Residential Short-Term Load Forecasting during Atypical Consumption Behavior

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is a fundamental tool for power networks’ proper functionality. As large consumers need to provide their own STLF, the residential consumers are the ones that need to be monitored and forecasted by the power network. There is a huge bibliography on all types of residential load forecast in which researchers have struggled to reach smaller forecasting errors. Regarding atypical consumption, we could see few titles before the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) restrictions, and afterwards all titles referred to the case of COVID-19. The purpose of this study was to identify, among the most used STLF methods—linear regression (LR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN)—the one that had the best response in atypical consumption behavior and to state the best action to be taken during atypical consumption behavior on the residential side. The original contribution of this paper regards the forecasting of loads that do not have reference historic data. As the most recent available scenario, we evaluated our forecast with respect to the database of consumption behavior altered by different COVID-19 pandemic restrictions and the cause and effect of the factors influencing residential consumption, both in urban and rural areas. To estimate and validate the results of the forecasts, multiyear hourly residential consumption databases were used. The main findings were related to the huge forecasting errors that were generated, three times higher, if the forecasting algorithm was not set up for atypical consumption. Among the forecasting algorithms deployed, the best results were generated by ANN, followed by ARIMA and LR. We concluded that the forecasting methods deployed retained their hierarchy and accuracy in forecasting error during atypical consumer behavior, similar to forecasting in normal conditions, if a trigger/alarm mechanism was in place and there was sufficient time to adapt/deploy the forecasting algorithm. All results are meant to be used as best practices during power load uncertainty and atypical consumption behavior.

Short Term load forecasting for a Captive Power Plant Using Artificial Neural Network

The irregularity of Indian grid system increases, with increase in the power demand. The quality of power supplied by the power grid is also poor due to continuous variation in frequency and voltage. To overcome this problem of power deficit, Captive Power Plants installed capacity has grown at a faster rate. Here short term load forecasting of Yara Fertilizers India Private limited installed at Babrala, Uttar Pradesh is performed using multi-layer feed-forward Neural network in MATLAB. The algorithm used is a Levenberg Marquardt algorithm. However, the training and results from ANN are very fast and accurate. Inputs given to the Neural Network are time, ambient air temperature from the compressor, cool air temperature at the compressor and IGV opening. The need, benefits and growth of CPP in India and use of ANN for short term load forecasting of CPP has been explained in detail in the paper.

Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization With Genetic Algorithm to Train Artificial Neural Networks for Short-Term Load Forecasting

This research proposes a new training algorithm for artificial neural networks (ANNs) to improve the short-term load forecasting (STLF) performance. The proposed algorithm overcomes the so-called training issue in ANNs, where it traps in local minima, by applying genetic algorithm operations in particle swarm optimization when it converges to local minima. The training ability of the hybridized training algorithm is evaluated using load data gathered by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand. The ANN is trained using the new training algorithm with one-year data to forecast equal 48 periods of each day in 2013. During the testing phase, a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is used to evaluate performance of the hybridized training algorithm and compare them with MAPEs from Backpropagation, GA, and PSO. Yearly average MAPE and the average MAPEs for weekdays, Mondays, weekends, Holidays, and Bridging holidays show that PSO+GA algorithm outperforms other training algorithms for STLF.

Short term load forecasting using LSTM ensembled network on utility scale load demand.

This work entails producing load forecasting through lstm and lstm ensembled networks and put up a comparative picture between the two. Our work establishes that lstm ensemble learning can produce a better prediction compared to single lstm networks. We tried to quantify the improvement and assess the economic impact that it can have on the utility companies.