The Fiscal Policy Dilemma: Cyclical Swings Dominated by Supply-Side Constraints

Author(s):  
MICHAEL L. WACHTER ◽  
SUSAN M. WACHTER
2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Ying Xie

From the beginning to the end, monetary policy has focused too much on the control of the supply side. At present, the single supply-based monetary policy is ineffective. Therefore, it is urgent to change the current single direct supply-side regulation and control policy and replace it with a non-single and indirect control policy that combines supply and demand. Based on machine learning algorithms, this paper constructs a monetary policy analysis model based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium methods to analyze the interactive effects of monetary policy and other policies. Moreover, this paper uses the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to simulate and analyze the economic effects of fiscal policy. In addition, this paper compares the economic effects of monetary policy and other policies and conducts verification and analysis through actual data. The obtained results show that the model constructed in this paper achieves the expected effect.


2009 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 227-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mr. Musleh ud Din ◽  
Ejaz Ghani ◽  
Tariq Mahmood

This paper explores the determinants of export performance at the level of firms in respect of their characteristics and supply side constraints. The analysis is based on a survey of export-oriented firms in four major sectors. The results indicate a relationship between the better performance of foreign-owned firms to their better know-how and resources compared to the domestically owned firms. Export performance is positively affected by the level of investment in market/client oriented technologies. Lack of certification of product and process standards is the main supply side constraint adversely affecting the firms’ export performance. Facilitation measures like export processing zones, internationally recognised testing labs, and industrial clusters would be helpful in improving the export performance of firms. JEL classification: F1, L1, L6 Keywords: Trade, Exports, Firms, Performance, Manufacturing


2020 ◽  
Vol 84 (3) ◽  
pp. 122-141
Author(s):  
Vardit Landsman ◽  
Stefan Stremersch

This article examines the effects of collective layoff announcements on sales and marketing-mix elasticities, accounting for supply-side constraints. The authors study 205 announcements in the automotive industry using a difference-in-differences model. They find that, following collective layoff announcements, layoff firms experience adverse changes in sales, advertising elasticity, and price elasticity. They explore the moderating role of announcement characteristics on these changes and find that collective layoff announcements by domestic firms and announcements that do not mention a decline in demand as a motive are more likely to be followed by adverse marketing-mix elasticity changes. On average, sales for the layoff firm in the layoff country are 8.7% lower following a collective layoff announcement than their predicted levels absent the announcement. Similarly, advertising elasticity is 9.8% lower and price elasticity is 19.2% higher than absent the announcement. Conversely, layoff firms typically decrease advertising spending in the country where collective layoffs have occurred, yet they do not change prices. These findings are relevant to marketing managers of firms undergoing collective layoffs and to analysts of collective layoff decisions.


2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 7
Author(s):  
Carmen Díaz-Roldán ◽  
José Luis Parada-Rodríguez ◽  
Nieves Carmona-González

Aim: Analyse the effects of stabilization policies on youth unemployment, using government deficit besides the use of fiscal policy by the supply side; aimed to characterize the economic framework conditions under which fiscal policy could reduce youth unemployment. Design/Research methods: We consider an economic framework featuring the use of monetary and fiscal rules within a monetary union. In this scenario, that should be representative of the Eurozone, we will analyse the effects of stabilization policies when dealing with a financial crisis which produces contractive effects on output and on employment. We will pay special attention to the conservativeness of the central bank, the degree of austerity of the fiscal authorities and the initial level of government debt. Those characteristics prove to be crucial for the sustainability of economic policies packages based on fiscal consolidation and the use of fiscal policy instruments by the supply side, when trying to deal with unemployment. And given that in the financial crisis effects have been hit Eurozone countries in a different manner, we will also differentiate monetary union’s member countries according with their government debt and their unemployment path. Conclusions/findings: Fiscal authorities should be no austere for fighting youth unemployment, when using fiscal policy by the supply side. In other words, when optimizing their loss function, they should give more weight to the output stabilization goal that to the government deficit reduction. Originality/value of the article: Allowing for the use of both monetary and fiscal policy rules, in the scenario of a monetary union, our results could help us to stablish the conditions under which fiscal policy could help to alleviate youth unemployment.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (53) ◽  
Author(s):  

Malaysia entered the pandemic from a robust economic position but has nonetheless been significantly affected. A synchronous fiscal, monetary and financial policy response has helped cushion the economic impact. As a result, after a deep recession in 2020, and assuming the pandemic is brought under control in Malaysia and globally, growth would rebound to 6.5 percent in 2021 as supply side constraints are lifted and domestic and external demand recover. Large downside risks will remain.


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