<em>Abstract.</em>—The shortnose sturgeon, <em>Acipenser brevirostrum</em>, is a long-lived species that grows slowly, matures at an advanced age, and spawns only intermittently. In the Connecticut River, there are two distinct subpopulations of shortnose sturgeon, which have been separated by the Holyoke Dam for 157 years. My research addressed the viability and persistence for these two separate populations and the effects of dispersal, variation in survival and reproduction, and catastrophes. My risk-based approach used a stage-based metapopulation model that I constructed in RAMAS<sup>®</sup> GIS incorporating the available data. Based on the existing data, this population model for the shortnose sturgeon metapopulation in the Connecticut River made several predictions. The observed stability of the two subpopulations was possible either: with reproduction in both upper and lower subpopulations and small to moderate rates of dispersal between them; or with no reproduction in the lower subpopulation, very high reproduction in the upper subpopulation and high rate of net downstream dispersal. My results provided estimates of extinction risk for the shortnose sturgeon metapopulation under various management options and highlighted three key areas for future research, demonstrating the value of a risk-based approach. This approach is particularly useful for management of long-lived aquatic species.
