Abstract
Introduction Patients with acutely decompensated (AD) cirrhosis are at risk for developing acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) syndrome. This syndrome is associated with a high short-term mortality rate. The aim of our study was to identify reliable early predictors of developing ACLF in cirrhotic patients with AD.
Patients and Methods We assessed 84 cirrhotic patients admitted for AD without ACLF on admission. We performed routine blood testing and detailed ultrasound Doppler studies of systemic arteries and mayor abdominal veins and arteries. We also calculated liver-specific and intensive care unit predictive scores. The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) was calculated for all variables that were significantly different between patients who developed ACLF and those who did not. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, as well as diagnostic accuracy predicting the short-term development of ACLF were determined.
Results of the 84 patients, 23 developed ACLF whereas 61 did not. In the univariate analysis, serum levels of creatinine and urea, prothrombin time ratio, MELD score, portal vein and femoral artery flow velocity as well as the renal and interlobar artery resistive indices (RI) were associated with the short-term development of ACLF. However, only interlobar artery RI had independent predictive value in the multivariate analysis. The AUROC value for RI of the interlobar arteries was 0.9971.
Conclusion On the first day of admission, ultrasound measurement of the RI of the interlobar arteries recognizes with high predictive accuracy those cirrhotic patients admitted with AD who will develop ACLF during hospital admission.
Main clinical characteristics of hospitalized cirrhotic patients with acute on chronic liver failure
