A prediction method based on wavelet transform and multiple models fusion for chaotic time series

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 ◽  
pp. 158-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tian Zhongda ◽  
Li Shujiang ◽  
Wang Yanhong ◽  
Sha Yi
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Wuwei Liu ◽  
Jingdong Yan

In recent years, people are more and more interested in time series modeling and its application in prediction. This paper mainly discusses a financial time series image algorithm based on wavelet analysis and data fusion. In this research, we conducted an in-depth study on the scale decomposition sequence and wavelet transform sequence in different scale domains of wavelet transform according to the scale change rule based on wavelet transform. We use wavelet neural network with different input neurons and hidden neurons to predict, respectively. Finally, the prediction results are integrated into the final prediction results based on the original time series by using wavelet reconstruction technology. Using RBF algorithm in neural network and SPSS Clementine, the wavelet transform sequences on five scales are modeled. Each network model has three layers: one input layer, one hidden layer, and one output layer, and each output layer has only one output element. In order to compare the prediction effect of the model proposed in this study, the ordinary RBF network is used to model and predict the log yield itself. When the input sample is 5, the minimum mean square error is obtained when the hidden layer is 6, and the mean square error is 1.6349. The mean square error of the training phase is 0.0209, and the validation error is 1.6141. The results show that the prediction results of the wavelet prediction method combined with the RBF network prediction method are better than those of wavelet prediction or RBF network prediction.


2006 ◽  
Vol 55 (4) ◽  
pp. 1666
Author(s):  
Meng Qing-Fang ◽  
Zhang Qiang ◽  
Mu Wen-Ying

2013 ◽  
Vol 712-715 ◽  
pp. 2415-2418
Author(s):  
Juan Liu ◽  
Xue Wei Bai ◽  
Dao Cai Chi

A Local Piecewise-Linearity Prediction method is presented, Based on the advantages and limitations of local prediction of chaotic time series. Taking time series of rainfall as example for prediction the rainfall of one city in Liaoning province, which includes the application of the largest Lyapunov exponent, Local-region method and Local Piecewise-Linearity method. The method proposed is proved practical in comparison with the observed data.


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