Benchmarking the failure assessment of perishable product supply chain using fault tree approach: insights from apple case study of India

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to facilitate perishable product supply chain (PPSC) managers and practitioners to assess PPSC failure events. The paper proposed fault tree methodology for assessing failures associated with PPSC for evaluating the performance in terms of effective PPSC management adoption.Design/methodology/approachInitially, different failure events were identified from literature and semi-structured interviews from experts. Fault tree model was developed from the identified failure events. Probability of failure events was calculated using Poisson distribution based on the annual reports and interviews conducted from experts. Further, qualitative analysis – minimum cut sets (MCSs), structural importance coefficient (SIC) – and quantitative analysis – Birnbaum importance measure (BIM), criticality importance factor (CIF) and diagnosis importance factor (DIF) – were performed for ranking of failure events. In this study, fault tree development and analysis were conducted on apple supply chain to present the authenticity of this method for failure analysis.FindingsThe findings indicate that the failure events, given as failure at production and procurement (A2), that is, involvement of middleman (BE3), handling and packaging failure (BE4) and transportation failure (A3), hold the highest-ranking scores in analysis of PPSC using fault tree approach.Originality/valueThis research uses the modularization approach for evaluation of failure events of PPSC. This paper explores failures related to PPSC for efficient management initiatives in apple supply chain context. The paper also provides suggestion from managerial perspective with respect to each failure event.

Noise source importance in linear stochastic models of biological systems that grow, shrink, wander, or persist

While noise is an important factor in biology, biological processes often involve multiple noise sources, whose relative importance can be unclear. Here we develop tools that quantify the importance of noise sources in a network based on their contributions to variability in a quantity of interest. We generalize the edge importance measures proposed by Schmidt and Thomas [1] for first-order reaction networks whose steady-state variance is a linear combination of variance produced by each directed edge. We show that the same additive property extends to a general family of stochastic processes subject to a set of linearity assumptions, whether in discrete or continuous state or time. Our analysis applies to both expanding and contracting populations, as well as populations obeying a martingale (“wandering”) at long times. We show that the original Schmidt-Thomas edge importance measure is a special case of our more general measure, and is recovered when the model satisfies a conservation constraint

Operational failure assessment of Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) in harsh offshore environments

For an effective integrity assessment of marine robotic in offshore environments, the elements’ failure characteristics need to be understood. A structured probabilistic methodology is proposed for the operational failure assessment (OFA) characteristics of ROV. The first step is to assess the likely failure mode of the ROV system and its support systems. This captures the interaction and failure induced events during operation. The identified potential failure modes are further developed into logical connectivity based on the cause-effect relationship. The logical framework is modeled using the fault tree analysis technique to predict the ROV operational failure probability in an uncertain harsh environment. The fault tree analysis captured the logical relationship between the primary, intermediate, and top events probability. The importance measure criteria were adopted to identify the most probable events, links, and their importance on the failure propagation. The model was demonstrated with an ROV for deep arctic water subsea operations. The result identified the control system, communication linkages, human factor, among others, as most critical in the ROV operational failure. The methodology’s application provides core information on the Mean time between failure (MTBF) of the ROV system that could aid integrity management and provides a guide on early remedial action against total failure.

Elastic Correlation Adjusted Regression (ECAR) scores for high dimensional variable importance measuring

Investigation of the genetic basis of traits or clinical outcomes heavily relies on identifying relevant variables in molecular data. However, characteristics such as high dimensionality and complex correlation structures of these data hinder the development of related methods, resulting in the inclusion of false positives and negatives. We developed a variable importance measure method, termed the ECAR scores, that evaluates the importance of variables in the dataset. Based on this score, ranking and selection of variables can be achieved simultaneously. Unlike most current approaches, the ECAR scores aim to rank the influential variables as high as possible while maintaining the grouping property, instead of selecting the ones that are merely predictive. The ECAR scores’ performance is tested and compared to other methods on simulated, semi-synthetic, and real datasets. Results showed that the ECAR scores improve the CAR scores in terms of accuracy of variable selection and high-rank variables’ predictive power. It also outperforms other classic methods such as lasso and stability selection when there is a high degree of correlation among influential variables. As an application, we used the ECAR scores to analyze genes associated with forced expiratory volume in the first second in patients with lung cancer and reported six associated genes.

