The Limited Applicability of Fuzzy Set Theory to Fault Tree Analysis — Negative Probabilities and Other Anomalies

Author(s):  
Kirsten Bischoff ◽  
Matthias Bretschneider
2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rongxing Duan ◽  
Jinghui Fan

Fault tree analysis is a well-structured, precise, and powerful tool for system evaluation. However, the conventional approach has been found to be inadequate to deal with the absence of fault data, failure dependency, and uncertainty problems. This paper presents a comprehensive study on the evaluation of data communication system (DCS) using dynamic fault tree approach based on fuzzy set. It makes use of the advantages of the dynamic fault tree for modelling, fuzzy set theory for handling uncertainty, and Bayesian network (BN) for inference ability. Specifically, it adopts expert elicitation and fuzzy set theory to evaluate the failure rates of the basic events for DCS and uses a dynamic fault tree model to capture the dynamic failure mechanisms. Furthermore, some reliability parameters can be calculated by mapping a dynamic fault tree into an equivalent BN. The results show that the proposed method is more flexible and adaptive than conventional fault tree analysis for fault diagnosis and reliability estimation of DCS.


2011 ◽  
Vol 110-116 ◽  
pp. 2416-2420 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Ping Yang

In case of fault tree analysis of large complex system, the probability of bottom event in dynamic fault tree is uncertain in some cases. To address the problem, the paper presented a dynamic fault tree analysis method based on fuzzy set computation. The method separates logic attributes and timing attributes of dynamic logic gates. It can convert dynamic fault tree into static fault tree not considering timing constraints and obtain minimum cut set of static fuzzy fault tree with set operations, then the concept of minimum cut set is extended to dynamical minimum cut sequence. Thus, the dynamic fault tree was analyzed in both qualitative and quantitative aspects, which solve the problem that it is difficult to assign value of event probability in previously process.


IEEE Access ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 980-996 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sohag Kabir ◽  
Tan Kim Geok ◽  
Mohit Kumar ◽  
Mohammad Yazdi ◽  
Ferdous Hossain

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Di Wang ◽  
Enbin Liu ◽  
Liyu Huang

Event tree is a logical analysis of probability for outcome events by initiating event and probable subsequent events. However, the evaluation of every single event may contain vague information or cannot be described by a crisp number of probabilities in application. So this paper aims to develop an event tree by using fuzzy set theory with a combination of triangle membership function and trapezoidal membership function to quantify the vagueness of information and calculate the outcome probability. Through the analysis of an oil pipeline leakage accident, the method provided is fully used and the expansion of accident can be tracked through different paths of event tree.


Author(s):  
Ying-Yi Hong ◽  
Lun-Hui Lee ◽  
Heng-Hsing Cheng

This paper proposed a method for reliability assessment of the protection system for a switchyard by fault-tree analysis considering uncertainty of unavailability for an element. Unavailability of an element with uncertainty is expressed with the fuzzy set. The fault-tree analysis incorporated with the fuzzy set is employed to conduct the reliability assessment. The importance of elements influencing reliability can be achieved by the Fuzzy Importance Measure. Compared with traditional methods, the fault-tree analysis requires less computation. In this paper, a 345 kV switchyard in the 3rd nuclear power plant in Taiwan serves as an example for illustrating the results of the proposed method.


2013 ◽  
Vol 470 ◽  
pp. 707-711 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Lu Zhang ◽  
Rui Jun Zhang ◽  
Xin Xin Si

In order to overcome the shortage of dealing with fuzzy information and uncertainty of fault logical relationship in traditional importance measures, the fuzzy set theory is presented to fault tree, using fuzzy number to describe the fault states of system and components, and using fuzzy subsets to denote the fault rates, a fuzzy fault tree of T-S modle was established. And a model of fuzzy fault tree was established and a T-S fuzzy importance analysis method was presented on the basis of T-S analysis method. The method is applied in the importance analysis of hydraulic system, and proving that the algorithms are feasible.


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