Novel dynamic forecasting model for building cooling loads combining an artificial neural network and an ensemble approach

The demand of building energy management has increased due to high energy saving potentials. Load monitor and disaggregation can provide useful information for building energy management systems with detailed and individual loads of the building, so corresponding energy efficient measures can be taken to reduce the energy consumption of buildings. The technique is investigated widely in residential buildings known as Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM). However, relevant studies are not sufficient for non-residential buildings, especially for the cooling loads. This paper proposes a NILM method for cooling load disaggregation using artificial neural network. The cooling load is disaggregated into four categories: building envelope load, occupant load, equipment load and fresh air load. Two approaches are used to realize the load disaggregation: one is based on the Fourier transfer of the cooling loads, the other takes the cooling load, dry-bulb temperature and humidity of outdoor air, and time as inputs. By implementing the methods in a metro station, the performance of the proposed method can be obtained. Results show that both approaches can realize the load disaggregation accurately, with a RMSE less than 11.2. The second approach is recommended with a higher accuracy.

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Operational Probabilistic Forecasting of Coastal Freak Waves by Using an Artificial Neural Network

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering ◽

10.3390/jmse8030165 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (3) ◽

pp. 165

Author(s):

Dong-Jiing Doong ◽

Shien-Tsung Chen ◽

Ying-Chih Chen ◽

Cheng-Han Tsai

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Artificial Neural Network ◽

Network Model ◽

Neural Network Model ◽

Artificial Neural Network Model ◽

Forecasting Model ◽

Probabilistic Forecasting ◽

Freak Waves ◽

Forecasting Models ◽

Artificial Neural

Coastal freak waves (CFWs) are unpredictable large waves that occur suddenly in coastal areas and have been reported to cause casualties worldwide. CFW forecasting is difficult because the complex mechanisms that cause CFWs are not well understood. This study proposes a probabilistic CFW forecasting model that is an advance on the basis of a previously proposed deterministic CFW forecasting model. This study also develops a probabilistic forecasting scheme to make an artificial neural network model achieve the probabilistic CFW forecasting. Eight wave and meteorological variables that are physically related to CFW occurrence were used as the inputs for the artificial neural network model. Two forecasting models were developed for these inputs. Model I adopted buoy observations, whereas Model II used wave model simulation data. CFW accidents in the coastal areas of northeast Taiwan were used to calibrate and validate the model. The probabilistic CFW forecasting model can perform predictions every 6 h with lead times of 12 and 24 h. The validation results demonstrated that Model I outperformed Model II regarding accuracy and recall. In 2018, the developed CFW forecasting models were investigated in operational mode in the Operational Forecast System of the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau. Comparing the probabilistic forecasting results with swell information and actual CFW occurrences demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed probabilistic CFW forecasting model.

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