Importance measure-based maintenance strategy considering maintenance costs

Maintenance is an important way to ensure the best performance of repairable systems. This paper considers how to reduce system maintenance cost while ensuring consistent system performance. Due to budget constraints, preventive maintenance (PM) can be done on only some of the system components. Also, different selections of components to be maintained can have markedly different effects on system performance. On the basis of the above issues, this paper proposes an importance-based maintenance priority (IBMP) model to guide the selection of PM components. Then the model is extended to find the degree of correlation between two components to be maintained and a joint importance-based maintenance priority (JIBMP) model to guide the selection of opportunistic maintenance (OM) components is proposed. Also, optimization strategies under various conditions are proposed. Finally, a case of 2H2E architecture is used to demonstrate the proposed method. The results show that generators in the 2E layout have the highest maintenance priority, which further explains the difference in the importance of each component in PM.

Reliability Analysis of the Control and Automation Systems in Electrical Substations

This work consists in a detailed reliability analysis of the control, automation, and communication equipment in an IEC61850 based digital electrical substation considering four different communication architectures. Three preventive maintenance plans are defined according to Birnbaum’s importance measure in order to evaluate if a more detailed planning proves to be beneficial. The method used to perform the substation’s reliability and availability analysis consists in a Markov-Monte Carlo algorithm. Moreover, a quantitative cost analysis throughout the substation’s life cycle is conducted to conclude about the economic feasibility of each architecture, allowing more objective decisions to be taken when considering the reliability requirements for electric power systems.<br>This paper is an extract from the academic research conducted by the first author as requirement to obtain the Master of Science Degree in Electrical and Computer Engineering at Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, under the supervision of Prof. Paulo J. Costa Branco and the co-supervision of Eng. Andrés A. Zúñiga.<br><br>

Reliability Analysis of the Control and Automation Systems in Electrical Substations

This work consists in a detailed reliability analysis of the control, automation, and communication equipment in an IEC61850 based digital electrical substation considering four different communication architectures. Three preventive maintenance plans are defined according to Birnbaum’s importance measure in order to evaluate if a more detailed planning proves to be beneficial. The method used to perform the substation’s reliability and availability analysis consists in a Markov-Monte Carlo algorithm. Moreover, a quantitative cost analysis throughout the substation’s life cycle is conducted to conclude about the economic feasibility of each architecture, allowing more objective decisions to be taken when considering the reliability requirements for electric power systems.<br>This paper is an extract from the academic research conducted by the first author as requirement to obtain the Master of Science Degree in Electrical and Computer Engineering at Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, under the supervision of Prof. Paulo J. Costa Branco and the co-supervision of Eng. Andrés A. Zúñiga.<br><br>

Resilience Assessment: A Performance-Based Importance Measure

The resilience of a system can be considered as a function of its reliability and recoverability. Hence, for effective resilience management, the reliability and recoverability of all components which build up the system need to be identified. After that, their importance should be identified using an appropriate model for future resource allocation. The critical infrastructures are under dynamic stress due to operational conditions. Such stress can significantly affect the recoverability and reliability of a system‘s components, the system configuration, and consequently, the importance of components. Hence, their effect on the developed importance measure needs to be identified and then quantified appropriately. The dynamic operational condition can be modeled using the risk factors. However, in most of the available importance measures, the effect of risk factors has not been addressed properly. In this paper, a reliability importance measure has been used to determine the critical components considering the effect of risk factors. The application of the model has been shown through a case study.