetic energy of a coarse particle (at different solid densities) mobilised over a range of above threshold flow conditions conditions corresponding to the intermittent transport regime, were explored. The experiments were conducted in the Water Engineering Lab at the University of Glasgow on a tilting recirculating flume with 800 (length) × 90 (width) cm dimension. Twelve different flow conditions corresponding to intermittent transport regime for the range of particle densities examined herein, have been implemented in this research. Ensuring fully developed flow conditions, the start of the test section was located at 3.2 meters upstream of the flume outlet. The bed surface of the flume is flat and made up of well-packed glass beads of 16.2 mm diameter, offering a uniform roughness over which the instrumented particle is transported. MEMS sensors are embedded within the instrumented particle with 3-axis gyroscope and 3-axis accelerometer. At the beginning of each experimental run, instrumented particle is placed at the upstream of the test section, fully exposed to the free stream flow. Its motion is recorded with top and side cameras to enable a deeper understanding of particle transport processes. Using results from sets of instrumented particle transport experiments with varying flow rates and particle densities, the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the instrumented particles kinetic energy, were generated. The best-fitted PDFs were selected by applying the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and the results were discussed considering the light of the recent literature of the particle velocity distributions.</p><p>[1] Valyrakis, M.; Alexakis, A. Development of a “smart-pebble” for tracking sediment transport. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Fluvial Hydraulics (River Flow 2016), St. Louis, MO, USA, 12–15 July 2016.</p><p>[2] Al-Obaidi, K., Xu, Y. & Valyrakis, M. 2020, The Design and Calibration of Instrumented Particles for Assessing Water Infrastructure Hazards, Journal of Sensors and Actuator Networks, vol. 9, no. 3, 36.</p><p>[3] Al-Obaidi, K. & Valyrakis, M. 2020, Asensory instrumented particle for environmental monitoring applications: development and calibration, IEEE sensors journal (accepted).</p>


Author(s):  
D. Xue ◽  
S. Y. Cheing ◽  
P. Gu

This research introduces a new systematic approach to identify the optimal design configuration and attributes to minimize the potential construction project changes. The second part of this paper focuses on the attribute design aspect. In this research, the potential changes of design attribute values are modeled by probability distribution functions. Attribute values of the design whose construction tasks are least sensitive to the changes of these attribute values are identified based upon Taguchi Method. In addition, estimation of the potential project change cost due to the potential design attribute value changes is also discussed. Case studies in pipeline engineering design and construction have been conducted to show the effectiveness of the introduced approach.


2014 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 1259-1265 ◽  
Author(s):  
David R. Novak ◽  
Keith F. Brill ◽  
Wallace A. Hogsett

Abstract An objective technique to determine forecast snowfall ranges consistent with the risk tolerance of users is demonstrated. The forecast snowfall ranges are based on percentiles from probability distribution functions that are assumed to be perfectly calibrated. A key feature of the technique is that the snowfall range varies dynamically, with the resultant ranges varying based on the spread of ensemble forecasts at a given forecast projection, for a particular case, for a particular location. Furthermore, this technique allows users to choose their risk tolerance, quantified in terms of the expected false alarm ratio for forecasts of snowfall range. The technique is applied to the 4–7 March 2013 snowstorm at two different locations (Chicago, Illinois, and Washington, D.C.) to illustrate its use in different locations with different forecast uncertainties. The snowfall range derived from the Weather Prediction Center Probabilistic Winter Precipitation Forecast suite is found to be statistically reliable for the day 1 forecast during the 2013/14 season, providing confidence in the practical applicability of the technique.


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