Can the resource curse be avoided? An empirical examination of the nexus between crude oil price and economic growth

Crude oil, as the most traded commodity in the world, exhibits prices with a clear influence on other commodities in the worldwide market. It also poses implications regarding the economic growth of oil-exporting and oil-importing nations. This study provides an unprecedented method of employing the indicator approach as proposed by the Conference Board, National Bureau of Economic Research, to construct a leading indicator for the global crude oil price. The results reveal that the constructed oil price indicator can predict the cyclical movement of the oil price by moving in advance of 3.5 months on average. This finding could provide better signaling to oil-related nations as well as other commodities that consider crude oil to be a leader in the market.

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TO study youth perception regarding impact on economic growth in view of decline in crude oil price in Oman

ACADEMICIA An International Multidisciplinary Research Journal ◽

10.5958/2249-7137.2020.00721.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (6) ◽

pp. 1385

Author(s):

Bakhtawar Durrani ◽

Lenin Kumar Nooney

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Crude Oil ◽

Oil Price ◽

Crude Oil Price

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Impact of FDI inflow, crude oil prices, and economic growth on CO2 emission in Tunisia: Symmetric and asymmetric analysis through ARDL and NARDL approach

Environmental Economics ◽

10.21511/ee.12(1).2021.01 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 1-13

Author(s):

Tarek Ghazouani

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Crude Oil ◽

Carbon Emissions ◽

Co2 Emission ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Oil Price ◽

Crude Oil Price ◽

Fdi Inflows ◽

Crude Oil Prices ◽

Long Run

This study explores the symmetric and asymmetric impact of real GDP per capita, FDI inflow, and crude oil price on CO2 emission in Tunisia for the 1972–2016 period. Using the cointegration tests, namely ARDL and NARDL bound test, the results show that the variables are associated in a long run relationship. Long run estimates from both approach confirms the validity of ECK hypothesis for Tunisia. Symmetric analysis reveals that economic growth and the price of crude oil adversely affect the environment, in contrast to FDI inflows that reduce CO2 emissions in the long run. Whereas the asymmetric analysis show that increase in crude oil price harm the environment and decrease in crude oil price have positive repercussions on the environment. The causality analysis suggests that a bilateral link exists between economic growth and carbon emissions and a one-way causality ranges from FDI inflows and crude oil prices to carbon emissions. Thus, some policy recommendations have been formulated to help Tunisia reduce carbon emissions and support economic development.

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Crude oil, natural gas, and economic growth: impact and causality analysis in Caspian Sea region

International Journal of Management and Economics ◽

10.2478/ijme-2018-0019 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 54 (3) ◽

pp. 169-184 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

S M Rashed Jahangir ◽

Betul Yuce Dural

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Natural Gas ◽

Crude Oil ◽

Caspian Sea ◽

Oil Price ◽

Crude Oil Price ◽

Causality Test ◽

Oil And Natural Gas ◽

Gas Price ◽

The Impact

Abstract The main objective of this study was to investigate the impact and causality of crude oil and natural gas on economic growth in the Caspian Sea region. Here, the study applies ordinary least square (OLS) method and Granger causality test using time series data from 1997 to 2015 to ascertain the impact and causality of crude oil and natural gas on economic growth. The results, according to the OLS method, evince that crude oil and natural gas have a significant impact on economic growth of the region. Alongside, considering causality test, gross domestic product (GDP) does Granger cause (unidirectional) crude oil price and export which denotes that GDP can help to forecast crude oil price and export; however, crude oil price and export cannot help to forecast GDP. Surprisingly, this direction is unlikely for GDP and natural gas. GDP and natural gas have unidirectional, but opposite causal relationship, i.e., natural gas price and export do Granger cause GDP which signify that natural gas price and export can help to forecast GDP; however, GDP cannot help to forecast crude oil price and export.

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Impact on economic growth due to decline in crude oil price in Oman – A youth perception

ACADEMICIA An International Multidisciplinary Research Journal ◽

10.5958/2249-7137.2017.00102.1 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 7 (11) ◽

pp. 22

Author(s):

Bakhtawar Durrani ◽

Lenin Kumar Nooney

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Crude Oil ◽

Oil Price ◽

Crude Oil Price

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An ARDL Approach on Crude Oil Price and Macroeconomic Variables

GATR Journal of Business and Economics Review ◽

10.35609/jber.2019.4.1(8) ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

pp. 68-73

Author(s):

Seuk Yen Phoong ◽

Seuk Wai Phoong

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Crude Oil ◽

Unemployment Rate ◽

Positive Relationship ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Oil Price ◽

Crude Oil Price ◽

Macroeconomic Variables ◽

Crude Oil Prices ◽

Ardl Approach

Objective - The removal of fuel subsidies by the Malaysian government in 2014 has been implement with the managed float system for fuel prices. Methodology/Technique - This study investigates the impact of the managed floating system of crude oil prices on the Malaysian economy using ARDL approach by looking at macroeconomic variables such as inflation, economic growth and unemployment rates. Findings - The results show that all of the variables have short lived relationship with oil prices whereby inflation and economic growth are positively related to oil prices. However, unemployment rate has a negative relationship with the changes of WTI crude oil prices. Novelty - The major input in the economy of Malaysia contributes to a positive relationship between inflation and oil prices, whilst the contribution of Malaysia being an oil-producing country results in the positive relationship of economic growth and oil price. Likewise, as oil prices are high, the increase in demand results in increase in job opportunities. Lastly, the correlation test shows that inflation and economic growth have a high positive correlation while unemployment rate has a low negative correlation with oil price. Type of Paper: Empirical. Keywords: ARDL; Crude Oil Price; GDP; Inflation; Unemployment. JEL Classification: E10, E30, E39. DOI: https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2019.4.1(8)

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Structural Effect of Oil Price Shocks and Food Importation on Economic Growth in Nigeria Using SVAR Model

International Business and Accounting Research Journal ◽

10.15294/ibarj.v2i1.30 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Sani Abdulrahman Bala ◽

Ali Alhassan

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Crude Oil ◽

Oil Price ◽

Oil Price Shocks ◽

Crude Oil Price ◽

Price Shocks ◽

Long Run ◽

Svar Model ◽

Food Imports

The study empirically examines the effect of oil price shocks and food importation on economic growth in Nigeria along with two control variables i.e. exchange rate and inflation using Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Model covering the period of 1970 to 2015. The result from SVAR short-run pattern and long-run pattern indicate that GDP has recently been affected by all variables in the model. More also, it indicates a significant permanent effect of crude oil price shocks and food imports on economic growth, while the result further indicates a transitory effect of exchange rate and inflation on economic growth. For significant t-value of the long run SVAR estimate matrix, confirms long effect of crude oil price shocks, food imports, exchange rate and inflation on economic growth in Nigeria. The results from structural response indicate that crude oil have high positive impact on GDP at the initial period and negative impact at the end of the period. Furthermore, food imports have high negative effect on GDP, while GDP response negatively to exchange rate and inflation rate from the period. The result from the structural decompositions indicates that crude oil price and food imports and exchange rate contribute more variability to GDP, while inflation contribute less variability in explaining the variation of GDP in Nigeria. The study recommends that government should come up with a policy that will focus on alternative sources of government revenue by investing more in real sectors especially agriculture in order to withstand vicissitudes of oil shocks in future.

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