Price discovery process in the emerging sovereign CDS and equity markets

2014 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
pp. 117-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoffrey M. Ngene ◽  
M. Kabir Hassan ◽  
Nafis Alam
Keyword(s):  
Price Discovery ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Price Discovery Process

scholarly journals The Price Discovery Mechanism between Sovereign Bond and Sovereign CDS Market: Studies in Selected Countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ngan Bich Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Price Discovery ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Leading Role ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Pricing Process ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Price Discovery Process

This paper employs the multivariate VAR model to examine the mechanic work of price discovery process between sovereign CDS market and the associated sovereign bond market in contexts of five European and Asian countries, including Vietnam, Korea, Portugal, Italy and France from the beginning of 2008 to the end of April, 2017. The study accentuates on three aspects: the short-term interaction nexus between the sovereign CDS and the associated-sovereign bond market, the long-term co-movement between them and the discovery of which market plays the leading role in the pricing process. The results evidence the short-run and long-run relationship for the two markets. Particularly, the empirical test results support for the predominant role of the sovereign CDS market in the price discovery process in the bulk of sample entities. This might suggests for the governments to use CDS prices as the future indicator for predicting the volatility of debt markets.

The Incremental Value Relevance of Media Coverage of Earnings Announcements: Evidence from the Trading of Short Sellers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lynn Rees ◽  
Brady Twedt
Keyword(s):  
Media Coverage ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Value Relevance ◽  
Earnings Announcements ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Trading Behavior ◽  
Earnings Announcement ◽  
Short Sellers ◽  
The Media ◽  
Price Discovery Process

We investigate the relation between media coverage and the trading behavior of short sellers around earnings announcements. Prior research provides conflicting evidence on the role of the media, with some studies finding that the media can impede the price discovery process. Our evidence indicates that short sellers increase their activity in line with the tone of media coverage around earnings announcements, after controlling for earnings news and other factors that affect relative levels of short selling. Furthermore, we show that information in the media successfully forecasts earnings information in the days leading up to the earnings announcement, and that short sellers trade in a manner consistent with information reflected in media coverage preceding the earnings announcement. Our findings are consistent with information contained in the media having value relevance, and suggest that the media may help to facilitate the price discovery process around the release of earnings.

Spreading the Word: Price Discovery and Newswire Dissemination of Management Earnings Guidance

2015 ◽  
Vol 91 (1) ◽  
pp. 317-346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brady Twedt
Keyword(s):  
Price Discovery ◽  
Matched Control ◽  
Substantial Effect ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Earnings Guidance ◽  
Management Earnings Guidance ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Guidance Information ◽  
Price Discovery Process

ABSTRACT This study investigates the impact of dissemination on the efficiency of the price discovery process with respect to management earnings guidance disclosures. I first identify firm and guidance characteristics associated with the likelihood that guidance receives coverage in the Dow Jones Newswires. Using propensity score, within-firm, and returns-based matched control samples of guidance, I find that newswire dissemination is associated with larger initial price reactions and, more importantly, an increase in the speed with which guidance information is incorporated into price. I also find that newswire coverage affects the market's reaction to stand-alone versus bundled guidance and good versus bad news guidance. This study is the first to provide evidence of systematic variation, both across and within firms, in the breadth of guidance dissemination, and it shows that this variation has a substantial effect on how investors respond to guidance. JEL Classifications: G14; M41; L82.

Does CDS Premium Most Predict Sovereign Default Risk?

2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 495-530
Author(s):  
Ki Beom Binh ◽  
Seokjin Woo ◽  
Sang Min Lee
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Sovereign Default ◽  
Spot Rate ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Dollar Spot ◽  
Sovereign Default Risk ◽  
Sovereign Credit Risk ◽  
Price Discovery Process

This paper empirically analyzes the price discovery process between Korean sovereign CDS premium, spread of Korean government debt, Won-Dollar currency swap rate, and Won-Dollar FX rate. With the global financial and fiscal crisis, especially in the U.S. and Euro-zone, the interests in sovereign default risk have risen. Interests in CDS, an OTC credit derivative contract based on debt issuer’s default risk, also have increased. A large number of presses have reported that CDS premium would be the best international market indicator for the default risk taken or transferred. However, internationally the CDS market liquidity has not been sufficient enough to validate its properties. Hence, based on empirics, this paper discusses whether Korean sovereign CDS premium can be considered as an appropriate indicator of sovereign credit risk in the Korean economy. Other largely accepted indices which contain the similar information about Korean economic fundamental and Korean external sovereign credit risk are also analyzed and compared: the spread of Korean government debt, Won-Dollar Currency Swap Rate, and Won-Dollar FX rate. Our findings include: (a) in the price discovery process, Won-Dollar spot rate contributes to the price discovery especially most ‘during the financial crisis period’ and the ‘entire period’ (b) Within the period ‘after the financial crisis’, CDS premium and the other indices have mutual influences on the price discovery process higher than the period ‘before the financial crisis’ (c) while Won-Dollar forward rate shows the similar result with Won-Dollar spot rate, NDF rate and CDS premium make the largest mutual influence on price discovery in the period ‘before the financial crisis.’

