Incorporating uncertainty about species’ potential distributions under climate change into the selection of conservation areas with a case study from the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska

2008 ◽  
Vol 141 (6) ◽  
pp. 1547-1559 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trevon Fuller ◽  
David P. Morton ◽  
Sahotra Sarkar
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Jiskra ◽  
Jeroen E. Sonke ◽  
Artem G. Lim ◽  
Sergey V. Loiko ◽  
Natalia Kosykh ◽  
...  

<p>Mercury (Hg) is a pollutant of great concern for indigenous populations in the Arctic, which are exposed to high dietary Hg from fish and marine mammal consumption. Hg in marine biota can be derived from direct atmospheric deposition to the Arctic Ocean or from terrestrial sources by river runoff. Permafrost soils thereby play a pivotal role in the Arctic Hg cycle by storing atmospheric Hg deposition and providing a reservoir for later mobilization to the Arctic Ocean. The stability of Hg in permafrost soils depends on the pathway of atmospheric Hg deposition and Hg release processes, i.e. reduction and re-emission to the atmosphere and transfer to river runoff. We combined Hg stable isotope with Hg flux measurements in a field study on the Arctic Coastal Plain in northern Alaska. We could show that gaseous elemental Hg uptake by vegetation represents 70% of total atmospheric Hg deposition. Atmospheric Hg uptake by vegetation results in a characteristic Hg isotope fingerprint. This fingerprint dominates Hg signatures in permafrost soils measured across the Arctic coastal plain and is also imprinted in marine mammals and Ocean sediments, suggesting that Hg from Arctic permafrost soils represent a major source to the Arctic Ocean. Knowing the pool and spatial distribution of Hg in permafrost soils is therefore essential to assess current Hg mobilization to aquatic ecosystems and potential future changes due to permafrost thaw and climate change. Two recent studies have used Hg to carbon (C) ratios, R<sub>HgC</sub>, measured in Alaskan permafrost mineral and peat soils, together with a northern soil carbon inventory, to estimate that these soils contain large amounts, 184 to 755 Gg of Hg in the upper 1 m. In a second part, we present new Hg and C data for six peat cores, down to mineral horizons, across a latitudinal permafrost gradient in the Western Siberian lowlands. Hg concentrations increase from south to north in all soil horizons, reflecting enhanced net accumulation of atmospheric gaseous elemental Hg by the vegetation Hg pump. We reviewed and estimate pan-arctic organic and mineral soil R<sub>HgC</sub> to be 0.19 and 0.77 Gg Pg<sup>-1</sup>, and use a soil C budget to revise the northern soil Hg pool to be 67 Gg (37-88 Gg, interquartile range (IQR)) in the upper 30 cm and 225 Gg (102-320 Gg, IQR) in the upper 1 m. Finally, we discuss how climate change may affect the mobilization of Hg from permafrost soils to the atmosphere and the Arctic Ocean.</p>


Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 295
Author(s):  
Yuan Gao ◽  
Anyu Zhang ◽  
Yaojie Yue ◽  
Jing’ai Wang ◽  
Peng Su

Suitable land is an important prerequisite for crop cultivation and, given the prospect of climate change, it is essential to assess such suitability to minimize crop production risks and to ensure food security. Although a variety of methods to assess the suitability are available, a comprehensive, objective, and large-scale screening of environmental variables that influence the results—and therefore their accuracy—of these methods has rarely been explored. An approach to the selection of such variables is proposed and the criteria established for large-scale assessment of land, based on big data, for its suitability to maize (Zea mays L.) cultivation as a case study. The predicted suitability matched the past distribution of maize with an overall accuracy of 79% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.72. The land suitability for maize is likely to decrease markedly at low latitudes and even at mid latitudes. The total area suitable for maize globally and in most major maize-producing countries will decrease, the decrease being particularly steep in those regions optimally suited for maize at present. Compared with earlier research, the method proposed in the present paper is simple yet objective, comprehensive, and reliable for large-scale assessment. The findings of the study highlight the necessity of adopting relevant strategies to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change.


1975 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 378-394 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. W. Sobczak

Regional and deep structure supported by drill hole, gravity, and seismic evidence is interpreted along five profiles—one across the Mackenzie Delta and four across the continental margin. Isostatic compensation has reduced the gravity effect of most structures but gravity anomalies are still sufficient to outline two major sedimentary basins—one very extensive and thick (>10 km) underlying the continental margin and Mackenzie Delta and the other narrow and shallow east and southeast of the Arctic Coastal Plain. A basement ridge separating these basins along the eastern side of the Arctic Coastal Plain is outlined by a trend of relative gravity highs.An arcuate belt of prominent elliptically-shaped free air gravity highs (peak values >100 mgal) over the continental break outlines an uncompensated region of mass excesses. These mass excesses are explained by pro-grading wedges (>2 km thick) of Quaternary and possibly Tertiary sediments that have displaced seawater and act as a load on the crust rather than by the alternative concepts of an uncompensated ridge or high density material in the basement.


2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 85-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
James D Ford ◽  
◽  
Jolène Labbé ◽  
Melanie Flynn ◽  
Malcolm Araos

The Condor ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 115 (4) ◽  
pp. 816-829 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah T. Saalfeld ◽  
Brooke L. Hill ◽  
Richard B. Lanctot

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