Price Discovery Process and Volatility Spillover in Spot and Futures Markets: Evidences of Individual Stocks

2010 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 49-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
T Mallikarjunappa ◽  
E M Afsal
Keyword(s):  
Futures Markets ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Asymmetric Volatility ◽  
Spot Volatility ◽  
Price Discovery Process

This paper analyses information-based superiority of markets mainly with an objective of exploring arbitrage opportunities. It attempts to determine the lead-lag relationship between spot and futures markets in the Indian context by using high frequency price data of twelve individual stocks, observed at one-minute interval. The study applies the concept of co-integration and establishes the spot-futures relationship using Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) represented by EGARCH framework. To study the price discovery process in the two markets, five lags each of one-minute resolution for nine individual stocks and four lags for the remaining three stocks are chosen. The key results of the study are given below: There is a contemporaneous and bi-directional lead-lag relationship between the spot and futures markets. A feedback mechanism of short life is functional between the two markets. Price discovery occurs in both the markets simultaneously. There exists short-term disequilibrium that could be corrected in the next period. Volatility spillover from spot market to futures market is present in such a way that a decrease in spot volatility leads to a decrease in futures volatility. Volatility shocks are asymmetric and persistent in both the markets. Spillover from futures market to spot market is not significant. Neither spot nor futures assume a considerable leading role and neither of the markets is supreme in price discovery. In the case of 33.33 per cent of spot values and 33.33 per cent of futures values, there exists short-term disequilibrium that could be corrected in the next period by decreasing the prices. Spot market volatility spills over to futures market in most of the cases (66.66 %) and a decrease in spot volatility brings about a decrease in futures volatility in 50 per cent of the cases. Spillover effect from futures to spot market is present and significant in 91.66 per cent of stocks and is more than the spillover effect from spot to futures (50% valid cases). The markets are highly integrated. Asymmetric behaviour of volatility shocks is mixed in both the markets. Asymmetric volatility is detected in 50 per cent of the cases of spot market and 58.33 per cent cases of futures market. Stocks exhibiting asymmetric volatility show more sensitivity to negative shocks. There are no cases of market becoming more volatile in response to good news.

Regulatory overkill? Short-sales ban in Korea

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 673-699
Author(s):  
Jaemin Kim ◽  
Joon-Seok Kim ◽  
Sean Sehyun Yoo
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Short Selling ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Informational Efficiency ◽  
Short Sales ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stabilizing Effect ◽  
Price Discovery Process

Purpose The authors investigate the 2008-2009 short-sales ban in Korea, one of the most comprehensive and restrictive short-selling bans worldwide. The purpose of this paper is to examine: whether the ban stopped a destabilizing effect, if there was any, of short-selling activities; whether the ban improved or deteriorated the informational efficiency or the price discovery process of the stock market; and whether the ban had any impact on market liquidity. Design/methodology/approach Multiple regression; vector autoregression analysis; and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity analysis. Findings The authors find no evidence that short-sales have a market-destabilizing effect and thus, restricting short-selling has a market-stabilizing effect. On the contrary, the short-selling ban is associated with an increase in return volatility and a deterioration of the price discovery process, particularly for the stocks without derivatives traded on them. The authors also find evidence of a liquidity decrease for short-sale intensive stocks. However, the evidence is inconclusive as to whether the market efficiency and liquidity changes are solely the result of the short-sales ban or the compound effects of both the ban and the concurrent progress of the financial crisis. Originality/value The literature does not provide a conclusive view on the effects of short-sales or restrictions thereof on the stock market. Also, the existing research on recent worldwide shorting bans often lack empirical scope (e.g. 32 stocks for UK; three weeks for USA). In contrast, the short-sales ban in the Korean stock market, one of the most comprehensive and restrictive short-selling bans worldwide, lasted for eight months for all the listed stocks and is still in effect for financial stocks. The authors find no evidence that short-sales have a market-destabilizing effect and thus, restricting short-selling has a market-stabilizing effect.

scholarly journals Price discovery and Volatility.A Theoretical Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Edson Kambeu ◽  
Olipha Mpofu ◽  
Drayton Muchochoma
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Theoretical Approach ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Equilibrium Price ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Initial Analysis ◽  
Price Discovery Process

<p>In this paper we analyse and show how price discovery process influence the volatility of stocks. Using a theoretical approach, our initial analysis revealed that stocks experience ‘normal’ volatility as the price move from one equilibrium price to another as part of the price discovery process. Our further analysis revealed that, due to the inefficiency of financial markets, stocks also experience transitionary volatility which occurs when the price transition from one equilibrium price to another. The implication of these analytical findings means that the price discovery volatility effects can only be reduced by improving the efficiency of financial markets. Thus, we recommended that the financial microstructure be designed in a manner that promotes the efficiency of financial markets.      </p>

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